19 February 2011

Reliance Industries: Gas production disappointment :: Kotak Sec

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Reliance Industries (RIL)
Energy
Gas production disappointment. According to a press release by Niko Resources
dated February 11, 2011, KG D-6 gas production will stay at current production levels
in FY2012E. Niko has received the communication from RIL and the new production
estimate has been sent to the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons. We have cut
FY2012E and FY2013E KG D-6 gas production to 52 mcm/d and 65 mcm/d and our EPS
to `68.6 (-2.3%) and `74.4 (-2.7%). We retain our REDUCE rating.

Buy Unity Infraprojects; Target :Rs69:: ICICI Securities,

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Unity Infraprojects:: Results below expectation…
Unity Infraprojects’ (Unity) Q3FY11 results were below our estimates
due to i) extended monsoon and ii) ban on sand mining in the coastal
region of Maharashtra. OPM at 12.4% was marginally lower than our
estimates of 12.8% due to lower absorption of overhead due to slower
execution and rising commodity pressure. Order inflow sluggishness is
a major concern for Unity with order intake of | 1,227 crore in 9MFY11
vs. | 2,260 crore in FY10. Unity’s order book currently stands at | 3573
crore, 2.2x TTM order book to bill ratio. While revenue visibility remains
low indicating muted earning growth, we have maintained our BUY
rating due to attractive valuation and better return ratios than its peers.

Grey market premium, IPO, Feb 19:: Acropetal, Fineotex, Sudar Garments, SBI Bonds

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Company Name
Offer Price
Premium
Kostak

(Rs.)
(Rs.)
(Rs.)




Acropetal
88 to 90
2.25-2.75
1,900-2,100
Fineotex
60 to 72
4.25-4.75
2,000-2,200
72 to 77
 1 to 2

SBI Bonds


9,000-10,000


PINC -Top 13 Picks; Feb 2011 - Conviction BUY Calls

USHA MARTIN: BUY, TP-Rs82 (41% upside): PINC Top Picks

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USHA MARTIN: BUY, TP-Rs82 (41% upside)


What’s the theme?
We expect Usha Martin to benefit from 32% volume CAGR over FY10-FY12E and improved cost structure
with completion of capacity expansion of metallics by 0.4mtpa and steel by 0.6mtpa and full integration
from mineral resources to value-added products. Though there are concerns over execution of volumes
mainly due to one-time events (breakdown of a 30MW CPP, inadequate power from the grid and captive
coal logistics issues) in Q3FY11, we believe that these are factored-in the price. At CMP of Rs58 we find
the risk-reward favorable. On a consolidated level we estimate 29% EBITDA CAGR and 26% EPS CAGR
over FY10-FY12.

ULTRATECH CEMENT: BUY, TP-Rs1,177 (25% upside) : PINC Top Picks

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What’s the theme?
The cement industry has suffered due to over supply and substantial rise in costs. Cement demand is expected
to pick up in the current quarter and continue until the onset of monsoon, giving price flexibility to manufacturers.
Although all is still not well for the sector, the intense pain of Q2FY11 appears to be behind us.

TATA STEEL: BUY, TP-Rs817 (32% upside): PINC Top Picks

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TATA STEEL: BUY, TP-Rs817 (32% upside)


What’s the theme?
We expect Tata Steel's EBITDA to grow at 42% CAGR over FY10-12, driven by its increasing share of
profitable Indian operations with additional capacity at Jamshedpur, turnaround at Tata Steel Europe
(TSE), capital restructuring, leaner cost structure, partial resource integration, and improving steel
profitability. We expect Tata Steel's consolidated net profit to be Rs60.7bn in FY11 and Rs64.0bn in FY12.
We find the stock attractively valued at 4.8x FY12E EV/EBITDA.

NIIT TECH: BUY, TP-Rs300 (56% upside) :PINC Top Picks

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NIIT TECH: BUY, TP-Rs300 (56% upside)


What’s the theme?
NIIT Tech has large exposure to high-growth niche verticals such as insurance and travel. New service
lines would boost non-linear growth and lead to improvement in realizations. NIIT Tech has been able to
achieve volume growth in Europe despite economic headwinds.

Mahindra & Mahindra: BUY, TP-Rs883 (32% upside) :PINC Top Picks

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Mahindra & Mahindra: BUY, TP-Rs883 (32% upside) 



What’s the theme?
With a significant rural presence, M&M would benefit from strong monsoons this year. The automobile
segment is expected to record growth of 22.4% in FY11 and 13.2% in FY12, led by new product launches.
The tractor segment too would grow 15.8% in FY11, underpinned by higher crop output.

LUPIN: BUY, TP-Rs537 (27% upside) :PINC Top Picks

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LUPIN: BUY, TP-Rs537 (27% upside)


What’s the theme?
Lupin is one of the best plays in the pharma space, given its strong execution capabilities, improving
financial performance and diversifying business model. The high-margin branded generic business has
been the key differentiator. Strong growth on the US front (both branded generic and generic segments)
and improvement in operating margins would maintain the growth momentum.

JYOTHY LABS: BUY, TP-Rs281 (22% upside): PINC Top Picks

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JYOTHY LABS: BUY, TP-Rs281 (22% upside)


What’s the theme?
We are bullish on Jyothy's long-term growth as it rolls out key brands nationally and expands its laundry
business. Excluding the QIP money and the underlying value of its subsidiary, JFSL (laundry business),
would result in lower valuation for its FMCG business. Jyothy has underperformed the BSE FMCG Index
by 5% in the past three months and offers room for further upside.

JAGRAN PRAKASHAN (JPL): BUY, TP-Rs165 (39% upside): PINC Top Picks

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JAGRAN PRAKASHAN (JPL): BUY, TP-Rs165 (39% upside)


What’s the theme?
We like JPL for its its leadership position in UP (the largest print market in terms of readership and print ad
value), strong position in growing regions like Bihar and Jharkhand, better cost efficiency, phased and
planned expansion into other forms of media businesses, and a wider portfolio (including Mid-Day). 9MFY11
business growth (20% ad growth) strengthens our belief that it is well poised to benefit from steady growth
in the print media sector.

IRB INFRA: BUY, TP-Rs269 (54% upside) :PINC Top Picks

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IRB INFRA: BUY, TP-Rs269 (54% upside)


What’s the theme?
IRB infra is a proxy play on Indian road sector. IRB is amongst the largest BOT operator in India with in
house execution capabilities and currently have 16 BOT projects under portfolio, of which ten are
operational, five under construction and one project is in advance stage of financial closure. IRB is well
positioned to add projects worth $1bn i.e about 4-6 BOT projects per annum without any equity dilution.

HCL TECH: BUY, TP-Rs615 (27% upside) :PINC Top Picks

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What’s the theme?
Uptick in discretionary IT spend and recovery in the European market will boost volume growth for HCL
Tech. Further, strengthening of EUR against USD will have positive near-term impact.

GODAWARI POWER: BUY, TP-Rs272 (53% upside):PINC Top Picks

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What’s the theme?
We expect GPIL to benefit from earnings CAGR of 41% over FY10-FY12E on volume growth and margin
expansion. This would be driven by higher output from Ari Dongri mines, 0.6mntpa pellet plant, and 20MW
biomass power plant that have started giving results from Q3FY11. Further, 0.6 mtpa pellet plant of 75%
subsidiary Ardent Steel's has also started to stabilize and is expected to provide additional earnings
growth Q4FY11 onwards (not factored in our earnings estimates).

BAJAJ AUTO: BUY, TP-Rs1,649 (25% upside) :PINC Top Picks

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 What’s the theme?
With the success of Pulsar135 and Discover twins (100cc and 150cc), Bajaj Auto's brand-centric strategy has
been validated. The high-margin brands, Pulsar and Discover, now account for 70% of the company's motorcycle
sales. In addition, continued demand for three-wheelers and robust exports would help Bajaj Auto achieve
volume growth of 37.8% and 13.8% in FY11E and FY12E respectively. We expect profitability to be maintained
at current levels of 20%.

Buy Adhunik Metaliks;; Target :Rs109:: ICICI Securities,

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Adhunik Metaliks:: Good show by mining segment…
Adhunik Metaliks’ Q3FY11 results came in better than our estimates.
The topline improved ~16% YoY and remained flat QoQ at | 435 crore
against the expected | 423 crore. On the revenue front, the iron and
steel segment contributed ~| 356 crore, growing ~ 13% YoY. OMML’s
revenues grew a robust 86% YoY at | 112 crore due to higher
manganese ore sales volumes and realisations. Consolidated EBITDA
fell ~1170 bps YoY and ~300 bps QoQ due to higher raw material costs
for coke and iron ore. Consolidated PAT for Q3FY11 came in at~ | 54
crore against the expected | 43 crore (up ~116% YoY and down ~4%
QoQ) despite higher interest cost (up ~60% YoY and 12% QoQ). With
the ramping up of mining activities both in iron ore and manganese ore
and commissioning of 540 MW power plant by March 2012, we maintain
our positive outlook on the company. Also, have revised our target price
to | 109, with a BUY rating.

ASHOK LEYLAND: BUY, TP-Rs76 (40% upside): PINC Top Picks

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What’s the theme?
The commercial vehicle (CV) segment took a hit for a couple of months to absorb pre-buying due to new
emission norms, effective October 1, 2010. The domestic truck segment picked up momentum since December
2010 on strong economic growth. Further, increased production at Ashok Leyland's Uttarakhand facility is
expected to boost margins.

Buy Mercator Lines; Target :Rs46:: ICICI Securities,

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Mercator Lines:: Value buy…
MLL reported a subdued Q3FY11 performance as the company posted a
marginal net profit. The surge in revenue was solely attributable to the
coal division, which contributed more than 50% to the topline while the
tanker division reported a dismal set of numbers. Going ahead, the
contribution of the coal division to the topline is expected to be higher
as MLL scales up coal trading and mining activities. However, as coal
trading is a low margin business, the overall operating margin for the
company is expected to remain modest, going ahead. Subsequent to
the end of the quarter the company contracted to sell its jack up rig.
With this sale the company has completely exited the offshore business
and intends to focus and scale up its floating production and storage
business. The company operates a diversified fleet of 30 vessels, which
along with long-term contracts provides a hedge against the volatile
shipping business. With the recent price correction, the stock is trading
at 0.39x its FY12 book value of | 103 and offering a value buying
opportunity for investors.

Reduce Aban Offshore; Target : Rs539:: ICICI Securities,

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Aban Offshore:: Risk reward unfavourable…
Aban Offshore (Aban) reported subdued Q3FY11 results mainly on
account of a delay in deployment of its assets on long-term charter
contracts. Despite the recent correction in stock price we remain
cautious on the medium-term outlook for the company on account of
significant headwinds. The foremost concern is the repayment of ~ |
3300 crore of debt, part of which comes up for repayment in April 2011.
In order to facilitate the repayment, the company would either have to
refinance the debt or consider equity dilution options. Although equity
dilution would be more damaging as it would expand the equity base
substantially, refinance at higher interest costs would also lead to
pressure on PAT. Further, five of its assets are coming out of long-term
contracts over the next four months and a delay in placement of assets
could lead to a pressure on the performance. Lastly, six out of its 19
vessels are deployed on long-term contracts in Iran. This is a matter of
concern considering the current political scenario.

Add Kingfisher Airlines; Target :Rs 49 :: ICICI Securities

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Kingfisher Airlines:: Rising yields drive growth...
In Q3FY11, Kingfisher Airlines (KFA) reported consolidated revenues of
|1,658.7 crore (up 28.1% YoY, 20.0% QoQ), which remained more or
less in line with our expectations (I-direct estimate: |1,690.1 crore). The
growth in revenue was mainly driven by strong growth in yield per
ASKM (domestic yields up 16.2% YoY, international yields up 40.7%
YoY) on robust demand despite a decline in the domestic market share
led by a reduction in the total number of flights. It declined 5.8% YoY to
30,883 (domestic, international) due to unplanned grounding of Airbus
aircraft. At the PAT level, KFA reported a net loss of |253.9 crore (Idirect
estimate: |168.5 crore). It remained lower due to higher interest
and depreciation costs.

Buy Simplex Infrastructure; Target : Rs366: ICICI Securities,

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Simplex Infrastructure:: Order inflow traction continues…
While Simplex Infrastructure’s (SIL) Q3FY11 results came below our
expectation, the order inflow continues to remain strong for SIL. With
order inflow of | 2,128 crore in Q3FY11, the order book stands at |
13,912 crore, 3x order book to bill ratio (on TTM basis). Beside this, the
company has bagged orders worth | 900 crore till date and has L-1 bids
of | 1938 crore. While revenue growth is expected to be marginal in
FY11E, the management has guided at revenue growth of 20-25% in
FY12E. We recommend a BUY rating on the stock.

Strong Buy- Tata Motors; Target : 1523:: ICICI Securities,

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Tata Motors::JLR lifts Tata Motors into orbit…
Tata Motors (TML) reported stellar Q3FY11 numbers on the back of
another impressive Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) performance. The
consolidated topline was at | 31,685.2 crore (up 21.3% YoY and 10.3%
QoQ) driven by JLR’s topline growth (up 35.6% YoY) and standalone
performance (up 28.3% YoY). Standalone net sales were slightly above
our expectations at | 11,519.6 crore, a 28.3% YoY jump (I-direct
estimate: | 11,006.1 crore) aided by volume and realisation jump of
17.3%, 9.4% YoY, respectively. On the margins front, TML’s standalone
soared as they improved 70 bps QoQ on higher low cost inventory and
SG&A costs management. On a consolidated basis, TML continues to
surprise positively with impressive margins at 15.2% (up 70 bps QoQ
and 380 bps YoY) as JLR, which contributes ~71% of EBITDA, had an
impressive 17.4% margin. The JLR business contributed ~59% on
topline and ~79% on bottomline as volume growth remained strong in
Q3FY11 (13.6% YoY), a richer product mix and favourable geographies.
On bottomline, the standalone and consolidated numbers were at |
410.0 crore (2.5% YoY jump) and | 2,424.4 crore (277% QoQ jump),
respectively. It has improved on higher accumulated tax credits.

Weekly Review Report - February 19, 2011 :Angel Broking

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Markets bounce back
The Indian stock market ended the three-week losing spree, with the Sensex
and Nifty gaining 2.7% and 2.8% of their value, respectively. However, the
market gave up some of its gains on the last day of the week. Food inflation
fell further to 11.1% from 13.1% in the previous week, thereby reducing
investor concerns. Overall WPI inflation for January fell to 8.2% from 8.4%
earlier. BSE mid-cap and small-cap indices outperformed the large-cap
counterparts during the week, gaining 2.9% and 4.1%, respectively. On the
sectoral front, the Bankex outperformed the other indices, gaining 4.9%
during the week, followed by the BSE Metal index, which increased by 4.0%.
BSE Realty fell over yet another week, losing 2.2% of its value.

Sell Varun Shipping; Target :Rs 24 :ICICI Securities,

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Varun Shipping: Under stress…
Varun Shipping Co (Varun Shipping) reported yet another quarter of
dismal performance in Q3FY11 with the topline contracting to the
lowest level in almost three years. EBITDA margin has contracted to
under 3% with EBITDA of | 2.9 crore. The interest (| 52.4 crore) and
depreciation (| 43.5 crore) resulted in a net loss from operations of |
86.1 crore in Q3FY11. The operational performance of Varun Shipping is
likely to be under pressure for another couple of years as freight rates
continue to remain subdued. The sale and lease back arrangement
would continue to put a strain on the EBITDA margin and the
performance could deteriorate further in the absence of extraordinary
gains from sale of assets. The company has sold two AHTS vessels in
Q3FY11, to enable repayment of debt. In the absence of a turnaround in
operations, debt servicing could become a concern. Further pledge of
shares by the promoters is an added concern for the company.

Sundaram Capital Protection Oriented Fund - Series 2

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Traditional savings schemes and fixed deposits offer safety at the cost of lower returns. Although equity markets provide the possibility of higher returns, not everybody can endure the volatility associated with them. In such a scenario, there is a need for a product that can offer you the capital safety features of fixed deposits along with the ability to deliver higher returns. Sundaram Capital Protection Oriented Fund – Series 2 seeks to seamlessly achieve the best of both worlds! It is a 5 year close ended scheme that seeks to maximize returns while ensuring protection of your capital. The scheme predominantly invests in high quality AAA rated bonds while taking a marginal exposure to equities and related instruments.

Investment Strategy:

Sundaram Capital Protection Oriented Fund aims for fixed deposit-plus returns without losing sight of capital protection orientation. The scheme endeavours to preserve your capital by investing primarily (about 70%) into high quality fixed income instruments. As the debt papers are held till maturity, changes in interest rates would not affect the scheme’s objectives. It also seeks to generate capital appreciation by investing a part of the funds (about 30%) into stocks forming part of S&P CNX 500 Index. (An analysis of the performance of S&P CNX 500 Index over 5-year periods (1,373 periods since March 2002) shows that there was not a single period of negative return! The lowest return was in fact 5.31%). The scheme’s equity portfolio would be multi-cap oriented in a bid to outperform the broader market indices. The scheme has been rated AAA (so) by CRISIL indicating highest degree of certainty regarding the timely payment of face value of investment.   

Reasons to invest in the fund:

  • Diversification – Portfolio mix of debt and equity securities

  • Low Interest Rate Risk – Debt papers are held until maturity

  • Low Credit Risk – Investments in high quality AAA rated debt papers

  • Tax Efficiency – Benefit of Indexation on Long Term Capital Gains

  • Returns – Inflation beating returns by investing in equities

  • Conservative Investors: Equity participation with capital protection orientation


Fund Features:

Particulars
Details
Scheme Type
Close ended capital protection oriented scheme
Maturity Period
5 Years
NFO Opens
February 15, 2011
NFO Closes
February 28, 2011
Asset Allocation:

Debt & Money Market Instruments
70-100%
Equity & Related Instruments
0-30%
Entry & Exit Load
Nil
Options
Growth & Dividend Payout
Benchmark
CRISIL MIP Blended Index
Minimum Investment
Rs.5,000
Fund Managers
Dwijendra Srivastava & S. Krishna Kumar


Buy IVRCL Infrastructures; Target : Rs 84:: ICICI Securities,

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IVRCL Infrastructures:: Execution starts picking up…
IVRCL’s Q3FY11 results came marginally below our expectations largely
due to a sharp jump in interest expenses. On the positive side,
execution has started picking up with 14% revenue growth in Q3FY11
while the EBITDA margin came at 9.4% despite provisioning of | 12
crore associated with long dated claims. The order book was healthy at
| 24,200 crore and captive order book accounts for ~25% in the current
order book. The pick-up in execution of captive BOT orders (three
projects got financial closure [FC] and three would be done in some
time) holds the key for FY12 revenue growth. We recommend a BUY
rating with a price target of | 84.

Buy Apollo Hospitals Target :Rs545:: ICICI Securities,

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Apollo Hospitals:: Result disappoints a bit…
Apollo Hospitals’ revenues grew 25% YoY to | 600.9 crore (I-direct
estimate: | 627.4 crore) with the hospital and pharmacy segment’s
revenue growing 22.8% and 30.4% YoY, respectively. The revenue
growth was lower than our expectations mainly due to the moderation
in growth of the pharmacy segment that accounts for nearly 28% of
topline) and single digit growth of 9.9% and 8.5% in in-patient volumes
in Chennai and Hyderabad, respectively. In contrast, the growth in
revenue per patient per bed (ARPOB) remained healthy and helped to
contain the margin contraction to some extent. As a result, operating
margins declined only 47 bps YoY to 15.7%. Interest costs continued to
remain higher on the back of higher debt. As a result, net profit grew by
only 4.3% YoY to | 45.8 crore and remained below our expectations (Idirect
estimate: | 50.2 crore).

Patel Engineering :Target: Rs 223 HORIZON: 1-30 Days: Anand Rathi

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Patel Engineering:  TGT: 223 HORIZON: 1-30 Days
Investment Rationale
Patel Engineering, is a civil engineering major with strong
presence in hydro-power, irrigation and transportation
projects. PEL’s core competency lies in constructing hydropower
plants and up stream irrigation projects.
It is also present in real estate with a bank of 1127 acres,
which it proposes to develop in phased manner. There are
on going projects in Bengaluru and Mumbai at Jogeshwari.
It has also started booking revenue from the Bengaluru
projects and has also received good response for the
launched projects.

Add Patel Engineering; Target :Rs 191: ICICI Securities,

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Patel Engineering: Lower visibility to weigh on core business…
Patel Engineering (PEL) reported a disappointing set of Q3FY11 results
with revenues witnessing a 31.3% YoY fall to | 435 crore on the back of
i) flash floods affecting two hydropower project (Teesta and Parvati), ii)
heavy snowfall affecting US projects, iii) delay in execution of Pranahita
and Kotlibel projects and iv) cancellation of the Loharinagpala hydro
project. Considering the slower topline growth due to execution delays
and muted order book growth, high debt level leading to higher interest
outgo and lack of clarity over tax liability on account of raids in Q3FY11,
we have assigned an ADD rating to the stock.

Apollo Tyres; Buy Target : 62 ::ICICI Securities

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Apollo Tyres -Positive surprise amid rubber headwinds…
Apollo Tyres (ATL) reported its Q3FY11 results above our estimates
while the strong subsidiary performance improved consolidated results
and domestic business performed above expectations. ATL had net
sales of | 1432.0 crore, a jump of 8.2% YoY and 21.8% QoQ as volumes
jumped 20.8% QoQ with the increasing ramp-up in the Chennai facility
and normalisation of production in the Kerala unit. The steep increase in
rubber prices was seen in the recipe cost (without stock adjustment) at
| 150.6/kg (55.6% higher YoY) though the presence of higher low cost
inventory helped reduce net recipe cost to | 126/kg.The EBITDA margin
at 10.4% was further boosted by cost management with lower other
expenses (120 bps QoQ). The consolidated topline and PAT grew to |
2368.7 crore (21.5% QoQ) and | 74.2 crore (127%QoQ) on the back of
strong topline and EBIT margin of Vredestein Banden BV (VBV) at
13.6%( up 540 bps QoQ) and Dunlop at 2.6% (up 540 bps QoQ).

Sudar Garments - IPO Note (Keynote Capitals)

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Issue Highlights

Price Band                                                       :        Rs72-77 per share                                                                            
Minimum Bid Lot Size                                     :        81 Equity Shares
Maximum Bid Lot Size                                     :        2,592 Equity Shares
IPO open during                                              :        February 21 - 24, 2011
Book Running Lead Managers                         :        Ashika Capital Ltd.
To list on                                                         :        NSE & BSE
IPO Grading                                                     :        1 / 5 (CRISIL)
PE                                                                    :        7.92x (based on base price)*
                                                                        :        8.47x (based on cap price)*
Market Cap post-listing                                    :        Rs142.81Cr or $32mn (based on the cap price)
Market Cap of Free Float                                  :        Rs77.19Cr or $17mn (based on the cap price)
*Based on FY10 EPS
IPO of mn equity shares of Rs10 each, aggregating to Rs70Cr or $15.5mn (at the cap price)

ICICI Sec:: Week Ahead : Broader range of 5300-5650 is expected for the coming week

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Previous Week : Sensex was up by 483 points or 2.7%, to close at 18211
 
 
Indian equities bounced back during the week and saw brisk selling again on the last trading day. Nifty traded in a range of 5310 - 5600.
On a WoW basis, the Sensex was up by 483 points or 2.7%, to
close at 18211
The S&P CNX Nifty also closed in the green up by 170 points, or
3.2%, to close at 5480 for the week
Realty and ADAG stocks were the major losers, with stocks such as
Unitech, Reliance Communication, Reliance Capital, Reliance Infra bearing the brunt
With prices of commodities like sugar and wheat declining a little bit,
annual inflation in India based on wholesale prices eased marginally to 8.23%
Beaten down infrastructure stocks saw some value buying at lower
 levels but ended the week well off their highs for the week
The reiteration by the Prime Minister to strike a balance between
growth and inflation with a realistic target of 7% for inflation and 8.5% for growth lifted broader sentiments
Amongst the key economic data releases, annual food inflation for
the week ended February 5, 2011 was 11.05% a nine week low (previous recording at 13.07%)
In US, the Commerce Department in a report said retail sales rose 0.3% in January 2011. The New York Federal Reserve has said in a report that the general business conditions index rose to 15.4 in February 2011 from 11.9 in January 2011 with a positive reading indicating growth in regional manufacturing activity. The Fed raised its 2011 GDP growth expectations to a range of 3.4-3.9%. The Commerce Department reported that the housing rate reported a jump of 14.6% to an annual rate of 596,000 in January 2011. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve said its index of regional manufacturing activity jumped to 35.9 in February 2011 from 19.3 in January 2011 while economists had expected the index to edge up to 22.0. On Friday, China raised Reserve requirement ratio by banks by 50 bps. 
 
WeeAhead : Broader range of 5300-5650 is expected for the coming week
 
 
Nifty has bounced back on week on week after falling for previous 3 weeks. During the month of February so far, FII were net sellers to the tune of 3140 crores while domestic funds are net buyers to the tune of3328 crores.
Among the key global data to watch for in next week is Richmond
Manufacturing Index, US Existing home sales, Initial jobless claims, EMU New industrial orders
Nifty opened the week with a gap-up action and continued to exhibit
strength for most part of the week. The index witnessed a round of profit bookings as it approached the key resistance zone of around 5600-5650 in the session on Friday
For the coming week, Nifty is likely to find support around 5370-5320
range
On the higher side, 5560 is the immediate resistance sustaining
above which the index will re-attempt to move to the 5600-5650 range