Showing posts with label anant raj. Show all posts
Showing posts with label anant raj. Show all posts
02 February 2015
01 September 2014
Technicals: Aban Offshore, Anant Raj, Gateway Distriparks, PTC, SCI, Tata Metaliks : Business Line
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I have purchased Aban Offshore at ₹820 and wish to hold it. Kindly let me know the short-, medium- and long-term outlook.
B. Parab
Aban Offshore (₹732.6): Following a sharp fall in early July this year, the stock found support at ₹750 and bounded up. However, this up-move failed to turn into an uptrend.
After hitting resistance at around ₹800 in early August, the stock started to decline and decisively breached the key support at ₹750. This level has now turned into a key resistance level. Only a strong breakthrough of ₹750 will take the stock higher to ₹800 and then to ₹830 in the medium term. Next resistance above ₹830 is pegged at ₹940.
But a decisive fall below the stock’s immediate support at ₹700 will have an adverse effect and the stock can decline to ₹600 and then ₹550 in the medium to long term. In this scenario, exit the stock and buy at lower levels.
Subsequent supports below ₹550 are placed at ₹500 and ₹450.

I hold Anant Raj at ₹70. Shall I hold for the long term?
Biju P
Anant Raj (₹57.7): The stock of Anant Raj is in a long-term downtrend; only a strong move above ₹150 will bring in bullish momentum. But this is unlikely to happen as the stock’s significant resistance at ₹100 is limiting rallies. In early June 2014, the stock encountered a hurdle around ₹85 and began to decline. It has been on a short-term downtrend since then. However, the stock is currently testing the 200-day moving average and an important support at ₹54, which can provide a near-term breather.
A fall below this level will strengthen the downtrend and drag the stock down to ₹50 and then to ₹42 levels in the medium term. Exit the stock on rallies. Immediate resistances are at ₹65 and ₹74 levels.
Is it better to hold shares of Gateway Distripacks purchased at ₹240 or sell? Please give the technical outlook.
Ajit
Gateway Distriparks (₹255): Though the stock breached the key resistance at ₹245 in the previous week after testing it for over two months, its indicators are projecting a bleak medium-term outlook. Having stuck to the stock for many years, it is advisable that you exit the stock now and re-enter at a later stage.
The stock has important support band between ₹220 and ₹230; a decisive fall below this will pave way for a downmove to ₹180. Next support is at ₹155. Important resistances are at ₹261 and ₹270.
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Tata Metaliks
13 February 2013
Anant Raj Industries Sales strong, rentals decline:: Prabhudas Lilladher
! Broadly in‐line: Anantraj reported revenues of Rs1.7bn, growth of 88% YoY &
34% QoQ, slightly ahead of our estimates on account of a land sale worth
Rs126m. Besides, the quarter also witnessed the ‘Sector 63’, Gurgaon project
crossing the revenue threshold this quarter.
EBITDA margins stood at 42% as against 53% in Q3FY12 as well as a similar
number in Q2FY13. The lower margins would also be on lower margin land sales
during the quarter. PAT stood at Rs531m, growth of 68% YoY & 7% QoQ, in-line
with our estimates.
! Sales & Revenue Break‐up: Sales during the quarter was largely contributed by
Sector 63, Gurgaon (~80%) and the remaining by ‘Neemrana’ and ‘Maceo’
(Sector 91, Gurgaon) projects. With regards to revenue recognition, 16.8% was
contributed by Maceo, 20.7% by Manesar, 12% by Neemrana, 35.5% by Sector
63, Gurgaon and 15% together by rentals and land sales.
! Rentals witnessed a sequential decline: Rentals declined from Rs153m in
Q2FY13 to Rs130m due to the expiry of the management contract on one of its
hotels. The shift from one operator to another led to a lag of three months.
Besides, some leases also expired at Manesar IT Park which has not yet been
renewed.
! Valuations: The company’s net assets are valued at Rs44.3bn, of which, we
deduct debt of Rs12.8bn which gives us a value of Rs31.5bn, translating to
Rs107/share. To arrive at our target price, we have valued the company at 15%
discount to NAV which gives a value of Rs91. We maintain ‘Accumulate’.
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Prabhudas Lilladher
15 June 2012
Jaiprakash Associates -TP: INR103 Buy :Motilal Oswal
4QFY12 EBITDA/PAT above estimates: During 4QFY12, Jaiprakash Associates reported standalone revenues of
INR41b (up 4% YoY), EBITDA of INR10b (up 32 % YoY), and net profit stood of INR2.8b (down 3.3% YoY). Reported
EBIDTA/PAT is better than our estimate of INR32b and INR6.8b, respectively. Operating performance is driven
by higher EPC / RE division, while performance of Cement division was muted. Interest cost for the quarter
was higher at INR5.8b (vs INR4.5b QoQ), which negated gain on operational front. Lower Tax/PBT ratio (9%)
however arrested PAT de-growth (PBT down 19% YoY).
Cement business performance muted: Cement division sales for 4QFY12 stood at 4.25m tons (flat QoQ)
pertaining to JAL (Gujarat cement plant divested in Jaypee Cement - 100% subsidiary). Realisation / EBIDTA
for the division was up by INR25/ton and INR82/ton QoQ. EBIT for the division however stood flat at INR2.1b
owing to higher depreciation.
E&C business performance driven by higher margin: EPC division performance was driven by superior margin
(EBIT margin at 24%, while revenue down 1% YoY) due to completion of Yamuna Expressway, Karcham Wangtoo
project, etc. Real estate division revenues picked up after 3-quarters of lull performance, which along with
higher EBIT margin (45% for 4Q) led to higher positive contribution QoQ.
Focus on deleverage (consolidated FY12 net DER at 3.8x): For JPA group, the earnings/cashflows will be driven
by commissioning of projects across its cement (10m tons), power (1.5GW), infrastructure (toll road project,
INR133b cost) and real estate (traction in launches, bookings) business. JPA group plans to focus on
consolidation and de-leveraging (consolidated net DER of 3.8x as at March 2012) and is exploring various
options.
Downgrading FY13/14E estimates, maintain Buy: We marginally downgrade (2-4%) our earnings for JPA to
factor in higher interest cost, which is partially set-off due to strong cement realisation, EPC/RE business
traction. We now expect JPA to report standalone net profit of INR8.2b in FY13E (down 20% YoY) and INR11.1b
in FY14E (up 37% YoY). Maintain Buy with TP of INR103/sh.
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Motilal oswal
14 June 2012
Anant Raj Industries : TP: INR80 Buy :Motilal Oswal
Anant Raj's 4QFY12 results were impacted due to reversal of INR1.15b revenue from Kapasera project which
was discontinued in 4QFY12, due to unfavorable verdict Delhi Municipal Authority notification with regard to
certain permissions.
Revenue was up 3% YoY to INR654m, EBITDA down 59% YoY to INR187m, and PAT down 63% YoY to INR112m.
However, adjusting for the reversal, revenue booking has been healthy at INR1.8b, 2x QoQ. Rental income
from commercial / hotel projects stood at INR264m v/s INR232m in 3Q. Incremental rental came from higher
contribution from Kirti Nagar mall and Hotel Tricolor which commenced operations in Jan-12.
Ongoing projects witnessed strong QoQ growth in sales at 0.7msf (INR3.6b) as against 0.4msf (INR0.9b), led by
good response in Golf Course Road project. FY12 sales value was up 30% YoY to INR7b.
Net debt stood at INR10.5b (marginally up QoQ); net DER was 0.27x. The management targets ~INR4-5b debt
reduction over next 12-18 months, banking on a strong cash flow from Golf Course Road project.
ARCP has a quality land bank and wide presence across asset classes enabling multiple revenue streams and
relatively healthy liquidity. With ~13msf (~INR8.4b) of land acquisition during FY11 at an attractive cost, the
company is strongly placed to unlock significant value through its monetization.
Despite strong sales over FY11-12, the lower collections (~INR1.1b out of INR8b) raises concern over quality of
sales. However, initial response to Golf Course Road project is a positive. With no major launch plan over
FY13-14, we expect success of Golf Course project would be the deciding factor for its operating performance.
Major challenges: (1) Subdued leasing momentum in its commercial projects such as Manesar IT park, and (2)
Slower execution pace till date.
The stock trades at 9.5x FY13E EPS of INR4.8, 0.3x FY13E BV and at ~ 58% discount to our NAV of INR110.
Maintain Buy.
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Motilal oswal
01 April 2012
Technicals- Karur Vysya Bank, Anant raj, hcl, NMDC, NTPC, Bata, :: Business Line
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Investors can buy the stock on declines with stop at Rs 350. Those already in possession of the stock can continue to hold with stop at Rs 350. Medium-term view will turn negative only on a weekly close below this level. Subsequent supports are at Rs 306 and Rs 260.
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Please discuss the medium- and long-term outlook of Karur Vysya Bank. Can I enter the stock at this level?
J. Senthan
Karur Vysya Bank (Rs 372.9): Karur Vysya Bank has weathered the market correction in 2011 quite well. It has retraced about 38.2 per cent of the rally from March 2009 low and is currently attempting to hold above this level. The structural trend in this stock continues to be up.
Investors can buy the stock on declines with stop at Rs 350. Those already in possession of the stock can continue to hold with stop at Rs 350. Medium-term view will turn negative only on a weekly close below this level. Subsequent supports are at Rs 306 and Rs 260.
Resistances for the months ahead will be at Rs 440 and Rs 500. Those with shorter investment horizon can exit the stock at either of these levels. Inability to move above Rs 500 will keep the stock in the zone between Rs 350 and Rs 500 for a few months.
Such a move will, however, mean that the long-term view stays positive. Long-term targets on break above the Rs 500 ceiling are Rs 565 and Rs 719.
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03 December 2011
Anant Raj Industries- In line quarter ::Prabhudas Lilladher
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ô€‚„ Results in‐line: The company reported revenues of Rs883m, YoY decline of
33.5% and a sequential increase of 6.9%. Margins were steady at 58% as
against 59% in 1Q FY12. PAT remained flat on a sequential basis at Rs346m
while the decline on a YoY basis stood at 28%. In terms of revenue breakup, the
Sector 91 Gurgaon project was the major contributor at 87% while the
Kapashera and Manesar project contributed the remaining.
ô€‚„ Sales during the quarter: Phase 1 of the ‘Neem Rana project’ in Rajasthan,
which consisted of 758 units, was launched this quarter, where it sold about
one-third of the area launched during the quarter and almost two-thirds till
date. However, revenue recognition for this project is expected to commence
from Q3 onwards. Sales at Sector-91, Gurgaon, remained stable with almost
two-thirds of the project being sold out.
􀂄 Launches going forward; The Company is looking at launched plots at its newly
acquired Sector 63 project in Gurgaon. Besides, it also has approvals in place for
its five villa project on Bhagwandas road in Delhi.
ô€‚„ Valuations: As per our estimates, ARIL’s NAV stands at Rs133. Our target price is
based on a 50% discount to the NAV. We maintain ‘Accumulate’, with a target
price of Rs66.
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ô€‚„ Results in‐line: The company reported revenues of Rs883m, YoY decline of
33.5% and a sequential increase of 6.9%. Margins were steady at 58% as
against 59% in 1Q FY12. PAT remained flat on a sequential basis at Rs346m
while the decline on a YoY basis stood at 28%. In terms of revenue breakup, the
Sector 91 Gurgaon project was the major contributor at 87% while the
Kapashera and Manesar project contributed the remaining.
ô€‚„ Sales during the quarter: Phase 1 of the ‘Neem Rana project’ in Rajasthan,
which consisted of 758 units, was launched this quarter, where it sold about
one-third of the area launched during the quarter and almost two-thirds till
date. However, revenue recognition for this project is expected to commence
from Q3 onwards. Sales at Sector-91, Gurgaon, remained stable with almost
two-thirds of the project being sold out.
􀂄 Launches going forward; The Company is looking at launched plots at its newly
acquired Sector 63 project in Gurgaon. Besides, it also has approvals in place for
its five villa project on Bhagwandas road in Delhi.
ô€‚„ Valuations: As per our estimates, ARIL’s NAV stands at Rs133. Our target price is
based on a 50% discount to the NAV. We maintain ‘Accumulate’, with a target
price of Rs66.
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Prabhudas Lilladher
27 November 2011
Anant Raj Industries: TP: INR92 Buy :: Motilal Oswal
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Anant Raj 2QFY12 results are in line with estimates. Revenue de-grew 31% YoY to INR913m (v/s est INR956m).
EBITDA declined 19% YoY to INR509m (v/s est INR526m); EBITDA margin stood at 56% (v/s 59% in 1QFY12). PAT
declined 28% YoY to INR347m (v/s est INR321m).
The company witnessed steady momentum in affordable housing projects (at Sector 91, Gurgaon and Neemrana,
Rajasthan) with ~0.6msf (INR1.6b) of sales in 2QFY12 as against 0.3msf (INR1b) in 1QFY12.
ARCP witnessed ~INR20m increase in quarterly rental income on the back of commencement of operation in Kirti
Nagar mall. However incremental leasing in its ongoing commercial projects such as Manesar and Rai remained
subdued.
The recently acquired Golf Course Road (Sector 63A) integrated township project is yet to receive LOI, although it
has received the notification for R-zone. The company expects to receive LOI over next 1 month.
Net debt increased to ~INR9.5b as against INR8.2b in 4QFY11, implying a net DER of 0.25x.
The stock trades at 6.4x FY13E EPS of INR8, 0.4x FY13E BV and at ~61% discount to our NAV of INR131. Maintain
Buy.
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Anant Raj 2QFY12 results are in line with estimates. Revenue de-grew 31% YoY to INR913m (v/s est INR956m).
EBITDA declined 19% YoY to INR509m (v/s est INR526m); EBITDA margin stood at 56% (v/s 59% in 1QFY12). PAT
declined 28% YoY to INR347m (v/s est INR321m).
The company witnessed steady momentum in affordable housing projects (at Sector 91, Gurgaon and Neemrana,
Rajasthan) with ~0.6msf (INR1.6b) of sales in 2QFY12 as against 0.3msf (INR1b) in 1QFY12.
ARCP witnessed ~INR20m increase in quarterly rental income on the back of commencement of operation in Kirti
Nagar mall. However incremental leasing in its ongoing commercial projects such as Manesar and Rai remained
subdued.
The recently acquired Golf Course Road (Sector 63A) integrated township project is yet to receive LOI, although it
has received the notification for R-zone. The company expects to receive LOI over next 1 month.
Net debt increased to ~INR9.5b as against INR8.2b in 4QFY11, implying a net DER of 0.25x.
The stock trades at 6.4x FY13E EPS of INR8, 0.4x FY13E BV and at ~61% discount to our NAV of INR131. Maintain
Buy.
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Motilal oswal
11 October 2011
Anant Raj Industries - Gurgaon township launch remains key trigger; keep Buy 􀂄 BofA Merrill Lynch,
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A nant Raj Industries Ltd
Gurgaon township launch
remains key trigger; keep Buy
􀂄 Factoring in most downside; lowering PO to Rs82
We maintain our Buy rating on Anant Raj with a reduced PO of Rs82 (Rs105
earlier), offering potential upside of 41% from current levels. Our PO is based on
a 15% discount to our net NAV of Rs96, which factors in a delay in Delhi projects
and a higher cost of Gurgaon land. At our PO, the stock would trade close to one
standard deviation lower than its 3-year average P/B and P/E multiple, which we
believe adequately factors in the risks from a delay in its projects. The key trigger
over the next 6-9 months will be the launch of the Gurgaon township, which
accounts for 28% of its NAV.
Gurgaon township project key to outperformance
In the past two years, Anant Raj has invested about Rs6bn for buying the
Gurgaon land, though our industry sources say that the land is under litigation
with farmers seeking higher compensation. Management has refuted any such
claims and remains confident in its guidance of a project launch in 2HFY12. We
believe, in the worst case, that Anant Raj may have to pay more for the land (we
have already factored in Rs3bn higher compensation) and the project may be
delayed until FY13.
Debt under control, but a further increase could be a worry
Anant Raj has invested over Rs9bn in new land purchases, leading to a sharp
increase in its debt since FY10. But management is looking to cut debt by 30-40%
over the next 12 months, as new residential projects are being launched. While
the leverage remains comfortable, given rising rental income (expect rental
earnings of Rs1.3bn in FY13), we will be cautious if gross debt increases further.
Super luxury project launch could be additional trigger
Anant Raj is looking to launch its super luxury projects in Delhi in FY12, and has
applied for approvals. The launch could act as an additional trigger, though we
have conservatively built in the launch in FY13
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Real Estate/Property - India Fallen Angels: bottom fish selectively �� BofA Merrill Lynch
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27 August 2011
Anant Raj: Large launch awaited ::CLSA
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Large launch awaited
Anantraj continued with its quick churn strategy on newly acquired land
at Gurgaon with a new launch garnering Rs1.1bn in fresh sales. Rentals
are steady and expected to move up as two new properties come on
stream by 3Q. While the Delhi projects keep seeing multiple issues in
approval processes; Anatraj’s focus on building a land bank in Gurgaon
will truly pay-off from 3Q when a launch is expected at its large 160-acre
township project in the city. Low gearing and a steady rental stream add
to attractive valuations. Maintain BUY.
1QFY12 results inline
Anant Raj reported 1QFY12 net profit of Rs351m, +15% QoQ/down 23% YoY.
Revenues increased 32% QoQ/down 19% YoY to Rs838m. Real estate project
revenues rose 45% QoQ with Rs550m contribution coming from its new
launched project Maceo which was c.25% sold. Rental income was up 2%
QoQ/10% YoY to Rs198m. Contribution from Kirti Nagar mall (end 2Q) and
Tricolor hotel (3Q) should increase rental run-rate to c.Rs300m/qtr by 4Q.
Gurgaon township launch expected in 3Q
Anantraj maintained its quick churn strategy by launching Maceo, Gurgaon in
April11 (1.4m sf, 30% sold, land purchased Sep10) and Neemrana, Rajasthan
in July11 (1.8m sf, mass housing, project won 1H10). Focus though is on
launch of its Golf Course Extension Road, Gurgaon township project where it
has spent c.Rs6-7bn in purchasing 160 acres of land. A plotted development
(2.5m sf) is initially expected to be launched in 3QFY11 followed by
apartments (4.0m sf) in 1HFY13.
Delhi project progress a mixed bag
The much delayed Hauz Khas project has suffered a further delay with certain
height restriction issues now delaying FSI utilization. Matter is in court. With
multiple delays already, we now remove the project from our earnings (15-
30% cut to FY12-14 EPS) and NAV calculations (12% cut). Meanwhile, the
Bhagwan Das road project has received majority approvals for launch as a
villa project and the same is expected to be launched within a year.
Strong balance sheet; Attractive valuations
Anantraj added Rs0.4bn in net debt as it worked on completing its land
acquisitions. Gearing, remains comfortable at 0.23x. We continue to like
Anantraj due to low leverage and a healthy mix of commercial properties.
Township launch should also lead to near term excitement in the stock. Target
of Rs100/share is set at 30% discount to Mar’12 NAV of Rs143/share, implies
9x FY13 earnings, 0.8x Mar’11 book.
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Large launch awaited
Anantraj continued with its quick churn strategy on newly acquired land
at Gurgaon with a new launch garnering Rs1.1bn in fresh sales. Rentals
are steady and expected to move up as two new properties come on
stream by 3Q. While the Delhi projects keep seeing multiple issues in
approval processes; Anatraj’s focus on building a land bank in Gurgaon
will truly pay-off from 3Q when a launch is expected at its large 160-acre
township project in the city. Low gearing and a steady rental stream add
to attractive valuations. Maintain BUY.
1QFY12 results inline
Anant Raj reported 1QFY12 net profit of Rs351m, +15% QoQ/down 23% YoY.
Revenues increased 32% QoQ/down 19% YoY to Rs838m. Real estate project
revenues rose 45% QoQ with Rs550m contribution coming from its new
launched project Maceo which was c.25% sold. Rental income was up 2%
QoQ/10% YoY to Rs198m. Contribution from Kirti Nagar mall (end 2Q) and
Tricolor hotel (3Q) should increase rental run-rate to c.Rs300m/qtr by 4Q.
Gurgaon township launch expected in 3Q
Anantraj maintained its quick churn strategy by launching Maceo, Gurgaon in
April11 (1.4m sf, 30% sold, land purchased Sep10) and Neemrana, Rajasthan
in July11 (1.8m sf, mass housing, project won 1H10). Focus though is on
launch of its Golf Course Extension Road, Gurgaon township project where it
has spent c.Rs6-7bn in purchasing 160 acres of land. A plotted development
(2.5m sf) is initially expected to be launched in 3QFY11 followed by
apartments (4.0m sf) in 1HFY13.
Delhi project progress a mixed bag
The much delayed Hauz Khas project has suffered a further delay with certain
height restriction issues now delaying FSI utilization. Matter is in court. With
multiple delays already, we now remove the project from our earnings (15-
30% cut to FY12-14 EPS) and NAV calculations (12% cut). Meanwhile, the
Bhagwan Das road project has received majority approvals for launch as a
villa project and the same is expected to be launched within a year.
Strong balance sheet; Attractive valuations
Anantraj added Rs0.4bn in net debt as it worked on completing its land
acquisitions. Gearing, remains comfortable at 0.23x. We continue to like
Anantraj due to low leverage and a healthy mix of commercial properties.
Township launch should also lead to near term excitement in the stock. Target
of Rs100/share is set at 30% discount to Mar’12 NAV of Rs143/share, implies
9x FY13 earnings, 0.8x Mar’11 book.
20 August 2011
Anant Raj Industries- Good 1Q but debt increase a negative; Buy::BofA Merrill Lynch,
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Anant Raj Industries Ltd
Good 1Q but debt increase a
negative, Reiterate Buy
1Q above expectation; Reiterate Buy
Anant Raj reported1Q earnings at Rs351mn against our estimate of Rs222mn
due to higher recognition of revenue from the New Gurgaon project. We reiterate
our Buy rating on Anant Raj with PO of Rs105 (Rs120 earlier) with 63% potential
upside. The lower PO factors in increase in debt by 25% to Rs13bn expected to
be invested in execution and land purchases. While the delay in Delhi projects
continues to be overhang, we expect the focus to shift to new township project in
Gurgaon due its large size (33% of NAV) and attractive location.
Gurgaon township launch in 3Q key trigger for stock
We expect launch of Gurgaon township spread over ~150acres along Golf course
ext road in 2HFY12 to drive performance in FY12-13. The project accounts for
33% of NAV and over 50% of revenue for FY12-13, even after factoring in 20%
lower prices to account for a possible price correction in Gurgaon. The land parcel
has been notified by the government to be included in Gurgaon master plan.
Improving rentals and peaking debt
Anant Raj launched its mall in Delhi in 2Q with 50% occupancy and expects the
rental income to accrue from 3Q at Rs30mn/month. We expect the mall will lead
to 50% increase in rental income for FY13 to Rs1.5bn. Though leasing in the
Manesar IT Park remains lukewarm with no major incremental leasing. We
expect post the recent debt raising exercise, all its capex/land purchase plans are
well funded and debt is expected to run down from FY13.
Attractive valuation, trading at 45% discount to book
It is trading at deep discount of 45% to its book value which we think is unjustified
given solid balance sheet with low leverage and strong rental income.
Reiterate Buy; PO of Rs105
We reiterate our Buy rating on Anant Raj with PO of Rs105 (earlier PO of Rs120)
at 15% discount to its NAV of Rs123. Anant Raj currently trades at a 49%
discount to NAV. We believe the investment in land in Gurgaon in last 18 months
will reap rich benefits over next couple of years for Anant Raj while steady growth
in lease income will provide further strength to already solid balance sheet. The
stock is currently trading at 45% discount to its FY11 book value which we think is
unjustified given strong balance sheet, low leverage, good rental earnings and
historical land bank in NCR.
Key triggers –
Launch of Gurgaon township– The project accounts for 33% of its NAV
and would be the key driver of revenue and cash flows over next 2-3 years
given the size of the project (6.7mn sq ft) and relatively central location in
Gurgaon (Golf coarse extension road).
Launch of super luxury projects in Delhi – The launch of these projects
have been key overhang in last 12 months given the delays. The
management has applied for approvals of Bhagwandas road project and
expects launch by October 2011, while Hauz Khas project is still uncertain.
We have factored the launches only by FY14 and In case the launch
materializes this year, we see further upside to our estimates.
We have lowered our NAV by 12% to Rs123 due to the increase in debt from
Rs.9.5bn to Rs13bn post recent NCD issue of Rs2.5bn. Management is not
looking to raise any further debt as most of the capex/land purchase plan are well
funded now.
Price objective basis & risk
Anant Raj Industries Ltd (XNRJF)
Our preferred valuation methodology is NAV, calculated by discounting the cash
flows from each of the real estate projects. Our price objective of Rs105 is
therefore based on a 15% discount to our NAV of Rs123. We expect Anant Raj to
trade at a discount of 15% to large developers like DLF on a discount to NAV
basis, because of its smaller size and concentration of land bank. Key
assumptions underlying our NAV are WACC of 15%, capitalization rate of 11%
and inflation of 5% from FY13 on both selling price and construction costs. On a
P/E basis, at our PO of Rs105, the stock would trade at 13x FY12E earnings.
Downside risks are lower than expected volume and delay in revival of demand
for commercial real estate.
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Anant Raj Industries Ltd
Good 1Q but debt increase a
negative, Reiterate Buy
1Q above expectation; Reiterate Buy
Anant Raj reported1Q earnings at Rs351mn against our estimate of Rs222mn
due to higher recognition of revenue from the New Gurgaon project. We reiterate
our Buy rating on Anant Raj with PO of Rs105 (Rs120 earlier) with 63% potential
upside. The lower PO factors in increase in debt by 25% to Rs13bn expected to
be invested in execution and land purchases. While the delay in Delhi projects
continues to be overhang, we expect the focus to shift to new township project in
Gurgaon due its large size (33% of NAV) and attractive location.
Gurgaon township launch in 3Q key trigger for stock
We expect launch of Gurgaon township spread over ~150acres along Golf course
ext road in 2HFY12 to drive performance in FY12-13. The project accounts for
33% of NAV and over 50% of revenue for FY12-13, even after factoring in 20%
lower prices to account for a possible price correction in Gurgaon. The land parcel
has been notified by the government to be included in Gurgaon master plan.
Improving rentals and peaking debt
Anant Raj launched its mall in Delhi in 2Q with 50% occupancy and expects the
rental income to accrue from 3Q at Rs30mn/month. We expect the mall will lead
to 50% increase in rental income for FY13 to Rs1.5bn. Though leasing in the
Manesar IT Park remains lukewarm with no major incremental leasing. We
expect post the recent debt raising exercise, all its capex/land purchase plans are
well funded and debt is expected to run down from FY13.
Attractive valuation, trading at 45% discount to book
It is trading at deep discount of 45% to its book value which we think is unjustified
given solid balance sheet with low leverage and strong rental income.
Reiterate Buy; PO of Rs105
We reiterate our Buy rating on Anant Raj with PO of Rs105 (earlier PO of Rs120)
at 15% discount to its NAV of Rs123. Anant Raj currently trades at a 49%
discount to NAV. We believe the investment in land in Gurgaon in last 18 months
will reap rich benefits over next couple of years for Anant Raj while steady growth
in lease income will provide further strength to already solid balance sheet. The
stock is currently trading at 45% discount to its FY11 book value which we think is
unjustified given strong balance sheet, low leverage, good rental earnings and
historical land bank in NCR.
Key triggers –
Launch of Gurgaon township– The project accounts for 33% of its NAV
and would be the key driver of revenue and cash flows over next 2-3 years
given the size of the project (6.7mn sq ft) and relatively central location in
Gurgaon (Golf coarse extension road).
Launch of super luxury projects in Delhi – The launch of these projects
have been key overhang in last 12 months given the delays. The
management has applied for approvals of Bhagwandas road project and
expects launch by October 2011, while Hauz Khas project is still uncertain.
We have factored the launches only by FY14 and In case the launch
materializes this year, we see further upside to our estimates.
We have lowered our NAV by 12% to Rs123 due to the increase in debt from
Rs.9.5bn to Rs13bn post recent NCD issue of Rs2.5bn. Management is not
looking to raise any further debt as most of the capex/land purchase plan are well
funded now.
Price objective basis & risk
Anant Raj Industries Ltd (XNRJF)
Our preferred valuation methodology is NAV, calculated by discounting the cash
flows from each of the real estate projects. Our price objective of Rs105 is
therefore based on a 15% discount to our NAV of Rs123. We expect Anant Raj to
trade at a discount of 15% to large developers like DLF on a discount to NAV
basis, because of its smaller size and concentration of land bank. Key
assumptions underlying our NAV are WACC of 15%, capitalization rate of 11%
and inflation of 5% from FY13 on both selling price and construction costs. On a
P/E basis, at our PO of Rs105, the stock would trade at 13x FY12E earnings.
Downside risks are lower than expected volume and delay in revival of demand
for commercial real estate.
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BofA Merrill Lynch
24 April 2011
BUY Anant Raj Industries:: Shift in focus: Newly acquired projects to mitigate concern over monetization delay :: Motilal Oswal
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Shift in focus: Newly acquired projects to mitigate concern over
monetization delay
Golf Course Road project to be a key growth driver
With a sharpened focus on launches of recently acquired projects, Anant Raj Industries
(ARIL) is well placed to offset its recent under-performance. Concerns over delays in
monetization of its super-luxury projects are likely to be mitigated by ARIL's strong
cash flow visibility from recently acquired projects. The Golf Course Road project,
acquired in FY11 is expected to contribute 30-50% of sales over FY12-14, and will be the
key medium term value driver. While ARIL's net debt jumped sharply in FY11 to Rs8.8b,
visibility of robust operating cash flow and steady growth in annuity income provides
necessary comfort to address the liquidity risk. We expect ARIL's RoE to improve from
4.9% in FY11 to 6.2% in FY12 and 10.7% in FY13. The stock trades at 0.7x FY12E BV of Rs134.
We believe ARIL's ongoing projects and land bank (at cost) offer a healthy cushion to its
current valuations and incremental cash flow visibility from new projects could be a
strong trigger. We reiterate Buy.
Value accretive land acquisition offers strong growth potential: Over the past
12-18 months ARIL deployed ~Rs8.5b to acquire ~200 acres of land (saleable area
~10msf) in the NCR and we expect the monetization to start over the next 3-6 months.
We believe these land parcels render strong value accretive potential due to their (a)
attractive acquisition cost, (b) superior locations and (c) suitability for large format
development in the mid/high-end segment. Its recently acquired Golf Course Road
project is likely to be a key growth driver and will account for ~24% of its GAV and
about half its sales value over FY12-14.
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Shift in focus: Newly acquired projects to mitigate concern over
monetization delay
Golf Course Road project to be a key growth driver
With a sharpened focus on launches of recently acquired projects, Anant Raj Industries
(ARIL) is well placed to offset its recent under-performance. Concerns over delays in
monetization of its super-luxury projects are likely to be mitigated by ARIL's strong
cash flow visibility from recently acquired projects. The Golf Course Road project,
acquired in FY11 is expected to contribute 30-50% of sales over FY12-14, and will be the
key medium term value driver. While ARIL's net debt jumped sharply in FY11 to Rs8.8b,
visibility of robust operating cash flow and steady growth in annuity income provides
necessary comfort to address the liquidity risk. We expect ARIL's RoE to improve from
4.9% in FY11 to 6.2% in FY12 and 10.7% in FY13. The stock trades at 0.7x FY12E BV of Rs134.
We believe ARIL's ongoing projects and land bank (at cost) offer a healthy cushion to its
current valuations and incremental cash flow visibility from new projects could be a
strong trigger. We reiterate Buy.
Value accretive land acquisition offers strong growth potential: Over the past
12-18 months ARIL deployed ~Rs8.5b to acquire ~200 acres of land (saleable area
~10msf) in the NCR and we expect the monetization to start over the next 3-6 months.
We believe these land parcels render strong value accretive potential due to their (a)
attractive acquisition cost, (b) superior locations and (c) suitability for large format
development in the mid/high-end segment. Its recently acquired Golf Course Road
project is likely to be a key growth driver and will account for ~24% of its GAV and
about half its sales value over FY12-14.
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Motilal oswal
17 February 2011
Anant Raj Industries- The return of the specialist :: Macquarie Research
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Anant Raj Industries
The return of the specialist
Event
Anant Raj (ARCP) is a construction/infrastructure company in northern India
that began operations in 1969. It is focused on a build-and-rent/lease
business model for commercial developments, and its projects are
concentrated in the National Capital Region (NCR). To date, ARIL has
delivered more than 11.5m sqf of developments and currently possesses land
reserves totalling 982 acres (or GFA of 75m sqf).
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Anant Raj Industries
The return of the specialist
Event
Anant Raj (ARCP) is a construction/infrastructure company in northern India
that began operations in 1969. It is focused on a build-and-rent/lease
business model for commercial developments, and its projects are
concentrated in the National Capital Region (NCR). To date, ARIL has
delivered more than 11.5m sqf of developments and currently possesses land
reserves totalling 982 acres (or GFA of 75m sqf).
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Macquarie Research
13 February 2011
Buy Anant Raj Industries – 3QFY2011 Update; Targe Rs. 145 : Angel Broking
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Anant Raj Industries – 3QFY2011 Result Update
Angel Broking maintains a Buy on Anant Raj Industries with a Target Price of Rs. 145.
Anant Raj’s (ARIL) 3QFY2011 results were broadly in line with our expectations.
The top line was driven by mid-income residential projects. PAT stood at `50cr
(up 4.6% qoq). ARIL continues to focus on mid-income residential projects and
intends to launch another 3mn sq. ft. in 4QFY2011. However, we have lowered
our FY2012 estimates by 37% to factor in the delay in the launch of its super
premium residential Hauz Khas project. The promoters have not converted
warrants (20mn) citing that it would have led to dilution of >5%, thereby
triggering an open offer. ARIL’s net debt-equity stands at 0.2x, which is the lowest
amongst peers. We maintain Buy on the stock.
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Angel Broking
08 February 2011
Buy ANANT RAJ INDUSTRIES -Residential sales boost revenues : Edelweiss
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􀂃 Revenues and PAT ahead of our estimates
Anant Raj Industries (Anant Raj) reported revenues of 1,244 mn, ahead of our
estimate of INR 720 mn, mainly on account of higher-than-expected bookings at
its Madelia residential project in Manesar, located in National Capital Region
(NCR). Revenue break-up for the quarter consists of ~INR 930 mn from Manesar
(~40% PoCM) and rental income of INR 198 mn (our estimate: INR 195 mn).
With Anant Raj achieving higher-than expected realisation from Manesar at ~INR
3,300/sf (our expectation of INR 3,000/sf), reported PAT of INR 502 mn was
above our estimate of INR 205 mn.
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􀂃 Revenues and PAT ahead of our estimates
Anant Raj Industries (Anant Raj) reported revenues of 1,244 mn, ahead of our
estimate of INR 720 mn, mainly on account of higher-than-expected bookings at
its Madelia residential project in Manesar, located in National Capital Region
(NCR). Revenue break-up for the quarter consists of ~INR 930 mn from Manesar
(~40% PoCM) and rental income of INR 198 mn (our estimate: INR 195 mn).
With Anant Raj achieving higher-than expected realisation from Manesar at ~INR
3,300/sf (our expectation of INR 3,000/sf), reported PAT of INR 502 mn was
above our estimate of INR 205 mn.
27 January 2011
Anant Raj Industries :CMP: 102 TGT: 116 HORIZON: 1-60 Days: Anand Rathi
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Anant Raj Industries :CMP: 102 TGT: 116 HORIZON: 1-60 Days
Investment Rationale
Anant Raj Industries is one of the real estate development companies in
the national capital region armed with the largest land banks in the region.
It is in the process of building an array of Special Economic Zones (SEZs),
IT Parks, Hotels, Commercial Complexes, Malls, Residential / Service
Apartment and other infrastructure projects.
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Anant Raj Industries :CMP: 102 TGT: 116 HORIZON: 1-60 Days
Investment Rationale
Anant Raj Industries is one of the real estate development companies in
the national capital region armed with the largest land banks in the region.
It is in the process of building an array of Special Economic Zones (SEZs),
IT Parks, Hotels, Commercial Complexes, Malls, Residential / Service
Apartment and other infrastructure projects.
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anand rathi,
anant raj
25 January 2011
Anant Raj -Q3 FY11 earnings growth to be hurt: HSBC Research
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Anant Raj Ind (ARCP IN)
Change in revenue mix in favour of residential segment will hurt
margins and Q3 FY11 earnings growth (-28% y-o-y)
Delay in launch of key residential projects and weak demand for
commercial assets of tier II players will keep valuation low
Retain Underweight (V), reduce TP to INR95 from INR113 to
factor in downcycle valuation
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Anant Raj Ind (ARCP IN)
Change in revenue mix in favour of residential segment will hurt
margins and Q3 FY11 earnings growth (-28% y-o-y)
Delay in launch of key residential projects and weak demand for
commercial assets of tier II players will keep valuation low
Retain Underweight (V), reduce TP to INR95 from INR113 to
factor in downcycle valuation
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HSBC Research
16 November 2010
ANANT RAJ INDUSTRIES-Residential sales boost revenues: Edelweiss
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􀂃 Revenues and PAT ahead of estimates
Anant Raj Industries (Anant Raj) reported revenues of 1,329 mn, ahead of our
estimate of INR 811 mn, mainly on account of a sale of investment of INR 240
mn. Revenue break-up for the quarter (ex-investment sale) consists of ~INR
630 mn from Manesar (35% PoCM) and INR 230 mn from Kapashera residential
projects (65% PoCM in H1FY11) and rental income of INR 187 mn (our estimate
was INR 185 mn). Reported EBITDA margin of 47% was 800bps lower Q-o-Q,
mainly on account of low margins generated from investment sale (INR 40 mn of
EBITDA contribution) and lower margins on Manesar project (~40%).
Anant Raj Industries – 2QFY2011 Result Update Angel Broking
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Anant Raj Industries – 2QFY2011 Result Update
Angel Broking maintains an Buy on Anant Raj Industries with a Target Price of Rs178.
Anant Raj Industries’ (ARIL) 2QFY2011 results were broadly in line with our
expectations. Top-line was driven by mid-income residential projects. PAT came in
at `48cr (up 4.8% qoq and down 32.6% yoy). During 1HFY2011, ARIL acquired
153 acres of land for a consideration of `564cr incurring net debt of `361cr.
Management intends to launch the Huaz Khas project in 4QFY2011, which will
be a key catalyst for the stock performance. We maintain a Buy on the stock.
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Angel Broking
14 November 2010
Anant Raj Industries-2Q FY11 results – in line with expectations:: Daiwa
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Anant Raj Industries (ARCP IN) Rating:1
2Q FY11 results – in line with expectations
What has changed?
Anant Raj Industries’s revenue increased by 28% QoQ to Rs1,329m for 2Q
FY11, but its net profit rose by 4% QoQ to Rs479m due to lower gross margins
and higher staff costs sequentially.
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