YES Bank's Painful course correction begins. :: Kotak Securities

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Kotak Securities- Technical: Diwali muhurat top stock picks 2018

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Diwali Muharat Picks 2017 by Kotak Sec

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Kotak Securities, 2017 top picks and Ideas,

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Kotak Sec: Diwali Muhurat Picks (pdf link)

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Diwali crackers! 10 stock picks by brokerages for Muhurat trading :: Angel Broking, Kotak Sec, in economictimes

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KOTAK Diwali Muhurat Pick 2015

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Belying expectations, Samvat 2071 turned out to be a disappointing year for the markets with benchmarks remaining flat YoY, after a 25% return in the previous year. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices gained 5% each and outperformed the benchmarks. Several stocks performed even better than the mid and small cap indices. On the domestic front, the clear mandate in favour of a single party in the elections had raised hopes of decisive action from the Government on reforms. The Government has taken several executive and administrative initiatives to increase the ease of doing business and support growth. Government spending has increased by 61% YoY in 1HFY16. There is a strong focus on infrastructure creation and on bringing in funds for the same. However, delay in passage of important legislations like GST have negatively impacted sentiments. The RBI has reduced rates by 125bps, a part of which has been transmitted by the banks.

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NHPC: Not without Subansiri ::Kotak Sec, report

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Not without Subansiri. The continued stalemate over the Subansiri project prevents us from taking a constructive stance on NHPC that will likely continue to bear the brunt of high interest and administrative cost for the 2,000 MW stranded under-construction capacity. Earnings during the quarter were impacted by lower generation due to forced shutdown of Uri II since end-November. Maintain REDUCE rating and TP of `22.


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Bharti Airtel: India business saves 3QFY15 but can't prevent forecast cuts ::Kotak Sec, report

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India business saves 3QFY15 but can’t prevent forecast cuts. A disappointing 3QFY15 and subdued prognosis on Africa drive a 3-4% cut in consolidated EBITDA and 8-16% in consolidated EPS forecasts for FY2016/17E. Our India business estimates are broadly unchanged. We roll over our SOTP to Dec 2016E from Mar 2016E; upside from rollover is lost to EBITDA cuts and we cut our TP on the stock to `420 (from `430). BUY stays primarily on the back of inexpensive valuations even as Idea remains our preferred idea in the sector

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Tata Motors: Weak quarter impacted by one-off provisions in standalone ops ::Kotak Sec, report

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Weak quarter impacted by one-off provisions in standalone ops. JLR reported EBITDA of GBP1.1 bn (+8% yoy), led by 10% yoy growth in net revenue. Headline EBITDA margin declined sequentially by 80 bps, but on a recurring basis (excluding oneoff gains and currency hedge impacts), EBITDA margin improved by 120 bps, led by a richer product mix and a favorable currency. The standalone business performance was impacted by a one-time provision of `6.5 bn, which led to a significant increase in losses. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock as we believe JLR product momentum is likely to be robust over the next two years and EBITDA margin will be resilient at 18- 19%, led by a favorable currency and product mix.

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Godrej Consumer Products: International business surprises; domestic weak ::Kotak Sec, report

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International business surprises; domestic weak. GCPL reported 6% and 8% outperformance in consolidated revenues and EBITDA respectively on the back of solid outperformance in the international business. However, domestic performance, both on revenues and EBITDA, was weaker than our expectations. Our estimates are already reasonably bullish for FY2016/17E and we shall assess if there is a reason to be even more aggressive post the earnings call. Rich valuations on aggressive estimates underpin our REDUCE rating.

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Petronet LNG: Underperformance pricing in concerns; upgrade to ADD ::Kotak Sec, report

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Underperformance pricing in concerns; upgrade to ADD. PLNG reported weak results led by dismal marketing margins and lower regasification volumes. Nevertheless, the recent underperformance is adequately pricing in concerns on volatility of spot margins and lower utilization of Kochi terminal. We upgrade PLNG to ADD from REDUCE earlier with a revised TP of `220 (`190 previously) and we would advise investors to look for good entry points noting strong medium-term growth prospects.

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IRB Infrastructure: Traffic growth improves further; construction remains weak ::Kotak Sec, report

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Traffic growth improves further; construction remains weak. IRB reported strong BOT results as traffic growth in its mature projects improved further to 10% (though propelled mainly by Mumbai-Pune). However, this could not cover up for the weakness in construction revenues (flat qoq, adjusted for new-project contribution). Recently commissioned BOT projects remain below target. Our revised SoTP of `230 (`210 earlier) builds in benefits of traffic, discount rate and roll over.

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KEC International: Recovery expectations get deferred ::Kotak Sec, report

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Recovery expectations get deferred. The pace of recovery in business would be restricted by (1) weak backlog (down 15% yoy), (2) slow pace of closure of legacy jobs (would extend into FY2016) and (3) potentially slow pace of recovery in SAE Towers (as it comes out of losses). Strong `40 bn L1 pipeline proceeds for Thane land sales and modest decline in debtors enthuse us. We build in sharp miss in 3Q results and potential benefit of interest rate cuts. On our revised estimates, we cut our TP to `100 (from `115).

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Strategy: Smart beta - optimized CNX Nifty begins CY2015 on a strong note ::Kotat Securities

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Smart beta—optimized CNX Nifty begins CY2015 on a strong note. The eXtractorbased optimized CNX Nifty gained 7.1% in January, outperforming the benchmark by 0.75%—sentiment and growth were the two prevalent investment factors. For February, the portfolio is overweight on information technology, materials and utilities. WPRO, COAL and IIB are the biggest additions to the portfolio.

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Jubilant Foodworks: SSG surprises but doesn't deliver outperformance; expensive on rich expectations. SELL ::Kotak Sec, report

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SSG surprises but doesn’t deliver outperformance; expensive on rich expectations. SELL. Even as SSG recovery to the positive zone (modest 1.9%) after four quarters of negative SSG did surprise us positively, it failed to reflect in any outperformance at the EBITDA or PAT level, both of which missed estimates. Our estimates broadly remain unchanged; the stock remains expensive at 40X aggressive FY2017E EPS. Rich valuations on aggressive forecasts are a risky combination. We remain SELLers with a revised TP of `1,175 (from `1,100), valuing the stock at 35X December 2016E EPS.

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Strategy: Too much of a GA(A)P :: Kotak Sec, report

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Too much of a GA(A)P. We do not rule out a small correction in the market, given the growing gap between valuations and fundamentals. 3QFY15 results dispelled hopes of a near-term recovery in earnings and economic activity. Ongoing economic reforms, macro-economic improvement and strong global liquidity have driven up valuations. Low ‘cost’ of money and lack of growth globally have perhaps contributed to a huge ‘premium’ for growth, but stocks may need the support of earnings soon

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Bharti Airtel: Africa foray continues to hurt; India saves yet another quarter :: Kotak Sec, report

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Africa foray continues to hurt; India saves yet another quarter. Bharti reported broadly in-line revenues and EBITDA for 3QFY15 despite another quarter of sharp miss on Africa financials. Africa remains a story of constant misses on progressively lower expectations. Poor Africa performance coupled with the crude-led pressure on several African economies will likely drive another round of massive cuts in Africa estimates. India wireless and DTH continue to be the two bright spots. Even as inexpensive valuations bake in the obvious (Africa) and the potential (spectrum/ R-Jio) negatives, Bharti’s 3QFY15 once again lends weight to the case for Idea as a better pick.


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Jindal Steel and Power: A cautious tread to mine auctions :: Kotak Sec, report

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A cautious tread to mine auctions. Jindal Steel and Power will be selective in bidding for coal mines with its strategy focused on acquiring meaningful reserves with easy access and adequate infrastructure to ensure value maximization over the life of assets. As such, it has bid for only 2 mines for the steel business in the first tranche of auctions. While bids for steel may see aggressive participation, JSP has the advantage of wining coal blocks for its power business. The outcome is uncertain and can vary significantly. We cut our EBITDA estimate by 2-7% for FY2015-17 to factor in a decline in steel prices. Maintain REDUCE with an unchanged TP of ` 160.

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Tata Power: Still nothing to cheer :: Kotak Sec, report

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Still nothing to cheer. Tata Power continues to report weak earnings as (1) a resolution to the compensatory-tariff issue remains in a legal imbroglio, and (2) continued weakness in prices of imported coal have eroded its international coal business margins. Approval of a final tariff for Maithon is the limited positive from earnings this quarter. However, we maintain our positive stance on a possible resolution of compensatory-tariff-related issues around Mundra in FY2016. Maintain ADD rating and price target of `96/share.

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