20 January 2012

Logistics 􀂃 ICICI Securities 3QFY12 preview

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Logistics
􀂃 Muted growth in container volumes
Overall volumes at 12 major ports during the first 8 months of FY12
registered an increase of 1.3% YoY to 370.7 million tonnes (MMT), while
container volumes have increased by 3.7% YoY to 5.18 million TEUs.
Volumes at the major ports during the first 2 months of Q3FY12
exhibited a decline of 3.9% YoY & stood at 91 million tonnes (MMT),
while container volumes for the same period increased by 2.4% and
stood at 1.3 million TEUs
􀂃 EBITDA margins to decline YoY and remain flat QoQ
We expect the EBITDA for the ICICIdirect.com coverage universe to
increase 8% YoY to | 470.6 crore mainly on account of higher volumes.
The EBITDA margins are expected to decline marginally by 60bps YoY
at 18.5%. We expect the PAT for the ICICIdirect.com coverage universe
to increase 8% YoY to | 335 crore.
Company specific view
Company Remarks
Allcargo Global
Logistics
We expect 18.5% YoY growth in revenues on the back of a healthy volume growth
anticipated from ECU Line. EBITDA margins are expected to increase by 113 bps YoY
to 12.1% due to robust performance in CFS & ECU Line operations
Container
Corporation
We expect volume growth of 5.2% YoY in the Exim segment and de-growth of 7.9%
YoY in the domestic segment.Revenues are expected to increase 5.6% YoY. EBITDA
margins are expected to decline by 280 bps YoY to ~26.1%
Gateway
Distriparks
We expect 29.3% YoY revenue growth primarily on the back of better volumes in the
rail segment. We expect volume growth of 1.3% YoY in the CFS segment and 31%
YoY in the rail segment. Realisations are expected to improve 25% YoY in CFS and
decline by 3.8% YoY in the rail segment
Transport
Corporation
We expect TCI to report a 8.1% YoY increase in revenue mainly on the back of a
healthy contribution from the SCS and XPS divisions. Higher contribution from high
margin businesses (like SCS and XPS) is also expected to result in a 51 bps
improvement in EBITDA margin YoY to ~8.0%
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research



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