19 February 2011

Buy Unity Infraprojects; Target :Rs69:: ICICI Securities,

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Unity Infraprojects:: Results below expectation…
Unity Infraprojects’ (Unity) Q3FY11 results were below our estimates
due to i) extended monsoon and ii) ban on sand mining in the coastal
region of Maharashtra. OPM at 12.4% was marginally lower than our
estimates of 12.8% due to lower absorption of overhead due to slower
execution and rising commodity pressure. Order inflow sluggishness is
a major concern for Unity with order intake of | 1,227 crore in 9MFY11
vs. | 2,260 crore in FY10. Unity’s order book currently stands at | 3573
crore, 2.2x TTM order book to bill ratio. While revenue visibility remains
low indicating muted earning growth, we have maintained our BUY
rating due to attractive valuation and better return ratios than its peers.

􀂃 Lower than expected results due to slower execution
Unity reported revenues of | 445.3 crore, lower than our estimates of
| 491.6 crore due to slower execution on account of i) extended
monsoons and ii) ban on sand mining in the coastal region of
Maharashtra. OPM at 12.4% was marginally lower than our estimates
of 12.8% due to lower absorption of overhead due to slower
execution. PAT at | 22.5 crore was higher than our estimates of | 28.2
crore on the back of slippages in topline and operating margins.
􀂃 Order inflow muted in 9MFY11, order book at | 3573 crore
Unity’s order inflow remained muted in 9MFY11 with order intake of |
1,227 crore in 9MFY11 vs. | 2,260 crore in FY10. Unity’s order book
currently stands at | 3573 crore implying TTM order book to bill ratio
of 2.2x, providing lower revenue visibility of ~two years. Additionally,
the company is currently L-1 bidder for orders worth | 300 crore.
Valuation
Considering the lower than expected growth in 9MFY11 and continued
sluggishness in order inflow, we have cut our EPS estimates for FY11
and FY12 to | 12.3 and | 11.6 vs. | 14.3 and | 15.9, respectively, earlier.
At the CMP, Unity is trading at 5.4x FY12 earning estimates and 0.6x
FY12 P/BV. While revenue visibility remains low indicating muted
earning growth, we maintain our BUY rating and target of | 69 due to
attractive valuations and better return ratios compared to its peers.


Results lower than our expectation…
• Unity reported revenues of | 445.3 crore lower than our estimates
of | 491.6 crore due to lower execution on account of i) extended
monsoon and ii) ban on sand mining in the coastal region of
Maharashtra, which is a key raw material
• The OPM at 12.4% was marginally lower than our estimate of
12.8% on account of lower absorption of overhead due to slower
execution
• PAT at | 22.5 crore was higher than our estimates of | 28.2 crore
on the back of slippages in topline and operating margin
• The debts of the company rose from | 695 crore in Q2FY11 to |
725 crore in Q3FY11
Order inflow sluggishness a major concern
• Unity’s order book stood at | 3,573 crore, 2.2x order book to bill
(on TTM basis) providing revenue visibility over the next two
years
• In terms of vertical wise break up, the water & irrigation projects
account for 55% of the order book followed by civil construction
(38%) and road & transportation (7%)
• The company is also L1 bidder for projects worth ~| 300 crore


Order inflow in Q3FY11
Description Amount (| cr)
Construction of Lecture Theatre Block & laboratory Complex at IISER Campus, Pune 89.0
Construction of tower at Industrial Estate, Mancheswar, Bhubaneswar 69.2
Construction of SEZ Project (IT Park) at Hinjewadi, Pune 42.0
Construction of Three Towers (B1, B2,B3) of Slim Fit Housing at Hinjewadi, Pune 24.5
Construction of Houses incl. internal sanitary & internal electricals at Lalganj, Raebareli 145.0
369.5
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research

Valuation
Considering the lower than expected growth in 9MFY11 and continued
sluggishness in order inflow, we have cut our EPS estimates for FY11 and
FY12 to | 12.3 and | 11.6 vs. | 14.3 and | 15.9, respectively, earlier.
At the CMP, Unity is trading at 5.4x FY12 earning estimates and 0.6x FY12
P/BV. While revenue visibility remains low indicating muted earning
growth, we have maintained our BUY rating due to attractive valuations
and better return ratio compared to its peers.

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