Showing posts with label United Phosphorous. Show all posts
Showing posts with label United Phosphorous. Show all posts

05 February 2015

UPL: Performs in an adverse business environment ::Kotak Sec, report

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Performs in an adverse business environment. UPL’s results were better versus estimates at the operating level. The company reported healthy growth in sales of 15% yoy in an adverse environment for agri-chemicals globally on account of subdued crop prices. EBITDA margins also improved by 130 bps yoy. The company expects to sustain the momentum led by (1) new launches that will enable market share gains and (2) shift in preference of farmers for lower-cost products. We have increased our operating numbers led by higher sales/margins but our PAT estimates remain unchanged on adjustments to interest costs and minority interest. ADD with a revised TP of `450 at 13X December 2016 EPS.

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03 February 2015

UPL - Another Bumper Quarter; Re-Rating to Continue; Result Update Q3FY15 ::Edelweiss

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Momentum continues UPL’s 3QFY15 :: HDFC Securities

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12 January 2015

UPL - Enriched Growth; Visit Note :: Edelweiss

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27 October 2014

UPL - Robust Volumes Spur Performance; Result Update Q2FY15 :: Edelweiss, PDF link

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21 January 2014

UPL Ltd New Avatar ::IDFC Sec

UPL’s shift of focus from revenue growth to profitability, emphasis on organic
growth, higher return ratios and distribution of free cash to shareholders
underpin its new growth strategy. The shift addresses key investor concerns. The
improvement in operating performance has also been driven by successful
integration of DVA Brazil, and strong growth in India and RoW. We expect 17%
CAGR in UPL’s EPS over FY13-16E with ~500bp expansion in RoCE to 20% and
net gearing of 0.3x by FY16E. We introduce our FY16 estimates and roll forward
our target multiple to FY15. Reiterate Outperformer with a revised price target of
Rs282 (12x FY15E EPS). UPL is one of our top mid-cap picks.
Shifting growth gears: Having acquired critical scale (US$1.8bn revenues by
FY14E), UPL now seeks to transition from a generics entity to more of a branded
player by leveraging its R&D capabilities and distribution reach. This should lead
to higher gross and operating margins. The management aims to improve EBITDA
margins by 100bp pa over the next 2-3 years (our estimate at 170bp by FY16).
Balance sheet repair – the new imperative: Free cash generation (limiting net
working capital to 100-110 days and prioritizing organic growth), and distribution
through higher dividends and buybacks are the new mantra at UPL. This, along
with planned lowering of cash levels towards reducing gross debt, should drive a
marked improvement in return ratios over the next few years.
A re-rating candidate; Outperformer: With global scale and diversified presence,
UPL is a play on global agricultural cycle. Volatile earnings and >600bp dip in RoE
over FY08-12 led to de-rating, but we see a turnaround ahead with improving
profitability and free cash distribution. At 8.8x FY15E earnings, valuations are
compelling. Disappointment on margins and free cash generation are key risks.

04 May 2013

United Phosphorus - Capital Markets Day confirms our positive outlook:: Prabhudas Lilladher


UPL hosted its ‘Capital markets Day’ last Friday. The Management Team of UPL,
including the Regional Business Heads, explained the regional agri trends & UPL’s
strategy over the medium‐term. Post interaction with the management, we remain
fairly confident about UPL’s growth path ahead. Robust earnings growth during
Q4FY13, improvement in margins and working capital despite growing share of
Brazil, increased interaction with the investor community and improved disclosures
are likely to bring back investor confidence gradually. Management remained
fairly confident of achieving its revenues growth guidance of 12‐15% YoY during
FY14E, along with margin improvement of 100bps YoY. We believe consistent
earnings growth combined with improvement in Balance Sheet and return ratios is
likely to trigger re‐rating. Reiterate ‘BUY’ with target price of Rs185.
! Brilliant climax to FY13: Q4FY13 results turned out to be a pleasant surprise,
both on the profitability as well as Balance Sheet front. EBITDA margins
improved by 70bps YoY to 19.0%. Consistent pricing increase (nine consecutive
quarters of YoY positive price increases), shift in product mix, rationalization of
costs, turnaround in DVA are gradually gaining momentum and we believe,
margins are likely to improve by 50bps YoY in FY14E. Management is targeting
margin improvement of 300-400bps in DVA over the next two years. Working
capital days reduced to 90 at the end of FY13 driven primarily by increase in
creditor days (management has guided for working capital days in the range of
90-100 for FY14E). UPL generated FCF of Rs6.2bn in FY13.

07 March 2013

United Phosphorus Poised for a re‐rating!:: Prabhudas Lilladher,


! Concerns overdone, CMP factors in all negatives: United Phosphorus (UPL)
continues to trade at ~50% discount to peers due to investor concerns related to
piling up of debt, further deterioration in working capital, margin dilutive
acquisitions and decline in return ratios. However, we believe, concerns are
overdone and CMP factors in all negatives. We would like to highlight that
despite decline in return ratios from their peak, current RoE/RoA at 16.4%/6.1%
are significantly higher than the global generic players, Nufarm & Makhteshim‐
Agan (MAI).
! Working capital unlikely to deteriorate further: Despite increasing contribution
from Brazil which has longer credit cycles, we do not expect working capital to
deteriorate further. On the contrary, we have modelled for working capital
improvement of three days over the next two years to 143/142 in FY14E/FY15E.
We believe there is room for improvement in inventory/receivables across
multiple geographies as unfavourable weather conditions this year have
resulted in piling up of inventory and longer credit days. However, rebound in
these markets over the next two years would result in marginal improvement of
working capital.
! Earnings growth, combined with improvement in return ratios, to trigger re‐
rating: UPL’s higher exposure to emerging markets positions it well to deliver
sustainable revenue growth over the medium term. EBITDA margins are likely to
improve by 60bps over the next two years, driven by a turnaround in DVA
(expect DVA to contribute 20-30 bps of improvement), significant cost savings
initiatives and shift in product mix. We expect UPL to register 12.5%/14.1%
CAGR in Revenue/PAT over FY12-15E. RoE/ROCEs are likely to improve ~150bps
to 17.8%/12.6% from FY13E-FY15E. With sustainable earnings growth and
improvement in return ratios, stock is likely to get re-rated. We value UPL at 9x
FY14 earnings and recommend ‘BUY’ with target of Rs 170 (43% upside to CMP).

08 May 2012

Angel Broking - United Phosphorus - RU4QFY2012 - Result Updates :PDF Link

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United Phosphorus - RU4QFY2012

30 April 2012

Technicals -Insecticides India, Dwarikesh Sugar, hindalco, United Phosphorous, Kalindee Rail, Rishi Laser, ::Business Line

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Please advise on the outlook for Insecticides India and Dwarikesh Sugar Industries. Are these stocks worth holding?
P.K. Srivastava
Insecticides India (Rs 410): The graph of Insecticide India is very pleasing to the eye. It has been climbing up steadily marked by very shallow corrections. The long-term uptrend that began at December 2008 low continues to be strong. This positive structural trend will be threatened only if the stock goes on to close below Rs 275.
Medium-term supports for the stock exist at Rs 345 and Rs 292. Investors with a short- to medium-term perspective can continue to hold the stock as long as it trades above Rs 350. The stock will face resistance in the zone between Rs 400 and Rs 480 in the upcoming months.
Targets on a break above this band are Rs 515 and Rs 617.
Dwarikesh Sugar Industries (Rs 35.9): The stock is in a severe bear market since the February 2006 peak. While the intense downward spiral halted in November 2008, the stock is fluctuating in the range between Rs 28 and Rs 140 since then.
It will continue to face strong resistance around Rs 140 and the long-term outlook will turn positive only on a firm close above this level. Subsequent long-term targets are Rs 168 and Rs 200.
A fresh leg of the downtrend began at the November 2010 peak. The stock has now reached its long-term base level around Rs 28. Investors still holding on to the stock can continue to do so with stop at Rs 25. The stock will face resistance at Rs 68 and Rs 93 in the medium-term. Investors with short to medium-term investment horizon can divest their holdings at either of these levels.
Can I buy Hindalco and United Phosphorous at current levels?
Jayakumar
Hindalco Industries (Rs 119.8): Hindalco is in a medium-term correction from the peak of Rs 252 recorded in January 2011. This decline is correcting the up-move recorded in the stock from the March 2009 low. The stock is attempting to halt around its key long-term support at Rs 133. The zone between Rs 110 and Rs 120 is critical from a long-term perspective. Investors can buy the stock in declines with stop at Rs 105.
But fresh purchases should be avoided on decline below Rs 105. Next halt for the stock can be at Rs 68 or even Rs 37. Resistances for the stock over the upcoming months will be at Rs 165, Rs 180 and Rs 200. Investors with a shorter investment horizon can sell the stock at either of these levels.
Long-term view will turn positive only on close above Rs 200. Next target for the stock would be Rs 250.
United Phosphorous (Rs 113.7): United Phosphorus is also declining sharply since February. This decline has pulled the stock below its long-term support at Rs 129. It would be best if investors wait for the stock to move above Rs 128 and recording a strong close above this level before initiating fresh purchases on this counter.
The stock has feeble support at current levels, around Rs 110. But further decline will pull the stock lower to the long-term support zone between Rs 70 and Rs 80.
Medium-term targets for the stock are Rs 153, Rs 166 and Rs 180. Long-term view will turn positive only on close above Rs 180, opening the possibility of a rally to the previous peak at Rs 220.
The stock, however, has strong long-term resistance around Rs 220.
The stock could find it difficult to move beyond this hurdle just yet.
I have bought Kalindee Rail Niman and Rishi Laser at Rs 180 and Rs 64 respectively. Let me know the outlook for these stocks.
N. Gopalakrishnan
Kalindee Rail Nirman (Rs 68.7): Kalindee Rail Nirman is currently trading at a multi-year low. The stock has strong support in the zone between Rs 80 and Rs 90 where it bottomed in October 2008, March 2009 and April 2011. The stock is currently trading at Rs 74 that was the trough formed in July 2006.
Breach of this support can cause a steep fall that can drag the stock to the next long-term base between Rs 11 and Rs 32. Investors should, therefore, divest their holding on a steep decline below Rs 65.
Rallies in the upcoming months will face resistance at Rs 135 or Rs 176. Investors should divest their holding if the stock is unable to move past the first obstacle.
Rishi Laser (Rs 26.2): Rishi Laser too continues to be in the long-term downtrend that commenced from the bull-market peak in January 2008. The recovery in 2009 could help the stock retrace only one-third of the previous decline and the stock is once again moving towards its 2009 low.
Investors can hold the stock with stop at Rs 19. The stock could attempt to move higher to Rs 49, Rs 64 or Rs 89 in the medium-term. Investors with a short-term perspective can exit the stock if it fails to move beyond Rs 49. Long-term outlook will turn positive only on a strong close above Rs 90.

10 March 2012

UNITED PHOSPHORUS Adverse weather killjoy ::Edelweiss

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Adverse weather conditions have delayed the start of cropping season in
United Phosphorus’ (UNTP) key geographies viz Europe and the US.
Management has, therefore, lowered revenue guidance for FY12 to 25‐
30% against 30‐40% earlier. However, UNTP maintains that it will realize
most of the lost sales of Q4FY12 in Q1FY13. As we are already at the lower
end of the earlier revenue guidance, we have factored in only a slight cut
in revenues for FY12 and FY13, while we maintain our EBITDA margin
estimates; our EPS estimates are down 7% and 4% for FY12 and FY13,
respectively. While lower revenue guidance is weighing on the stock price,
we believe current valuations are attractive and, hence, maintain ‘BUY’
with a revised target price of INR177 (INR185 earlier).
Revenue guidance cut considerably
Extended and severe winter in Europe and parts of the US has delayed the start of the
new season for UNTP. Generally, the last quarter is the strongest for UNTP in these
geographies. Hence, delay in cropping is likely to hit the company hard. The
management has, therefore, lowered its FY12 revenue guidance to 25‐30% from 30‐40%
earlier, which they had been maintaining for the past two quarters. Nevertheless, the
company guides for considerable spillover to Q1FY13.
Performance to be muted in Q4FY12
While UNTP’s 9mFY12 revenue surged 41%, lower revenue guidance for FY12 implies
muted revenue growth for Q4FY12. At the higher end of the band, we could see Q4FY12
revenue grow 6% and at the lower end decline 10%.
Outlook and valuations: Attractive; maintain ‘BUY’
All along we have considered UNTP’s revenue growth at the lower end of the guidance
(31% for FY12). Now, we have lowered it further to 27%, resulting in revenue of
INR73.3bn. For FY13 too, we reduce our revenue estimate to INR83.5bn from INR84.4bn
earlier. We, however, maintain our EBITDA margin estimates at 18.5% for FY12 and 19%
for FY13. Further, we have lowered our EPS estimates to INR14.0 (INR15.0 earlier) and
INR17.7 (INR18.5 earlier) for FY12 and FY13, respectively. Owing to attractive
valuations, we maintain ‘BUY’ on UNTP, with a revised TP of INR177 at 10x FY13E EPS.

09 March 2012

United Phosphorus: Downgrade earnings due to lower sales growth guidance ::Kotak Securities PDF link

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United Phosphorus: Downgrade earnings due to lower sales growth guidance
` UPL cuts FY2012 sales guidance to 25-30% from 35-40%
` UPL to report volume decline in 4QFY12E due to winter in EU/NA and
drought conditions in LA
` Reported 4QFY12E PAT likely to be down 27% yoy
` We cut FY12/13E PAT by 19/15% respectively

http://www.kotaksecurities.com/pdf/indiadaily/indiadaily05032012.pdf

03 March 2012

DOWNGRADE United Phosphorus : Target Price: Rs 172 ::Emkay PDF link

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United Phosphorus
Reco: ACCUMULATE
CMP: Rs 142
Target Price: Rs 172
Downgrade to Accu on management’s lowered guidance
·      UPL has revised its topline growth guidance downward from 35-40% to 25-30% due to extended winters in key markets like North America and Europe
·      Q4FY12 may report muted revenue growth with PAT decline of ~27%. Muted revenue growth is despite ~8% currency benefit and 5-8% price increase in Q4FY12
·      We have downgraded our FY12/FY13 est by 15.3%/13.8% to Rs13.6/Rs17.2. Consensus est was building 35% revenues growth in FY12 and also likely to be revised downward
·      Despite attractive valuations of 8.3x FY13 est we expect stock to remain laggard. Downgrade to Accumulate from BUY with revised price target of Rs 172


Click here to read report: Company Update

United Phosphorus - Adverse weather killjoy; company update; Buy ::Edelweiss PDF link

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United Phosphorus (UNTP IN, INR 136, Buy)
Adverse weather conditions have delayed the start of cropping season in United Phosphorus’ (UNTP) key geographies viz Europe and the US. Management has, therefore, lowered revenue guidance for FY12 to 25-30% against 30-40% earlier. However, UNTP maintains that it will realize most of the lost sales of Q4FY12 in Q1FY13. As we are already at the lower end of the earlier revenue guidance, we have factored in only a slight cut in revenues for FY12 and FY13, while we maintain our EBITDA margin estimates; our EPS estimates are down 7% and 4% for FY12 and FY13, respectively. While lower revenue guidance is weighing on the stock price, we believe current valuations are attractive and, hence, maintain ‘BUY’ with a revised target price of INR177 (INR185 earlier).

10 February 2012

United Phosphorus ::Strong Operational Quarter, Higher tax impacted PAT::Prabhudas Lilladher,

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United Phosphorus (UPL) came out with its Q3FY12 result. Net sales was ahead of
our as well as consensus estimate, while PAT was lower than our expectation.
Management is maintaining its FY12 revenue growth guidance of 35-40% YoY, with
EBITDA (incl. other income) margin of 19-20%. We are downward revising our
FY12/FY13 estimate by ~28%/21% considering higher depreciation/interest/tax rate
on account of UPL’s recent acquisitions. Also, we are downward revising our rating
from ‘BUY’ to ‘Accumulate’, with a revised TP of Rs175 (earlier Rs199). We still
prefer Rallis India (Rallis) over UPL on account of better management, strong balance
sheet, better PAT FY11-14 CAGR and return ratios.
􀂄 Strong operational performance during Q3FY12: UPL’s net sales grew by 57.8%
YoY to Rs19.3bn (PLe: Rs16.5bn), mainly on account of strong volume growth of
31% YoY. Further, it has been supported by price (rate) growth and exchange
variation of 8% and 19% YoY, respectively. All the geographies have shown
strong performance on YoY basis during Q3FY12. Company has acquired Rice CO
LLC and DVA Agro business in the past 12 months that has contributed 31% to
overall sales growth (i.e. 57.8% YoY). UPL’s EBITDA grew by 57.5% to Rs3.5bn
(PLe: Rs3.2bn). EBITDA margin stood at 18.1% (PLe:19.5%). Company’s staff cost
has gone by 50.2% YoY to Rs1.9bn (up 28.9% QoQ) because of recent
acquisitions. DVA Agro has contributed for ~1.5months during Q2FY12 v/s three
months in Q3FY12 and partially due to exchange variation.

United Phosphorus: Strong operating performance; Maintain Buy: Nomura

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United Phosphorus reported robust 3QFY12 earnings, with net sales up
~58% y-y, beating our and consensus estimates by a wide margin. On
PAT level, results were largely in line on the back of a higher tax rate
(due to a one-off impact) and higher minority interest/lower associate
income. Better realisation (+8% y-y), supported by new acquisitions and
INR depreciation helped company report strong numbers. Overall, these
are a good set of numbers and we remain positive on the stock. We
reiterate our Buy as the stock is currently trading at 7.7x our FY13F
earnings estimate.

05 February 2012

Result Update: Petronet LNG Ltd, Divi's Lab, LIC Housing Finance, Allahabad Bank, United Phosphorus, NTPC, Glenmark Pharma: Emkay

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Result Update

Petronet LNG Ltd
Reco: ACCUMULATE
CMP: Rs 164
Target Price: Rs 180
Volume growth continue
·      Results were above our and street estimates at bottom line, mainly due to higher volume growth of 7.3% to 144.9tbtu during the quarter
·      EBIDTA margin declined marginally by 157bps YoY to 7.9% (-40.4bps QoQ), mainly on account of higher input cost and increase in other expenditure
·      Company is planning to setup 3rd LNG terminal at Gangavaram port, Andhra Pradesh, with the total capacity of 5mntpa, While Kochi terminal will start from end of CY12
·      The recent news on proposed cap on gas marketing margin which is to be decided by PNGRB would keep the stock under pressure until any clarity emerges. Maintain accumulate with TP of Rs.180

Divi’s Lab
Reco: BUY
CMP: Rs 818
Target Price: Rs 927
Subdued quarter, Growth story remains intact - Maintain Buy
·      Divi’s Q3FY12 performance was below expectations with (a) Revenue at Rs4.2bn (up 33% YoY); (b) EBIDTA at Rs1.5bn (up 22% YoY)  & (c) PAT at Rs1.23bn (up 21% YoY)
·      Top-line growth was aided by INR depreciation, which contri-buted 13% to the top-line growth. Capacity utilization at Vizag plant remained flat QoQ, expected to scale up from Q1’13
·      EBITDA margins at 36.2% were lower than expectations in spite of INR depreciation led by increase in expenses due to commissioning of Vizag plant & higher proportion of API sales
·      Growth story remains intact – Maintain Buy with a target price of Rs927 on the stock (20x FY13 EPS of Rs46.3)

LIC Housing Finance
Reco: HOLD
CMP: Rs 246
Target Price: Rs 250
Unfavorable base and shrinking spread take toll
·      LICHF’s Q3FY12 NII (Rs3.3bn) and APAT (Rs2.5bn) below our expectations. Lower than expected numbers driven by sharper 20bps contraction in NIMs
·      Individual disbursements at 8.4% yoy, due to unfavorable base effect. However, mgmt still confident of 20% growth in disbursement implying 27% yoy growth in Q4FY12
·      NIMs at 2.3%, down 20bps qoq (est 12bps). Provisions write back (Rs780mn) helps as RPAT grows 45%. However, PCR dips back to 51%.
·      Intended QIP and teaser rate loan provisions, key upside risk to our numbers. Valuations have seen sharp run up to 2.4x/1.9x FY12E/FY13E ABV. Recommend Hold

Allahabad Bank
Reco: ACCUMULATE
CMP: Rs 156
Target Price: Rs 200
Strong performance; aggressive provs add comfort
·      ALBK results ahead of estimates with NII at Rs13.8bn (est Rs12.7bn). Net profit at Rs5.6bn (est Rs5.6bn) further aided by higher trading gains and lower tax rate of 8%
·      Strong NII growth (31.3%yoy) driven by stable NIMs vs our exp of 20bps dip. Advances grew 5% qoq in line with expectations
·      Slippages at Rs5.9bn vs our est of Rs5.5bn. However, fresh restructuring of Rs10.5bn was a –ve surprise. Net stressed asset stand at 4.8% of advances vs 3.8% in Q2FY12
·      Upgraded FY12E/FY13E numbers by 17.7%/12.2 for largely lower tax rate. Aggressive provisioning policy provides comfort. Remains our top pick amongst mid-size PSU banks

United Phosphorus
Reco: BUY
CMP: Rs 144
Target Price: Rs 200
Bottomline disappoints, downgrade estimates
·      Q3FY12 revenues / EBITDA were above est driven by currency impact however higher tax outgo squeezed APAT at Rs 1.15bn,4% yoy, below est of Rs 1.5bn
·      58%yoy growth in sales is primarily driven by recent acquisitions in Brazil (~25%) and exchange fluctuation (19%) while organic volume growth remains muted at ~6% 
·      Despite higher revenue growth, EBITDA margins remain subdued at 18.1%. Higher tax rates at 33% and losses from Brazilian JV (SIPchem) suppressed PAT growth at mere 4%
·      Downgrade FY12/13 est by 10%/7% to Rs 16 / 19.9 and subsequently downgrade price target to Rs 200 (10xFY13 EPS), however maintain BUY due to attractive valuations

NTPC
Reco: BUY
CMP: Rs 172
Target Price: Rs 204
90%+ PAF structurally coming down; maintain Buy
·      3Q12 PAT of Rs21.3bn is below est. due to higher R&M expenses & under recovery on water charges. Adjusted net profit stood at  Rs21.7bn (assuming PY sales as recurring)
·      Has commissioned 1320MW (Sipat) and commercialized 1,160MW in YTD12. Mgmt has retained its capacity addition target
·      Highlights - (1) PAF of coal plants low at 85.3% and 86.2% for 3Q12 and 9M12 period and (2) Revised PAF and COD assumption, FY12E/FY13E EPS reduced by 3.4%/3.9%
·      Valuations still remain reasonable. Positives to continue (1) COD of another 1160MW, (2) FY12/13 grossing & (3) acquiring distressed plants in medium term. Maintain Buy;

Glenmark Pharma
Reco: HOLD
CMP: Rs 312
Target Price: Rs 360
Margins under pressure – Downgrade to Hold
·      Q3FY12 Results - Revenues at Rs10.3bn (up 38%YoY), b) Adj. EBITDA at Rs1.8bn (up 35% YoY), and c) APAT at Rs1.33bn (up 41% YoY)
·      Revenue growth was driven by 11% in India, 56% in US, 58% in Europe and 48% in Latam
·      Despite INR dep. by 13%, gross margins declined 300bps YoY & 120bps QoQ due to higher growth in Latam, Europe, US where margins are lower and lower growth in high margin India business
·      On account of near term growth pressure in India business & margin pressure overall, we downgrade the stock to Hold with a TP of Rs360 (15x FY13 Base EPS of Rs21+ Adj NPV of Rs47)

19 January 2012

United Phosphorus Limited : Target Price: ` 180.00 :: Omi Advisors 2012 Ideas

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About the Company
United Phosphorus Limited (UPL) is the largest producer of agriculture chemicals in India. UPL produces crop protection products,
intermediaries, speciality chemicals and other chemicals. UPL has its presence across value added agri inputs ranging from seeds to
crop protection and post harvest activities. The company is a global player this area and has its presence in more than 120 countries.
The revenue from the overseas market contributes over 70% to the company’s total income.
The company has 21 manufacturing facilities. Among them, 9 are in India, 4 are in China, 2 in Spain and one each in UK, Argentina,
Vietnam, Netherland, Italy and China.
Investment Rationale
The company’s performance in the last couple of years was static due to the downtrend in global economy. Currently the business
scenario for the company is encouraging. The company offers a wide range of products and majority of them are manufacturing in
India which reduces its manufacturing cost. Various acquisitions enabled the company to have a large geographical spread. This
reduces the risk associated with a particular geography. Apart from this, UPL is having a number of strategic alliances with various
agrochemical manufacturers spread across the globe. This will again strengthen its distribution reach. Depreciating Rupee will
accelerate the revenue growth of the company as a major part its revenue comes from overseas