Logistics ƒ Buoyant container volume at major ports continues ƒ :Q3FY15 Result Preview : ICICI Securities, report

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Shipping & Logistics Monthly Report: Nov’14 :: ICICI Securities, link

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LOGISTICS :Q4FY12 RESULTS PREVIEW :Kotak Securities PDF link

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http://www.kotaksecurities.com/pdf/dmb/MorningInsight10042012.pdf


LOGISTICS
Performance of Logistics companies involved with container rail business,
CFS business and related business is strongly linked to performance of the
port sector in the country. With the container volumes in January and
February 2012 (March not available) at the 12 major ports of the country
growing to 1.26 mn tonnes ( +3% YoY) and minor ports like Mundra
estimated to grow much faster (14% CAGR), we expect the Logistics
companies in our coverage to report healthy growth in Q4FY12(except
Concor).
Container Corporation of India (SELL: Target Price - Rs 905)
 Q4FY12 consolidated revenue is expected to increase ~ 9 % YoY and ~ 4% QoQ
to Rs 10,850 mn in sync with growth in volumes at major ports. It is important to
note here that Concor primarily operates in Exim segment out of JNPT.
 The domestic volumes of the company are estimated to report a YoY drop of
~10%.  In the previous quarter Concor had reported a 13% YoY decline in domestic volumes primarily led by new railway policy effective Dec-2010. Railways
increased the specified rating of five commodities (cement, stone other than
marbles, iron & steel, alloys & metals, POL products) leading to higher haulage
by 100% to 275%. This led to Concor losing almost the entire volumes of these
commodities to road transportation.
 Operating profit is expected at Rs 2,824 mn which translates into an operating
margin of ~26 %, declining almost 50 bps YoY from 26.5% primarily due to increased competition in the Exim segment (waning pricing power) and higher
haulage cost in domestic segment ( not completely passed to customers till
date).
 Net profit for Q4FY12 is expected at Rs.2,233 mn against Rs 2,413 mn in Q3FY12
(-7% QoQ) and Rs 2,013 mn in Q4FY11.
 Due to recent hike in rail haulage effective 1st April, 2012; we had changed the
rating of the stock from Reduce to SELL.
Gateway Distriparks Ltd (Accumulate: Target Price - Rs 154)
 We expect GDL's Q4FY12 revenues to increase ~25% YoY and  ~8% QoQ to Rs
2,100 mn. This, we believe, would be largely led by congestion at JNPT and
Chennai port (it leads to higher CFS volumes and realization) and improved load
factor in the rail business.
 The rail business is expected to report healthy load factor of 80% (previous year
75%) with operating margin of 17%. This would be fifth consecutive quarter for
the rail business to report profits at net level.
 With improved CFS realizations (YoY) and robust rail performance we expect
GDL to report operating profit of Rs 630 mn which translates into healthy operating margin of ~30%
 Net profit is expected at Rs 343 mn versus Rs 331 mn in Q3FY12 and Rs 350 mn
in Q4FY11.
Allcargo Global Logistics (Buy: Target price - Rs 195)
 Q4FY12 or Q1CY12 consolidated revenue is expected to increase ~ 40% YoY
and 3% QoQ to Rs 10,250 mn, Again, the congestion at JNPT and Chennai port
would help the company report better numbers in the CFS business. ECU line
and domestic MTO business is also estimated to report 5% growth in volumes in
line with growth of global container volumes. However the realization should be
under pressure due to uncertainty in Eurozone.

Logistics : Q4FY12 Result Preview: ICICI Securities, PDF Link

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http://www.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ICICIdirect_ConsolidatedResultPreview_Q4FY12E.pdf


Logistics
ƒ Muted growth in volumes at major ports
Overall volumes at 12 major ports during the first 11 months of FY12
registered a decline of -0.7% YoY to 510.8 million tonnes (MMT) while
container volumes have increased by 3.3% YoY to 7.09 million TEUs.
Volumes at major ports during the first two months of Q4FY12 exhibited
a decline of 5.6% YoY and stood at 92.6 million tonnes (MMT) while
container volumes for the same period declined 1.6% YoY and stood at
1.25 million TEUs.
ƒ EBITDA margin to increase marginally
We expect EBITDA for the I-direct coverage universe to increase 16.7%
YoY to | 566.5 crore mainly on account of higher realisations. EBITDA
margins are expected to increase by 70 bps YoY at 20.3%. We expect
PAT for the I-direct coverage universe to increase 10.6% YoY to | 354.8
crore.

Logistics :Healthy volumes & margins boost CFS profits :: Centrum

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Healthy volumes & margins boost CFS profits
With container volumes steady at the ports and CFS
players’ ability to pass on higher rates and maintain
healthy margins, we remain positive on container based
logistics players with a Buy rating on Gateway
Distriparks (GDL) and Allcargo Global Logistics.
Container volumes at 12 major ports remained stable
during FY12, growing at a modest 3.0% to 7.8mn TEUs
after increasing by 9.4% in FY11 to 7.5mn TEUs. We
estimate container volumes to grow at 8.3% to 8.4mn
TEUs for FY13E. Transport Corporation of India (TCI) is
riding on the growth in its supply chain and express
logistics division, helping its revenue grow higher than
that of the industry.
􀂁 Container volumes stable: Container traffic at the 12
major ports remained stable during Q4FY12. Container
volumes grew 0.2% YoY to 1.93mn TEUs during Jan-Mar
2012, compared to 3.0% in FY12. Volumes at JNPT grew
1.3% YoY to 1.08mn TEUs in Q4. The port handled a
total of 4.32mn containers in FY12, its best annual
performance in the last 5 years.
􀂁 Total port traffic down 7.5% YoY: Total port traffic
remained lacklustre with a decline of 7.5% in Q4FY12 on
the back of a sharp drop in iron-ore volumes. Iron ore
volumes declined 54% YoY in Q4 to 12.8mn tonnes. POL
volumes increased 4.1% YoY to 47.3mn tonnes, while
coal thru-put increased 6.9% YoY to 20.4mn tonnes.
􀂁 EXIM trade too stable: India’s exports remained
sluggish but its imports continued its robust growth
during Q4. While exports grew just 7.2% YoY in value
terms during Jan-Feb 2012, imports increased 20.4%
YoY in the same period.
􀂁 Domestic industrial activity: India’s Index of Industrial
Production (IIP) recovered from its lows reached in Oct
2011. Following a marginal 1.1% growth in Q3FY12, IIP
expanded by 6.8% in January 2012, led by a sharp 42.1%
expansion of consumer non-durables, while the rest of
the IIP index contracted by 1.2%.
􀂁 GDL and Allcargo - Top picks in the sector: Gateway
Distriparks and Allcargo are our top picks in the logistics
space. We have a Buy rating on both with a target of
Rs190 and Rs220 respectively. We believe Concor is
looking fully valued at the current level and maintain
Hold with a target of Rs1,015. We also maintain our Buy
rating on TCI (target price Rs96).

Logistics :: Q3FY12 RESULTS PREVIEW: Kotak Securities

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LOGISTICS
Logistics - Port volumes at 12 major ports in Q3FY12
Performance of Logistics companies involved with container rail business,
CFS business and related business is strongly linked to performance of the
port sector in the country. With the total port volumes in Q3FY12 at the 12
major ports of the country estimated at 150 mn tonnes (+3% YoY) and
container volumes estimated at 1.95 mn TEUS ( +3% YOY) and minor ports
like Mundra estimated to grow much faster (14% YoY), we expect the
Logistics companies in our coverage to report healthy growth in Q3FY12
(except Concor).
Container Corporation of India (Accumulate: Target Price - Rs 950)
n Q3FY12 consolidated revenue is expected to increase ~ 7 % YoY and increase ~
5% QoQ to Rs 10400 mn, almost 2 x the growth in volumes at major ports. It is
important to note here that Concor primarily operates in Exim segment out of
JNPT.
n The domestic volumes of the company are estimated to report a YoY drop of
~5% in volumes. In the previous quarter Concor had reported a ~14% YoY
decline in domestic volumes primarily led by new railway policy effective Dec-
2010. Railways increased the specified rating of five commodities (cement, stone
other than marbles, iron & steel, alloys & metals, POL products) leading to higher
haulage by 100% to 275%. This led to Concor losing almost the entire volumes
of these commodities to road transportation. However the company has taken a
lot of steps to arrest the decline of volumes of these commodities.
n Operating profit is expected at Rs 2810 mn which translates into an operating
margin of ~27 %, declining almost 190 bps YoY from 28.90% primarily due to
increased competition in the Exim segment (waning pricing power) and higher
haulage cost in domestic segment (not completely passed to customers till date).
n With the company having a huge cash reserve of over Rs 23 bn which the company
has primarily invested in debt securities and with interest rates moving up,
we expect the other income of the company to be healthy in the current quarter
at Rs 750 mn versus Rs 479 mn in Q3FY11.
n Net profit for Q3FY12 is expected at Rs.2400 mn against Rs 1754 mn in Q2FY12
and Rs 2295 mn in Q3FY11.
Gateway Distriparks Ltd (Buy: TP - Rs 160)
n We expect GDL's Q3FY12 revenues to increase ~26% YoY and increase ~6%
QoQ to Rs 1952 mn. This we believe would be largely led by congestion at JNPT
and Chennai port (it leads to higher CFS volumes and realization) and improved
load factor in the rail business.
n The rail business is expected to report healthy load factor of 82% (previous year
78%) with operating margin of 17%. This would be fourth consecutive quarter
for the rail business to report profits at net level.
n With improved CFS realizations (YoY) and robust rail performance we expect
GDL to report operating profit of Rs 675 mn which translates into an improved
operating margin of ~35 %, improving almost 600 bps YoY from ~ 29%.
n Net profit is expected at Rs 345 mn versus Rs 335 mn in Q2FY12 and Rs 280 mn
in Q3FY11.

Logistics 􀂃 ICICI Securities 3QFY12 preview

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Logistics
􀂃 Muted growth in container volumes
Overall volumes at 12 major ports during the first 8 months of FY12
registered an increase of 1.3% YoY to 370.7 million tonnes (MMT), while
container volumes have increased by 3.7% YoY to 5.18 million TEUs.
Volumes at the major ports during the first 2 months of Q3FY12
exhibited a decline of 3.9% YoY & stood at 91 million tonnes (MMT),
while container volumes for the same period increased by 2.4% and
stood at 1.3 million TEUs
􀂃 EBITDA margins to decline YoY and remain flat QoQ
We expect the EBITDA for the ICICIdirect.com coverage universe to
increase 8% YoY to | 470.6 crore mainly on account of higher volumes.
The EBITDA margins are expected to decline marginally by 60bps YoY
at 18.5%. We expect the PAT for the ICICIdirect.com coverage universe
to increase 8% YoY to | 335 crore.

Logistics - Q3FY12 Results Preview - Stable volumes, higher realisation to help CFS operators - Centrum

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Q3FY12 Results Preview

Logistics

Stable volumes, higher realisation to help CFS operators

With container volumes steady at the ports and CFS players’ ability to pass on higher rates and improve margins, we maintain our positive view on container based logistics players with a Buy rating on Gateway Distriparks (GDL) and Allcargo Global Logistics. We expect container volumes at 12 major ports to remain healthy and estimate a 10.2% volume growth (in TEU terms) to 8.3mn TEUs for FY12E and 10.0% growth to 9.1mn TEUs for FY13E. Transport Corporation of India (TCI) is riding on the growth in its supply chain and express logistics division, helping its revenue grow higher than that of the industry.

m  Container volumes stable: Container traffic at the 12 major ports remained stable during Q3FY12. Container volumes grew 3.5% YoY to 1.96mn TEUs during Oct-Dec 2011, as compared to 4.0% YTD FY12. Volumes at India’s largest container port JNPT also remained flat YoY at 1.1mn TEUs in Q3 as the port capacity was fully utilised.

m  Total port traffic down 4.7% YoY: Total port traffic remained lacklustre with a decline of 4.7% in Q3FY12 on the back of a drop in iron-ore and POL volumes. Iron ore volumes declined 30.4% YoY to 16.2mn tonnes while POL volumes fell 11.1% to 41.3mn tonnes in Q3.

m  EXIM trade too stable: India’s exports remained sluggish but its imports continued its robust growth during Q3. While exports grew just 6.9% YoY in value terms during Oct-Nov 2011, imports increased 36.0% YoY in the same period.

m  Domestic industrial activity: India’s Index of Industrial Production (IIP) however remained lacklustre and volatile with growth ranging between 3-4% and contracting in Oct. During Oct 2011 it contracted for the first time in 3 years by 4.7% YoY (new series) largely on account of decline of 6% in the manufacturing sector. However, during Nov it bounced back to 5.9%.

m  GDL and Allcargo - Top picks in the sector: Gateway Distriparks and Allcargo are our top picks in the logistics space. We have a Buy rating on both with a target of Rs190 and Rs242 respectively. We believe Concor is looking fully valued at the current level and maintain Hold with a target of Rs1,015. We also maintain our Buy rating on TCI (target price Rs109).

Ports & Logistics Slowing down:: Prabhudas Lilladher,

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􀂄 November Major port volumes decline 8.3% YoY: Major port volumes declined
8.3% YoY to 45.7 mt, however on a MoM basis volumes were flat (+1%). As a
result YTD (Apr-Nov) growth in volumes has been extremely tepid at ~1.3% on a
low base of 0.8% YTD growth last year. A declining trend in volumes of major
commodities like iron ore and fertilizers in FY12 has resulted in this weak trend.
􀂄 Iron volumes decline sharply on extension of export restrictions to Orissa
ports: Iron volumes have been on a downtrend since the Karnataka mining ban
to rein in illegal mining in the state, was imposed by the SC in Aug 2011.
November witnessed a particularly sharp fall, clocking a decline of 36% YoY and
~20% MoM, as export ban restrictions were extended to ports in Orissa.
Volumes at Orissa ports, Paradip and Vishakapatnam, have plummeted 74% and
47% respectively on a MoM basis.
􀂄 Container volumes exhibit divergent trends at JNPT and Chennai: Overall major
port container volumes exhibited a flattish trend, rising +2% YoY but down 4%
MoM. The trend is similar on a YTD (Apr-Nov) basis as volumes are up by ~4%.
An overall slowdown in trade seems to have impacted JNPT container volumes
where we are seeing a 5% YoY and 9% sequential decline in container volumes
for the month of November. However, individual ports are seeing divergent
trends. Chennai volumes rose 21% YoY and 15% MoM after a lacklustre three
months (Aug-Oct). A temporary solution to the access road problem at the port
has likely resulted in a spurt in volumes.
􀂄 Impact: A slowdown in volumes at JNPT is likely to increase the competitive
intensity at CFS s operating near the port, adversely impacting companies like
Gateway Distriparks. Although a slowdown in trade has impacted container
volumes at major ports, our interaction with private port players suggest a
minimal impact of the same, mainly on account of market share gains for these
players at the expense of JNPT. However, growth has moderated to an extent,
and we are expecting a flattish trend in container volumes for ports like Gujarat
Pipavav on a sequential basis. Going forward a continued slowdown in trade can
impact the growth trajectory at minor ports like Mundra and Gujarat Pipavav
port.

LOGISTICS ::Kotak Sec, Q2FY12 RESULTS PREVIEW

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LOGISTICS
Port volumes at 12 major ports in Q2FY12
Performance of Logistics companies involved with container rail business,
CFS business and related business is strongly linked to performance of the
port sector in the country. Port volumes in H1FY12 at the 12 major ports of
the country has grown to 280 mn tonnes ( +3% YoY) and container volumes
within that to 3.88 mn TEUS (+3% YOY). Minor ports like Mundra is
estimated to have grown much faster (14% CAGR). We expect the Logistics
companies in our coverage to report healthy growth in Q2FY12 (except
Concor).
Container Corporation of India (Accumulate: TP - Rs 1000)
n Q2FY12 consolidated revenue is expected to increase ~ 4 % YoY and increase ~
3% QoQ to Rs 9800 mn in sync with growth in volumes at major ports. It is important
to note here that Concor primarily operates in Exim segment out of JNPT.
n The domestic volumes of the company are estimated to report a YoY drop of
~10% in volumes. In the previous quarter Concor had reported a 13% YoY
decline in domestic volumes primarily led by new railway policy effective Dec-
2010. Railways increased the specified rating of five commodities (cement, stone
other than marbles, iron & steel, alloys & metals, POL products) leading to higher
haulage by 100% to 275%. This led to Concor losing almost the entire volumes
of these commodities to road transportation.
n Operating profit is expected at Rs 2635 mn which translates into an operating
margin of ~27 %, declining almost 100 bps YoY from 27.74% primarily due to
increased competition in the Exim segment (waning pricing power) and higher
haulage cost in domestic segment (not completely passed to customers till date).
n Net profit for Q2FY12 is expected at Rs.2325 mn against Rs 2342 mn in Q1FY12
(remaining flat) and Rs 2068 mn in Q2FY12.
n As the valuations had become little attractive during the quarter, we had
changed the rating of the stock from Reduce to Accumulate on 29 August 2011.
Gateway Distriparks Ltd (Buy: TP - Rs 160)
n We expect GDL's Q2FY12 revenues to increase~38% YoY and increase ~3%
QoQ to Rs 1880 mn. This we believe would be largely led by congestion at JNPT
and Chennai port (it leads to higher CFS volumes and realization) and improved
load factor in the rail business.
n The rail business is expected to report healthy load factor of 80% (previous year
~75%) with operating margin of 17%. This would be third consecutive quarter
for the rail business to report profits at net level.
n With improved CFS realizations (YoY) and robust rail performance we expect
GDL to report operating profit of Rs 640 mn which translates into an improved
operating margin of ~34 %, improving almost 600 bps YoY from ~ 27%.
n Net profit is expected at Rs 350 mn versus Rs 334 mn in Q1FY12 and Rs 205 mn
in Q2FY11.


Allcargo Global Logistics (Buy: TP - Rs 195)
n Q2FY12 consolidated revenue is expected to increase ~ 25% YoY and increase
3% QoQ to Rs 8,800 mn. Again the congestion at JNPT and Chennai port would
help the company report better numbers in the CFS business. ECU line and domestic
MTO business is also estimated to report 4% growth in volumes in line
with growth of global container volumes. However the realization should be under
pressure due to uncertainty in Eurozone.
n Operating profit is expected at Rs 1050 mn which translates into an operating
margin of ~11.93 %, falling marginally YoY from 11.98% primarily due to pricing
pressure in the key MTO business.
n Net profit is expected at Rs 650 mn against profit of Rs 665 mn in Q1FY12 and
profit of Rs 379 mn in Q2FY11.

Logistics :: Q2FY12 Result Preview::ICICI Securities

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Logistics
ƒ Muted growth in container volumes
Overall volumes at 12 major ports during the first five months of FY12
registered an increase of 4.6% YoY to 237.4 million tonnes (MMT) while
container volumes increased by 4.5% YoY to 3.23 million TEUs.
Volumes at major ports during the first two months of Q2FY12 exhibited
an increase of 3.5% YoY and stood at 90.8 million tonnes (MMT) while
container volumes for the same period increased by 6.7% and stood at
1.28 million TEUs.
ƒ EBITDA margins to decline YoY and remain flat QoQ
We expect the EBITDA for the I-direct coverage universe to increase
15.3% YoY to | 546.4 crore mainly  on account of higher volumes.
EBITDA margins are expected to decline marginally by 10 bps YoY at
20.3%. We expect the PAT for the I-direct coverage universe to increase
17.6% YoY to | 379.8 crore.


Company specific view
Company Remarks
Allcargo Global
Logistics
We expect 25% YoY growth in revenues on the back of a healthy performance
anticipated from ECU Line. ECU Line has reported good volume growth over the last
couple of quarters. EBITDA margins are expected to remain flat YoY at 11.1%
Container
Corporation
We expect marginal volume growth of 1% QoQ in the Exim segment and de-growth
of 2.0% QoQ in the domestic segment. Realisations are expected to be flattish QoQ.
Revenues are expected to increase 8.47% YoY. EBITDA margins are expected to
decline by 60 bps YoY to ~27.1%
Gateway
Distriparks
We expect 30.8% YoY revenue growth primarily on the back of better volumes. We
expect volume growth of 4% YoY in the CFS segment and 26.7% YoY in the rail
segment. Realisations are expected to improve 38.7% YoY in CFS and decline by
3.8% YoY in the rail segment
Sanghvi Movers On the back of a firm demand scenario from key user industry segments, we expect
capacity utilisation levels during Q2FY12E to remain stable at ~ 80%. However,
EBITDA margins are expected to increase by 12 bps YoY to 71.1%
Transport
Corporation
We expect TCI to report a 13.4% YoY increase in revenue mainly on the back of a
healthy contribution from the SCS and XPS divisions. Higher contribution from high
margin businesses (like SCS and XPS) is also expected to result in a 22 bps
improvement in EBITDA margin YoY to ~8.2%
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

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Q2FY12 Result Preview:: ICICI Securities,

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Logistics 􀂃 Muted growth in container volumes ::Q1FY12 Result Preview -ICICI Securities

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Logistics
􀂃 Muted growth in container volumes
Overall volumes at major ports during the first two months of
Q1FY12 registered an increase of 5.1% YoY to 99.7 million tonnes
(MT) while container volumes have increased by 1.0% YoY to 1.3
million TEUs (6.2% YoY in tonnage terms to 19.9 MT).
􀂃 EBITDA margins to decline YoY and remain flat QoQ
We expect the EBITDA for the ICICIdirect.com coverage universe to
increase 8.5% YoY to | 474.9 crore mainly due to higher volumes.
EBITDA margins are expected to remain flat QoQ. However, they
would decline by 70 bps YoY to 19.5%. We expect the PAT for the
ICICIdirect.com coverage universe to increase 9.1% YoY to | 307.1
crore.


Company specific view
Company Remarks
Allcargo
Global
Logistics
We expect 13.0% YoY growth in revenues on the back of a healthy performance
anticipated from ECU Line. ECU Line has reported good volume growth over the last
couple of quarters. EBITDA margins are expected to increase 60 bps YoY to 11.0%.
PAT is expected to increase 25.5% YoY on the back of the low base effect
Container
Corporation
We expect marginal volume growth of 1.0% QoQ in the Exim segment and de-growth
of 2.0% QoQ in the domestic segment. Realisations are expected to be flattish QoQ.
As a result, revenues are expected to remain flat sequentially. EBITDA margins are
expected to decline 220 bps YoY to ~24.8%
Gateway
Distriparks
We expect 23.1% YoY revenue growth primarily on the back of better volumes. We
expect volume growth of 8% YoY in the CFS segment and 12% YoY in the rail
segment. Realisations are expected to improve 11% YoY in CFS and are expected to
remain flat in the rail segment
Sanghvi
Movers
On the back of a firm demand scenario from key user industry segments, we expect
capacity utilisation levels during Q1FY12E to remain stable at ~ 80%. However,
EBITDA margins are expected to decline 260 bps YoY to 72.0%
Transport
Corporation
We expect TCI to report a 17.1% YoY increase in revenue mainly on the back of a
healthy contribution from the SCS and XPS divisions. Furthermore, higher
contribution from high margin businesses (like SCS and XPS) is also expected to
result in a 50 bps improvement YoY to ~7.8%
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Logistics- Steady volumes to boost revenues :Q4FY11 Preview : Centrum

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Steady volumes to boost revenues
We maintain our positive view on container based logistics
players with a Buy rating on Allcargo Global Logistics,
Gateway Distriparks (GDL) and Transport Corporation of
India (TCI). We have a Hold on Container Corporation
(Concor) due to its higher valuations and slower growth.
We expect container volumes at 12 major ports to remain
steady and estimate a 10.2% volume growth (in TEU terms)
for FY12E and 10.0% growth for FY13E.

Logistics 􀂃: Q4FY11 Result Preview: ICICI Securities

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Logistics
􀂃 Container volumes outperform overall port volumes
Overall volumes at major ports during FY11 have registered a
marginal 1.6% YoY increase at 569.9 million tonnes (MT) while
container volumes have increased by 9.4% YoY to 7.5 million TEUs.
In Q4FY11, container volumes increased 7.0% YoY to ~1.94 million
TEUs. Going forward, we expect the trend of outperformance of
container volumes vis-à-vis overall port volumes to continue.
􀂃 EBITDA margins to decline YoY and remain flat QoQ
We expect the EBITDA for the ICICIdirect.com coverage universe to
increase 17.4% YoY to | 483.2 crore mainly on account of higher
volumes and improved realisations. EBITDA margins are expected
to increase 130 bps YoY to 20.4%. We expect the PAT for the
ICICIdirect.com coverage universe to increase 16.9% YoY to | 315.0
crore.

Logistics --Angel Broking: 4QFY2011 Results Preview | April, 2011

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Logistics
For 4QFY2011, we expect Gateway Distripark (GDL) and
Allcargo (AGL) (1QCY2011) to report strong revenue growth
of 14.5% and 22.1% yoy, respectively, on the back of healthy
exim volume growth. AGL is likely to benefit mainly because of
a low base effect and consistently improving ECU Line numbers.
However, Concor is expected to report flat top-line growth,
as increased container haulage charges and competition are
likely to shift some volumes to road and private carriers.
Operating margins (OPMs) of these companies are expected
to be healthy for the current quarter on account of rebates,
which led to lower OPMs in 4QFY2010. AGL and Concor are
expected to report healthy PAT growth of 47.5% and 28.8%
yoy, respectively, due to improving ECU Line numbers for AGL
and on a low base, while GDL is expected to report a marginal
decline of 0.5% yoy as the company begins to pay higher tax
post ending of MAT credit entitlement. Overall, we expect a
11.7% and 12.4% yoy increase in revenue and PAT respectively,
for our coverage universe.

Logistics: 3QFY2011 (December Quarter) Sector Outlook: Angel Broking

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For 3QFY2011, we expect Concor and Gateway Distripark
(GDL) to report strong revenue growth of 11.6% and 10.7%
yoy respectively, on the back of healthy volume growth in the
Exim segment following inventory build-up ahead of the festive
season both domestically as well as abroad. We expect Allcargo
Global Logistics (AGL) to post robust revenue growth of 25.7%
yoy on a low base and consistently improving ECU Line numbers.
Operating margins are expected to remain stable for our
coverage universe. While Concor and GDL are expected to
report moderate PAT growth of 6.9% and 4.8% yoy respectively,
we expect AGL's PAT to spike 61.5% yoy on a low base and
moderate appreciation (2.6%) of rupee vis-à-vis the euro
during the quarter. Overall, we expect a 16.0% and 24.4% yoy
increase in revenue and PAT respectively, for our coverage
universe.

2011 Outlook: Logistics (Container volumes to outpace port volumes) Neutral: ICICI Securities

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Logistics (Container volumes to outpace port volumes)
Neutral
In the logistics space, we would prefer players focusing on container freight
stations (CFS) as container volumes have outperformed the overall port
volumes. We expect this trend to continue. For the current fiscal (till date),
overall port volumes have been flat while container volumes have reported
double digit growth. Even though players are expected to report an
improvement in CFS volumes, realisations are expected to remain flat.