02 January 2011

2011 Outlook: Logistics (Container volumes to outpace port volumes) Neutral: ICICI Securities

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Logistics (Container volumes to outpace port volumes)
Neutral
In the logistics space, we would prefer players focusing on container freight
stations (CFS) as container volumes have outperformed the overall port
volumes. We expect this trend to continue. For the current fiscal (till date),
overall port volumes have been flat while container volumes have reported
double digit growth. Even though players are expected to report an
improvement in CFS volumes, realisations are expected to remain flat.

⇒ Overall volumes at 12 major ports during April-November 2010 have
registered a 0.8% YoY increase at 365.9 million tonnes (MT) while
container volumes have increased by 12.3% to 4.99 million TEUs. On
the back of an expected increase in containerisation levels, the trend
of outperformance of container volumes is expected to continue. In
the CFS segment, players with a presence in ports like Chennai and
JNPT have benefited during the current year. During April-November
2010, container volumes at Chennai port increased at a brisk pace of
29% YoY while JNPT port volumes increased 8% YoY

⇒ We prefer Gateway Distriparks (GDL) in the logistics segment. GDL
has chalked out capacity expansion plans in its CFS segment, which
would result in volume led growth. Within the rail segment, the
management is planning to increase its focus on the more profitable
Exim segment, which augurs well for the future

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