Showing posts with label HDFC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label HDFC. Show all posts
03 May 2015
02 February 2015
05 December 2014
HDFC/LICHF: Borrowing cost declines sharply :: Kotak Sec, links
Please Share::
Borrowing cost declines sharply. Bond borrowing rates for high-rated housing finance
companies and NBFCs have declined by about 60 bps in the past two months. Incremental spreads
in the housing loan segment have expanded sharply as lending rates are stable. This decline puts
housing finance companies in a strong footing even as we expect home loan rates to moderate.
We raise estimates, increase TPs for HDFC to `1,210 (from `1,100) and LICHF to `450 (from
`375). Post the sharp rally, we downgrade LICHF to ADD from BUY. Retain ADD on HDFC.
�� India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details ��
Borrowing cost declines sharply. Bond borrowing rates for high-rated housing finance
companies and NBFCs have declined by about 60 bps in the past two months. Incremental spreads
in the housing loan segment have expanded sharply as lending rates are stable. This decline puts
housing finance companies in a strong footing even as we expect home loan rates to moderate.
We raise estimates, increase TPs for HDFC to `1,210 (from `1,100) and LICHF to `450 (from
`375). Post the sharp rally, we downgrade LICHF to ADD from BUY. Retain ADD on HDFC.
�� India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details ��
CLICK links to Read MORE reports on:
HDFC,
Kotak Sec,
LIC Housing
01 December 2014
HDFC Sec Monthly Technical Stock Picks- December 2014
CLICK links to Read MORE reports on:
Electrosteel castings,
HDFC,
idea,
RPower
22 October 2014
Consistency comes at a price… •HDFC :: ICICI Securities, PDF link
CLICK links to Read MORE reports on:
HDFC,
ICICI Securities
12 September 2014
Hold HDFC : ICICI Securities, PDF link
Please Share::
Inherent strength continues, merger uncertain!
HDFC Ltd has witnessed large speculative news flows on its merger with
HDFC Bank, driving stock prices to a new high. However, our interaction
with the management provides details on “Merger - Not a near term
probability”. Recent RBI norms on SLR, CRR relief on infrastructure bonds
are not beneficial enough to push the merger ahead though it is
eventually the course to be followed.
Merger seems remote
We believe, post management discussion, infrastructure bonds (minimum
seven years) in small volumes are possible in the near term. However,
placement of a large quantum when inter-bank participation is disallowed
remains a challenge. The nature of these bonds is unsecured, uninsured,
long term and needs higher coupon to support. Only a few banks have
placed the bonds till now. Hence, placing bets on infra bonds replacing
huge borrowings of | 187000 crore seems an exaggeration.
Key addressable issues:
1. No clarity on treatment of the 22% stake held by HDFC Ltd in HDFC
Bank, with the management not indicating any methodology
2. The cap in HDFC Bank’s FII stake has not yet been approved to 74%
creating further confusion on the new holding structure
FDI hike in insurance awaited – may move ahead soon with IPO after FDI
HDFC Standard Life is expected to be listed soon after the Parliament
approves the FDI hike to 49%. However, clarity on the sub break-up of the
increased 23% stake (full FDI or FDI+FII/NRI) also remains crucial. It
reported a profit of | 730 crore in FY14 and also offered 5% maiden
dividend to the parent in FY14. Gross premium also grew at 7% YoY to
| 12063 crore with an individual business margin of 26%. Accordingly, we
have raised our margin expectation and valuation multiple valuing the
entity at ~| 14000 crore (FY16E). It adds | 65/share to HDFC’s TP.
Healthy growth trend in advances to continue
HDFC Ltd is the first specialised housing finance company (HFC) in India
and also the largest. Its total outstanding loan book stands at | 203384
crore as on Q1FY15 of which individual loans account for 70% while the
corporate proportion has declined to 32% from 36% in FY12. HDFC has
witnessed healthy traction of 18% CAGR in the past four years compared
to industry CAGR of 17% mainly driven by the individual loan segment.
The company has been able to maintain its leading position despite a
challenging macro environment. This is owing to its unique strengths
such as strong franchise, brand pedigree, in-house model, large network
and a dedicated business. We expect loan growth of 18% CAGR over
FY14-16E to | 272822 crore.
Healthy operational performance; remains portfolio stock…
HDFC has commanded premium valuations over the years due to its
consistent track record in earnings and business growth. Return ratios
have remained healthy across economic cycles with RoE >20% and RoA
>2.5%. We expect this to be maintained over FY14-16E with stable asset
quality. The consolidated PAT as on FY14 stood at | 7948 crore with
subsidiaries contributing 32%. Even consolidated RoEs have been healthy
at ~21%. Over FY14-16E, we expect standalone earnings CAGR of 14%
to | 7013 crore. We revise our SOTP based target price to | 1056 from
| 1000 earlier. We value the standalone housing finance business at 3x
FY16E ABV (2.8x earlier) and maintain our HOLD recommendation.
�� India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details ��
Inherent strength continues, merger uncertain!
HDFC Ltd has witnessed large speculative news flows on its merger with
HDFC Bank, driving stock prices to a new high. However, our interaction
with the management provides details on “Merger - Not a near term
probability”. Recent RBI norms on SLR, CRR relief on infrastructure bonds
are not beneficial enough to push the merger ahead though it is
eventually the course to be followed.
Merger seems remote
We believe, post management discussion, infrastructure bonds (minimum
seven years) in small volumes are possible in the near term. However,
placement of a large quantum when inter-bank participation is disallowed
remains a challenge. The nature of these bonds is unsecured, uninsured,
long term and needs higher coupon to support. Only a few banks have
placed the bonds till now. Hence, placing bets on infra bonds replacing
huge borrowings of | 187000 crore seems an exaggeration.
Key addressable issues:
1. No clarity on treatment of the 22% stake held by HDFC Ltd in HDFC
Bank, with the management not indicating any methodology
2. The cap in HDFC Bank’s FII stake has not yet been approved to 74%
creating further confusion on the new holding structure
FDI hike in insurance awaited – may move ahead soon with IPO after FDI
HDFC Standard Life is expected to be listed soon after the Parliament
approves the FDI hike to 49%. However, clarity on the sub break-up of the
increased 23% stake (full FDI or FDI+FII/NRI) also remains crucial. It
reported a profit of | 730 crore in FY14 and also offered 5% maiden
dividend to the parent in FY14. Gross premium also grew at 7% YoY to
| 12063 crore with an individual business margin of 26%. Accordingly, we
have raised our margin expectation and valuation multiple valuing the
entity at ~| 14000 crore (FY16E). It adds | 65/share to HDFC’s TP.
Healthy growth trend in advances to continue
HDFC Ltd is the first specialised housing finance company (HFC) in India
and also the largest. Its total outstanding loan book stands at | 203384
crore as on Q1FY15 of which individual loans account for 70% while the
corporate proportion has declined to 32% from 36% in FY12. HDFC has
witnessed healthy traction of 18% CAGR in the past four years compared
to industry CAGR of 17% mainly driven by the individual loan segment.
The company has been able to maintain its leading position despite a
challenging macro environment. This is owing to its unique strengths
such as strong franchise, brand pedigree, in-house model, large network
and a dedicated business. We expect loan growth of 18% CAGR over
FY14-16E to | 272822 crore.
Healthy operational performance; remains portfolio stock…
HDFC has commanded premium valuations over the years due to its
consistent track record in earnings and business growth. Return ratios
have remained healthy across economic cycles with RoE >20% and RoA
>2.5%. We expect this to be maintained over FY14-16E with stable asset
quality. The consolidated PAT as on FY14 stood at | 7948 crore with
subsidiaries contributing 32%. Even consolidated RoEs have been healthy
at ~21%. Over FY14-16E, we expect standalone earnings CAGR of 14%
to | 7013 crore. We revise our SOTP based target price to | 1056 from
| 1000 earlier. We value the standalone housing finance business at 3x
FY16E ABV (2.8x earlier) and maintain our HOLD recommendation.
�� India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details ��
CLICK links to Read MORE reports on:
HDFC,
ICICI Securities
24 January 2014
HDFC-Target Price: Rs860; CMP: Rs841; Upside: 2% :: Centrum
Rating: Hold; Target Price: Rs860; CMP: Rs841; Upside: 2%
Retail boosts growth
Uncertainties and cautious approach towards lending to the real estate
market has turned HDFC ltd towards retail loans for growth. This is
reflected in successive 8-quarters of 24% yoy (average) growth in the
individual loan portfolio and reveals the strength of the brand,
leadership position and deep understanding of markets. While growth
rates are bound to trend lower, we expect the mortgage giant to
witness 17% CAGR in disbursement/ loan portfolio over FY13-16E.
Diversified borrowing profile will help maintain spreads at 2.3%
levels. Also, with limited asset quality concerns, we build in RoA/
RoE at 2.7%/ 21% over FY13-16E. HOLD
$ Inline results, growth continues to be retail in nature: Q3FY14 NII
at Rs16.8bn (+14% yoy) and reported PAT at Rs12.8bn (+12% yoy) were in
line with estimates. However, adjusted for treasury gains, PAT at
Rs12.5bn, grew 17% yoy. Reported NIM at 4%, declined 10bps qoq.
Overall spreads at 2.25% (9mFY14) were in the nature of retail (1.97%)
and non-retail (2.82%). Loan portfolio (ex-sell down) grew 19.1% yoy
and was primarily in the nature of individual loans (+24.4% yoy).
Disbursements grew 17% yoy with retail disbursements up 20% yoy.
$ Borrowing shifted back to debentures; C/income ratio best in the
industry: Easing money market rates post the July-Sept’13 episode and
arrangement with banks to enable repayment of term loans saw HDFC
shift its borrowing mix to debentures. In Q3 the share of bond
borrowings increased to 56% (+700bps qoq) and as a result cost of
funds (calc.) was at 7.6%, a decline of 23bps qoq. With relatively
benign money market rates vis-à-vis bank loans, we expect the mix to
remain in favour of non-bank loans. C/income ratio at sub-10% is the
best in the industry and is due to in-house generation of 70% of
business.
$ Healthy provisioning to act as buffer against NPAs: Though not
alarming, retail GNPA at Rs7.5bn (0.57% of loan) has grown 14%+ yoy
for the second successive quarter. Corporate GNPA at Rs7.2bn (1.2% of
loans) includes one large corporate account, adjusted for which, the
NPA position is manageable and adequately provided for with cumulative
provisioning at 95bps of loans. Overall GNPA at 0.77% is among the
lowest in its peer set.
$ Limited near term catalyst; Retain HOLD: HDFC has underperformed the
broader index in the past 6-month/ 1-year on concerns over a) sticky
interest rates impacting margins b) fears over rise in NPAs in the
event of decline in property prices and c) slowdown in corporate
portfolio. We are factoring 17% CAGR in NII/ loan portfolio and expect
core mortgage RoEs to trade at 28% levels over FY13-16E against 33%
during FY10-12. Our SOTP based target price remains unchanged at
Rs860. Lower than expected loan growth and prolonged period of sticky
rates remain key risks.
Thanks & Regards
Retail boosts growth
Uncertainties and cautious approach towards lending to the real estate
market has turned HDFC ltd towards retail loans for growth. This is
reflected in successive 8-quarters of 24% yoy (average) growth in the
individual loan portfolio and reveals the strength of the brand,
leadership position and deep understanding of markets. While growth
rates are bound to trend lower, we expect the mortgage giant to
witness 17% CAGR in disbursement/ loan portfolio over FY13-16E.
Diversified borrowing profile will help maintain spreads at 2.3%
levels. Also, with limited asset quality concerns, we build in RoA/
RoE at 2.7%/ 21% over FY13-16E. HOLD
$ Inline results, growth continues to be retail in nature: Q3FY14 NII
at Rs16.8bn (+14% yoy) and reported PAT at Rs12.8bn (+12% yoy) were in
line with estimates. However, adjusted for treasury gains, PAT at
Rs12.5bn, grew 17% yoy. Reported NIM at 4%, declined 10bps qoq.
Overall spreads at 2.25% (9mFY14) were in the nature of retail (1.97%)
and non-retail (2.82%). Loan portfolio (ex-sell down) grew 19.1% yoy
and was primarily in the nature of individual loans (+24.4% yoy).
Disbursements grew 17% yoy with retail disbursements up 20% yoy.
$ Borrowing shifted back to debentures; C/income ratio best in the
industry: Easing money market rates post the July-Sept’13 episode and
arrangement with banks to enable repayment of term loans saw HDFC
shift its borrowing mix to debentures. In Q3 the share of bond
borrowings increased to 56% (+700bps qoq) and as a result cost of
funds (calc.) was at 7.6%, a decline of 23bps qoq. With relatively
benign money market rates vis-à-vis bank loans, we expect the mix to
remain in favour of non-bank loans. C/income ratio at sub-10% is the
best in the industry and is due to in-house generation of 70% of
business.
$ Healthy provisioning to act as buffer against NPAs: Though not
alarming, retail GNPA at Rs7.5bn (0.57% of loan) has grown 14%+ yoy
for the second successive quarter. Corporate GNPA at Rs7.2bn (1.2% of
loans) includes one large corporate account, adjusted for which, the
NPA position is manageable and adequately provided for with cumulative
provisioning at 95bps of loans. Overall GNPA at 0.77% is among the
lowest in its peer set.
$ Limited near term catalyst; Retain HOLD: HDFC has underperformed the
broader index in the past 6-month/ 1-year on concerns over a) sticky
interest rates impacting margins b) fears over rise in NPAs in the
event of decline in property prices and c) slowdown in corporate
portfolio. We are factoring 17% CAGR in NII/ loan portfolio and expect
core mortgage RoEs to trade at 28% levels over FY13-16E against 33%
during FY10-12. Our SOTP based target price remains unchanged at
Rs860. Lower than expected loan growth and prolonged period of sticky
rates remain key risks.
Thanks & Regards
11 August 2013
Goldman Sachs, HDFC- Below expectations on lower top line/spreads; Retain Sell
EARNINGS REVIEW
Housing Development Finance Corporation
Sell Equity Research
Below expectations on lower top line/spreads; Retain Sell
What surprised us
HDFC reported 1QFY14 PAT of Rs11.7bn (+17% yoy), 6% below GSe and
2% below Bloomberg consensus. Adjusting for dividends, PAT grew 13.5%
yoy and missed our estimates by 11%. Key highlights: 1) NII came in at
Rs15.2bn (+17% yoy), 10% below Gse as cost of funds (calculated) came in
higher than our estimates. 2) Lending spreads (calculated) declined 34bp
yoy on higher cost of funds and lower yields as high yield developer book
grew at a modest pace of 11% yoy. 3) Non-interest income was 6% ahead
of Gse on higher dividend (Rs 2.2bn, +28% vs Gse) and fee income (+4% vs
Gse, +12% yoy) while capital gains booked during the quarter were nil. 4)
Disbursements grew a healthy 17% yoy, 2% above GSe, driven by the
individuals segment. Loan book grew 19% yoy, led by loans to individuals,
which grew a strong 24% yoy (+6% qoq). 5) Asset quality remained stable
as gross NPLs were at 0.8% of loans but NPLs on the non-individual loan
book have now moved up to 1.1% (+17bps qoq and +8bps yoy). HDFC
booked provisions of Rs300mn (33% below GSe) vs. GSe of Rs448mn.
Going forward, with the interest rate shifting upwards (1Y/10Y yields up
40-140bps respectively), lending spreads could remain under pressure in
the coming quarters.
What to do with the stock
We fine tune our FY14E-FY16E EPS estimates to incorporate trends seen in
1QFY13 but retain our 12m SOTP-based TP of Rs740. HDFC is currently
trading at 3.5X FY14E core mortgage book and 18X standalone FY14E EPS,
valuations which are at a premium and not reflective of the rising
competition in the housing finance space which could put pressure on
profitability. Risks: higher spreads, lower-than-estimated competition
Housing Development Finance Corporation
Sell Equity Research
Below expectations on lower top line/spreads; Retain Sell
What surprised us
HDFC reported 1QFY14 PAT of Rs11.7bn (+17% yoy), 6% below GSe and
2% below Bloomberg consensus. Adjusting for dividends, PAT grew 13.5%
yoy and missed our estimates by 11%. Key highlights: 1) NII came in at
Rs15.2bn (+17% yoy), 10% below Gse as cost of funds (calculated) came in
higher than our estimates. 2) Lending spreads (calculated) declined 34bp
yoy on higher cost of funds and lower yields as high yield developer book
grew at a modest pace of 11% yoy. 3) Non-interest income was 6% ahead
of Gse on higher dividend (Rs 2.2bn, +28% vs Gse) and fee income (+4% vs
Gse, +12% yoy) while capital gains booked during the quarter were nil. 4)
Disbursements grew a healthy 17% yoy, 2% above GSe, driven by the
individuals segment. Loan book grew 19% yoy, led by loans to individuals,
which grew a strong 24% yoy (+6% qoq). 5) Asset quality remained stable
as gross NPLs were at 0.8% of loans but NPLs on the non-individual loan
book have now moved up to 1.1% (+17bps qoq and +8bps yoy). HDFC
booked provisions of Rs300mn (33% below GSe) vs. GSe of Rs448mn.
Going forward, with the interest rate shifting upwards (1Y/10Y yields up
40-140bps respectively), lending spreads could remain under pressure in
the coming quarters.
What to do with the stock
We fine tune our FY14E-FY16E EPS estimates to incorporate trends seen in
1QFY13 but retain our 12m SOTP-based TP of Rs740. HDFC is currently
trading at 3.5X FY14E core mortgage book and 18X standalone FY14E EPS,
valuations which are at a premium and not reflective of the rising
competition in the housing finance space which could put pressure on
profitability. Risks: higher spreads, lower-than-estimated competition
CLICK links to Read MORE reports on:
Goldman Sachs,
HDFC
01 July 2013
Lower Risk Weights: Adding to the Sweet Spot for HDFC :: Morgan Stanley Research
Lower Risk Weights: Adding
to the Sweet Spot for HDFC
The RBI has lowered risk weights on certain
categories of individual housing loans: It also carved
out a new segment, ‘CRE – Residential Housing
(CRE-RH)’, within the commercial real estate sector.
Loans to this segment will carry lower risk weights and
standard asset provisioning. This will help release some
capital on existing loans for banks and lower capital
requirements on new loans. The benefit to HFCs,
especially HDFC, is likely to be much higher, if the NHB
follows up with similar regulations (we expect it to follow
the RBI).
Lenders with high exposure to medium / large ticket
home loans will benefit: The RBI has reduced risk
weights on individual housing loans > Rs2 mn and up to
Rs7.5 mn to 50% from 75%. It has also marginally
relaxed the loan to value (LTV) cap on these loans to
80% from 75% previously. Further, loans > Rs7.5 mn will
now attract a risk weight of 75% provided LTV is not
higher than 75% (the previous risk weight was 125%
irrespective of LTV).
This is a positive move given the appreciation in
property prices across the country. Private banks are
likely to benefit more than SOE banks given higher
exposure to medium / higher ticket loans. However,
HFCs, being mono-line lenders, will benefit more (once
the NHB follows up with similar norms).
Lenders to residential housing projects will also
benefit: Because loans to residential housing projects
are less risky and volatile, the RBI has carved out a
separate category, CRE-RH, within the commercial real
estate sector. Loans to this segment will attract a risk
weight of 75% and standard provisioning of 0.75% vs.
100% and 1% respectively for other CRE loans. CRE
exposure in the banking system is relatively limited
(~2.5% of system loans).
The key beneficiary will be HDFC: According to
management ~15% of loans will qualify as CRE-RH.
to the Sweet Spot for HDFC
The RBI has lowered risk weights on certain
categories of individual housing loans: It also carved
out a new segment, ‘CRE – Residential Housing
(CRE-RH)’, within the commercial real estate sector.
Loans to this segment will carry lower risk weights and
standard asset provisioning. This will help release some
capital on existing loans for banks and lower capital
requirements on new loans. The benefit to HFCs,
especially HDFC, is likely to be much higher, if the NHB
follows up with similar regulations (we expect it to follow
the RBI).
Lenders with high exposure to medium / large ticket
home loans will benefit: The RBI has reduced risk
weights on individual housing loans > Rs2 mn and up to
Rs7.5 mn to 50% from 75%. It has also marginally
relaxed the loan to value (LTV) cap on these loans to
80% from 75% previously. Further, loans > Rs7.5 mn will
now attract a risk weight of 75% provided LTV is not
higher than 75% (the previous risk weight was 125%
irrespective of LTV).
This is a positive move given the appreciation in
property prices across the country. Private banks are
likely to benefit more than SOE banks given higher
exposure to medium / higher ticket loans. However,
HFCs, being mono-line lenders, will benefit more (once
the NHB follows up with similar norms).
Lenders to residential housing projects will also
benefit: Because loans to residential housing projects
are less risky and volatile, the RBI has carved out a
separate category, CRE-RH, within the commercial real
estate sector. Loans to this segment will attract a risk
weight of 75% and standard provisioning of 0.75% vs.
100% and 1% respectively for other CRE loans. CRE
exposure in the banking system is relatively limited
(~2.5% of system loans).
The key beneficiary will be HDFC: According to
management ~15% of loans will qualify as CRE-RH.
CLICK links to Read MORE reports on:
HDFC,
Morgan Stanley Research
25 June 2013
India Financial Services Lower Risk Weights: Adding to the Sweet Spot for HDFC:: Morgan Stanley Research,
India Financial Services
Lower Risk Weights: Adding
to the Sweet Spot for HDFC
The RBI has lowered risk weights on certain
categories of individual housing loans: It also carved
out a new segment, ‘CRE – Residential Housing
(CRE-RH)’, within the commercial real estate sector.
Loans to this segment will carry lower risk weights and
standard asset provisioning. This will help release some
capital on existing loans for banks and lower capital
requirements on new loans. The benefit to HFCs,
especially HDFC, is likely to be much higher, if the NHB
follows up with similar regulations (we expect it to follow
the RBI).
Lenders with high exposure to medium / large ticket
home loans will benefit: The RBI has reduced risk
weights on individual housing loans > Rs2 mn and up to
Rs7.5 mn to 50% from 75%. It has also marginally
relaxed the loan to value (LTV) cap on these loans to
80% from 75% previously. Further, loans > Rs7.5 mn will
now attract a risk weight of 75% provided LTV is not
higher than 75% (the previous risk weight was 125%
irrespective of LTV).
This is a positive move given the appreciation in
property prices across the country. Private banks are
likely to benefit more than SOE banks given higher
exposure to medium / higher ticket loans. However,
HFCs, being mono-line lenders, will benefit more (once
the NHB follows up with similar norms).
Lenders to residential housing projects will also
benefit: Because loans to residential housing projects
are less risky and volatile, the RBI has carved out a
separate category, CRE-RH, within the commercial real
estate sector. Loans to this segment will attract a risk
weight of 75% and standard provisioning of 0.75% vs.
100% and 1% respectively for other CRE loans. CRE
exposure in the banking system is relatively limited
(~2.5% of system loans).
The key beneficiary will be HDFC: According to
management ~15% of loans will qualify as CRE-RH.
Lower Risk Weights: Adding
to the Sweet Spot for HDFC
The RBI has lowered risk weights on certain
categories of individual housing loans: It also carved
out a new segment, ‘CRE – Residential Housing
(CRE-RH)’, within the commercial real estate sector.
Loans to this segment will carry lower risk weights and
standard asset provisioning. This will help release some
capital on existing loans for banks and lower capital
requirements on new loans. The benefit to HFCs,
especially HDFC, is likely to be much higher, if the NHB
follows up with similar regulations (we expect it to follow
the RBI).
Lenders with high exposure to medium / large ticket
home loans will benefit: The RBI has reduced risk
weights on individual housing loans > Rs2 mn and up to
Rs7.5 mn to 50% from 75%. It has also marginally
relaxed the loan to value (LTV) cap on these loans to
80% from 75% previously. Further, loans > Rs7.5 mn will
now attract a risk weight of 75% provided LTV is not
higher than 75% (the previous risk weight was 125%
irrespective of LTV).
This is a positive move given the appreciation in
property prices across the country. Private banks are
likely to benefit more than SOE banks given higher
exposure to medium / higher ticket loans. However,
HFCs, being mono-line lenders, will benefit more (once
the NHB follows up with similar norms).
Lenders to residential housing projects will also
benefit: Because loans to residential housing projects
are less risky and volatile, the RBI has carved out a
separate category, CRE-RH, within the commercial real
estate sector. Loans to this segment will attract a risk
weight of 75% and standard provisioning of 0.75% vs.
100% and 1% respectively for other CRE loans. CRE
exposure in the banking system is relatively limited
(~2.5% of system loans).
The key beneficiary will be HDFC: According to
management ~15% of loans will qualify as CRE-RH.
CLICK links to Read MORE reports on:
HDFC,
Morgan Stanley Research
04 June 2013
HDFC In a Sweet Spot : Morgan Stanley
HDFC is in an enviable position – funding cost is
falling while loan yields are holding up (base rate
driven). This is causing spreads to expand while
gaining market share. Top line is expected to grow
at 20%+ over three years, which should help
multiples (at long-term average now) expand.
Funding costs have fallen sharply over the last few
weeks: There is an element of seasonality, and rates
usually decline in April and May. However, quantum of
decline this year is sharp – across various maturities,
HDFC’s borrowing costs have declined by almost
80-90bp. With inflation falling, this decline can be sticky.
At the same time, lending rates are holding up:
Given elevated LD ratios, banks are struggling to cut
deposit and hence base rates. This is helping HDFC
earn high incremental spreads. While banks will cut
base rates at some time, spreads for HDFC are likely to
remain resilient. On an incremental basis, HDFC is
earning an individual loan spread of 2.1-2.2%, which is
much higher than spreads on the individual loan portfolio,
in our view.
The lack of price competition is helping HDFC gain
share: Unlike previous cycles, when banks competed
on rates, this time they are unable to. As a result, HDFC
is growing at almost 10ppt more than the system. We
expect NII growth to top 20% for the next three years.
Strong growth, strong balance sheet, and average
multiples imply big upside potential: The stock is
trading at 3.7x book and 18x earnings (on core basis) on
F2014E. While this is not cheap on an absolute basis, it
is not expensive given HDFC’s earnings and balance
sheet profile. We expect multiples to expand well above
average levels. Our new 12-month PT, up on a higher
valuation for the parent, implies stock will trade at 4.1x
book and 19x P/E on F2015E.
falling while loan yields are holding up (base rate
driven). This is causing spreads to expand while
gaining market share. Top line is expected to grow
at 20%+ over three years, which should help
multiples (at long-term average now) expand.
Funding costs have fallen sharply over the last few
weeks: There is an element of seasonality, and rates
usually decline in April and May. However, quantum of
decline this year is sharp – across various maturities,
HDFC’s borrowing costs have declined by almost
80-90bp. With inflation falling, this decline can be sticky.
At the same time, lending rates are holding up:
Given elevated LD ratios, banks are struggling to cut
deposit and hence base rates. This is helping HDFC
earn high incremental spreads. While banks will cut
base rates at some time, spreads for HDFC are likely to
remain resilient. On an incremental basis, HDFC is
earning an individual loan spread of 2.1-2.2%, which is
much higher than spreads on the individual loan portfolio,
in our view.
The lack of price competition is helping HDFC gain
share: Unlike previous cycles, when banks competed
on rates, this time they are unable to. As a result, HDFC
is growing at almost 10ppt more than the system. We
expect NII growth to top 20% for the next three years.
Strong growth, strong balance sheet, and average
multiples imply big upside potential: The stock is
trading at 3.7x book and 18x earnings (on core basis) on
F2014E. While this is not cheap on an absolute basis, it
is not expensive given HDFC’s earnings and balance
sheet profile. We expect multiples to expand well above
average levels. Our new 12-month PT, up on a higher
valuation for the parent, implies stock will trade at 4.1x
book and 19x P/E on F2015E.
CLICK links to Read MORE reports on:
HDFC,
Morgan Stanley Research
27 May 2013
HDFC Good Numbers, Re-iterate OW :Morgan Stanley Research,
F4Q13 PAT at Rs15.5bn (+17% YoY) was 2% below
MSe owing to lower NII (partly owing to back-ended
AUM growth and higher fees). Underlying NII
(adjusted for ZCB costs) was up 18% YoY.
Individual AUM growth was strong at 24% YoY.
Spreads improved sequentially. Consolidated PAT
was up 17% YoY, 22% QoQ.
Individual AUM growth continues to be strong
(+24% YoY, +6% QoQ): Despite noise around
competition over the last year or so, individual loan
approvals and disbursements for HDFC were up 29%
and 33%, resp., in F2013, and HDFC is likely gaining
market share (based on industry data). We continue to
like the retail mortgage space, given growth potential,
profitability and pricing discipline owing to base rate
regime. Non-individual AUM growth was muted at 13%
YoY, 6% QoQ. Overall AUMs grew 20%.
Spreads expanded to 2.3% for F13 from 2.28% for
F9M13: With wholesale funding rates coming off sharply
in the current FY (as seen from NCD issuances), we
expect spreads to do well in F2014.
Underlying NII was up 18% YoY, fee income growth
picked up to 47% YoY. The miss in NII (likely owing to
back-ended AUM growth) was offset by higher fees on
non-individual loans. Cost control was good (+10% YoY),
and asset quality continues to be strong (0.7% GNPL
ratio, down from 0.74% in F4Q12).
Maintain OW, Raise TP to Rs1,010. The stock trades
at 3.6x F14e BV (adjusted for subs) and 17.5x F14e P/E,
15x F15e P/E. Valuations, in our view, are reasonable in
the context of strong earnings outlook – 22% EPS
CAGR in F13-15e; 20%+ ROE – coupled with a strong
balance sheet – 0.7% NPL ratio and 13.8% Tier I ratio.
CLICK links to Read MORE reports on:
HDFC,
Morgan Stanley Research
12 May 2013
HDFC Ltd Q4FY13 - Result :: Microsec Research
Dear Sir/ Madam,
Housing Development Finance Corporation Ltd announced its Q4FY13 result on 8th May 2013.
In Q4FY13, the company’s topline increased by 24.52% QoQ and 18.99% YoY to INR11035.17 crores. Whereas, Profit After Tax (PAT) increased by 22.12% QoQ and 17.24% YoY to INR2083.12 crores.
For the full year of FY13, the company’s topline increased by 18.74% YoY to INR35948.18 crores. Whereas, Profit After Tax (PAT) increased by 21.55% YoY to INR6639.72 crores.
Particulars
|
Q4FY13
|
Q3FY13
|
Q4FY12
|
QoQ(%)
|
YoY(%)
|
FY13
|
FY12
|
YoY(%)
|
Net Sales & other operating income
|
11035.17
|
8862.46
|
9273.69
|
24.52%
|
18.99%
|
35948.18
|
30275.78
|
18.74%
|
Operating Profit (Excluding OI)
|
2442.84
|
1812.69
|
2090.52
|
34.76%
|
16.85%
|
7428.53
|
6189.65
|
20.02%
|
OPM(%)
|
22.14%
|
20.45%
|
22.54%
|
169bps
|
(40)bps
|
20.66%
|
20.44%
|
22bps
|
PAT
|
2083.12
|
1705.83
|
1776.74
|
22.12%
|
17.24%
|
6639.72
|
5462.51
|
21.55%
|
PAT(%)
|
18.88%
|
19.25%
|
19.16%
|
(37)bps
|
(28)bps
|
18.47%
|
18.04%
|
43bps
|
EPS
|
13.33
|
11.03
|
11.49
|
20.85%
|
16.01%
|
42.93
|
35.33
|
21.51%
|
All data in Crores.
| ||||||||
Note:- Previous quarter's EPS adjusted to current number of shares.
| ||||||||
The Board of Directors have recommended a dividend of INR12.50 per equity share.
Regards,
Team Microsec Research
22 January 2013
HDFC - Q3FY13 Result - Microsec
HDFC Ltd has announced its Q3FY13 result on 21st January 2012.
The company’s top line decreased by 3.07% QoQ while, increased 58.76% YoY to INR10128.58 crores. Whereas, bottom line increased by 8.31% QoQ and 27.55% YoY to INR1705.83 crores.
As at December 31, 2012, company’s loan book stood at INR1.6 lakh crores as against INR1.3 lakh crores in the same period last year, increased by 23.07%. GNPA stood at 0.75%.
Particulars (Consolidated)
|
Q3FY13
|
Q2FY13
|
Q3FY12
|
QoQ(%)
|
YoY(%)
|
Net Sales & other operating income
|
10128.58
|
10449.55
|
6379.96
|
-3.07%
|
58.76%
|
Operating Profit (Excluding OI & Finance Cost)
|
1826.16
|
1778.24
|
1423.31
|
2.69%
|
28.30%
|
OPM(%)
|
18.03%
|
17.02%
|
22.31%
|
101bps
|
(428)bps
|
PAT
|
1705.83
|
1574.9
|
1337.38
|
8.31%
|
27.55%
|
PAT(%)
|
16.84%
|
15.07%
|
20.96%
|
177bps
|
(412)bps
|
EPS
|
11.07
|
10.22
|
8.68
|
8.32%
|
27.53%
|
All data in Crores, Previous Quarters EPS adjusted with current no of shares.
| |||||
Regards,
Team Microsec Research
Microsec Capital Limited
12 November 2012
H D F C:: Diwali Picks - November 2012 ::Anand Rathi Top 7 - Diwali Picks
Company Introduction: HDFC is engaged in providing loans for the purchase or construction of residential houses, commercial real estate and loans for certain other purposes in India. Its product range includes loans for purchase and construction of a residential unit, purchase of land, home improvement loans, home extension loans, non-residential premises loans for professionals and loan against property, while its flexible repayment options include Step Up Repayment Facility (SURF) and Flexible Loan Installment Plan (FLIP).
Investment Arguments: HDFC is the largest mortgage player in India. HDFC holds 24% in HDFC bank. The company also has two insurance subsidiaries where it holds 74% stake i.e. HDFC life and HDFC Ergo general insurance company. Increase in FDI limit in Insurance sector will help Indian promoters to unlock the value of their investment and improve capital adequacy.
Expected Value: 947 Sector: NBFC
Over the last decade HDFC has delivered a PAT CAGR of 22%. Impeccable asset quality, growth and profitability performance has led to market cap CAGR of 30%. HDFC has good distribution franchise owing to bank’s strong branch network. We believe this will help HDFC to maintain growth momentum going forward. As interest rates seem to have peaked out and expected to decline from FY 14. We believe this will boost profitability as well as ROE.
Valuation
At the current price of Rs. 793, the stock trades at a PBV of 3.4x for FY15e and 3.9x for FY14e. Our target price of Rs. 947 is based on target P/BV of 4.10 for FY 15 BV.( last 3 years Average.)
CLICK links to Read MORE reports on:
anand rathi,
Diwali Muharat,
HDFC
20 September 2012
HDFC ::Prabhudas Lilladher, Banks/Financials conference
Growth outlook Sanguine: HDFC maintained its growth guidance of ~20% with
ex-Mumbai portfolio seeing robust growth in individual segments. Rate
differentials with SBI is very limited at the moment to impact volumes for HDFC
ltd. Management has not seen any increase in pre-payment rates due to the
abolition of pre-payment charges and believes operational hassles/charges in
switching to a new financier will prevent their dual rate customers to switch
over to SBI.
Margins stable: Margins continue to remain stable for HDFC and lower
wholesale rates are further aiding margins as pricing environment is getting
competitive.
Re‐iterated safe nature of non‐individual loan portfolio: HDFC re-emphasised
that non-individual portfolio risk profile to be low with only 13%
builder/construction finance and rest ~20% constituted by rental discounting
and corporate construction loans. Even in the builder portfolio, HDFC
emphasised they lend only at SPV level for construction with significant LTV
comfort.
Accounting: Company will declare IFRS related accounts from Sep-12 and this
should help address investor concerns on some aggressive accounting followed
by HDFC Ltd. Also, HDFC in its recent presentation have clarified on various
consolidated accounts as well adjusting for the interest on ZCBs.
CLICK links to Read MORE reports on:
HDFC,
Prabhudas Lilladher
19 September 2012
Buy HDFC :: Prabhudas Lilladher
Consistent growth with limited or no asset quality risks: HDFC has been
delivering 20% plus PAT growth consistently. Coupled with this, HDFC has
excellent track record in maintaining robust asset quality.
High ROEs to sustain; mortgage valuation extremely reasonable: Though
reported ROEs are at 21-22%, ROEs adjusted for subsidiary investments
and also interest on zero coupon bonds is +24-25% which we expect will
sustain. We envisage no regulatory or asset quality risks for the bank, plus
the large de-rating on the stock relating to technical factors (secondary
sale by strategic investors). We believe mortgage business valuations is
extremely reasonable at <3 .0x=".0x" 1-yr="1-yr" book.="book." fwd="fwd" p="p">IFRS accounting to address accounting concerns if any: ZCB issuance has
been in line with investments in subsidiaries (not consolidated) and we see
limited impact from reserve accounting for ZCB interests. Moreover, HDFC
is moving to IFRS accounting from Q2FY13 and that would address investor
concerns, if any. Consolidated ROEs remain at ~22-23% even after
factoring in ZCB interests.
CLICK links to Read MORE reports on:
HDFC,
Prabhudas Lilladher
28 August 2012
HDFC Has revised Rate of Interest w.e.f. August 27,2012
HDFC has revised rate of interest w.e.f. August 27, 2012.
The new Rate of Interest as follows:
INDIVIDUALS & TRUSTS
| ||||
Period of Deposit
|
Rate of Interest (p.a.)
| |||
Quarterly
|
Half Yearly
|
Annual
|
Cumulative
| |
Rs. 1 crore < Rs. 5 crores (Ind & Trusts)
| ||||
12 Months
|
9.55%
|
9.65%
|
-
|
9.85%
|
24 Months
|
9.35%
|
9.45%
|
9.65%
|
9.65%
|
36 Months
|
9.25%
|
9.35%
|
9.55%
|
9.55%
|
60 Months
|
8.85%
|
8.95%
|
9.15%
|
9.15%
|
Rs. 5 crores <= Rs. 20 crores (Ind & Trusts)
| ||||
12 Months
|
9.65%
|
9.75%
|
-
|
9.95%
|
24 Months
|
9.45%
|
9.55%
|
9.75%
|
9.75%
|
36 Months
|
9.40%
|
9.50%
|
9.70%
|
9.70%
|
ROI is subject to change from time to time.
| ||||
For Cumulative option, interest will be compounded annually.
| ||||
Brokerage is payable proportionately for the period of deposit.
| ||||
HDFC SMART DEPOSITS
| |||
Period of Deposit
|
Rate of Interest (p.a.)
| ||
Quarterly
|
Annual
|
Cumulative
| |
< Rs. 1 crore
| |||
3 < 12 Months
|
-
|
-
|
9.25%
|
12 < 15 Months
|
9.50%
|
9.80%
|
9.80%
|
15 < 24 Months
|
9.35%
|
9.65%
|
9.65%
|
24 <= 36 Months
|
9.25%
|
9.55%
|
9.55%
|
Rs. 1 crore < Rs. 5 crores
| |||
3 < 12 Months
|
-
|
-
|
9.30%
|
12 Months
|
9.55%
|
9.85%
|
9.85%
|
15 Months
|
9.45%
|
9.75%
|
9.75%
|
24 Months
|
9.35%
|
9.65%
|
9.65%
|
36 Months
|
9.25%
|
9.55%
|
9.55%
|
Rs. 5 crores <= Rs. 20 crores
| |||
3 < 12 Months
|
-
|
-
|
9.45%
|
12 Months
|
9.60%
|
9.90%
|
9.90%
|
15 Months
|
9.50%
|
9.80%
|
9.80%
|
24 Months
|
9.40%
|
9.70%
|
9.70%
|
36 Months
|
9.30%
|
9.60%
|
9.60%
|
ROI is subject to change from time to time.
| |||
For Cumulative option, interest will be compounded annually.
| |||
Brokerage is payable proportionately for the period of deposit.
| |||
Thanks & Regards
Sneha mundra
Relationship Manager
RR Investor Capital Services Pvt. Ltd.
S - 111, Manipal Centre,
47, Deckenson Road,
Bangalore-560042
Phone No.- 080-42477177/103/105
Mobile No.- 9164752270
Email ID- s.mundra@rrfcl.com
Relationship Manager
RR Investor Capital Services Pvt. Ltd.
S - 111, Manipal Centre,
47, Deckenson Road,
Bangalore-560042
Phone No.- 080-42477177/103/105
Mobile No.- 9164752270
Email ID- s.mundra@rrfcl.com
CLICK links to Read MORE reports on:
fixed deposits,
HDFC,
Personal Finance
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)