Jan 16: Daily Stock Trader’s Guide ::CHUKNOO SECURITIES

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Nifty closed up by 35 points or 0.72 % at 4866. For the week it closed up by 2.4%. Sharply better-than-expected IP
data in November, falling inflation, strengthening Rupee ( US$ has lost 3.3% against Rupee so far in 2012) & good
excise collection may force RBI to reduce interest rates on 24th Jan meeting. US Fed is slated to release its quarterly
economic outlook report on January 25. January series will expire on 25th January too & therefore expiry will be
highly volatile. Our stock lost 17% in last 365 days. Most companies have struggled in 2Q due to high interest rates
hurting spending, while a slump in rupee poses a big burden for companies with large foreign borrowing. India faced
triple hurdle of high debt to GDP, inflationary pressure & a weak currency. Rising raw material & borrowing cost &
limited scope of raising prices would likely to translate into sharp margin contraction across the board in 3Q. It can
cap upside. Our economy which was dragged by feeble growth in west, high interest rates to contain inflation & a
decision-making paralysis, is now showing sign of revival. Volumes in both cash & F&O segment picked up last
week. FII's are net buyers last week & made net purchases of $500 million in first 2 weeks of January. Technically
Nifty is hovering below 100 & 200 SMA’s more or less in sideway mode during last week. Nifty was able to sustain
above 50 SMA, on Friday (now 4851) after hovering below it during last 25 sessions. This is a good sign for bulls.
Market is trading above Fibonacci retracement at 4785, another good omen for the bulls. Nifty reversed from new
low at 4531 on 20th December & is hovering above it. Last week Nifty hit our first up target at 4881 but failed to
move up further. If it failed again this week to close above 4881, fresh weakness can come in for a fall towards 4785,
4758 or 4671. A fall below 4671 will start resumption of the medium-term down trend for 4546 & 4329. Crossing &
closing above 4881 may take bulls to 4959 & 5023. Thereafter 5000 & 5100 will be the next hurdle. The mediumterm
trend decider is the zone between 5200 & 5400. Short-term trend is positive & Nifty can move up to 4881-87-
99, 4939, 4955 or 5000. Resistance is at 4867-69-99, 4900, 4941, 4955 & 5000. Support is available at 4834, 4804,
4785-73-68, 4759-43, 4708, 4695, 4676, 4646, 4625 & 4609-02. The down-move from 5400 recent peak gives us
targets of 4339. First target of the down-move that began from 6338 peak is 4400-4438- 4187. The downgrade of 9
European nations on Friday came after the market hours & its effect is likely to be seen today only. Any sharp fall
will be a buying opportunity. Market is likely to open weak today & likely to take support at 4834-4804.

Daily Stock Traders Guide November 11, 2011 :Chuknoo

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Markets were closed on Thursday. On Wednesday Nifty closed down1.29% at 5221. Banking led decline after
Moody's lowered outlook on banking system, citing slowing growth & concerns about asset quality but banks
are making all the due provisioning required & our banking system is well capitalized as compared to the banks
abroad. SBI fell 6.8%, despite a forecast-beating 2Q profit after a rise in NPA. ICICI, Axis & HDFC Bank fell
between 1.4% & 2.5%. Banking index closed down 2.62%. Lingering concerns over the health of the domestic
economy, widening fiscal deficit & slowing exports dragged the market. India's trade deficit in October is seen
at $19.6 billion, the highest in 4 years & at this rate, for the year 2012 could breach $150 billion. Depreciating
rupee is troubling the current account deficit & because of subsidy burden fiscal deficit is troubling. Auto stocks
were hit, with Maruti falling 4.2%, after sales suffered a fall of 23.8% in Oct on higher interest rates. Auto index
closed down 1.72%. TCS rose 3.7% after it won a $2.2 billion UK order. IOC fell 3.8% after it recorded a net
loss in 2Q. BPCL & HPCL fell more than 5%, after crude rose over $115. TISCO reported a 89% drop in the
2Q's PAT due to rising raw material costs & weak prices in Europe. Investors were cautious due to euro zone
debt crisis, slowing corporate earnings growth & rising fuel prices. Corporate earnings will remain in focus. It
looks that high inflation will dent growth outlook. Nifty is down 16.77% in last 365 days. On 26th October Nifty
closed above key hurdle at 5196 & 5200 & remain so thereafter. But during last 7 session it closed below important
5350 which it conquered on 30th October. Nifty hit a low of 5201 on last Thursday & 5212 on 9th Nov. Its
apparent that market is unable to sustain at higher levels & will take some time to consolidate. Above 5196 Nifty
may try to move up to 5400. Presence of 200 SMA & Fibonacci resistance around 5400 makes it a very strong
hurdle for bulls. If Nifty manages to get past 5400 look for 5431, 5572 & even 5700. Failure to conquer 5400 as
happened this week can take it down to 5196 –5160 support zone which Nifty can attempt today. Subsequent
supports are at 5100, 5065 & 5000. Resistance is at 5223, 5264, 5304, 5311-17, 5326, 5360, 5400 & 5450.
Support is at 5212, 5201– 5160, 5142, 5100, 5070 & 5038. Market is likely to open weak today & further move
in sync with developments pertaining to European debt crisis. Trade with caution & proper stop loss.

Daily Stock Trader’s Guide -March 07, 2011 -CHUKNOO SECURITIES

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The post budget rally took Nifty to intraweek high of 5608 on Friday backed by a small recovery in other
markets, short covering & bargain hunting. But with crude prices on a rise & unrest in Libya, Nifty is
likely to struggle going forward. Technical indicators are on the fuzzy indicating indecision. Market can
move in either direction & its movement over the next few weeks could decide the trend. The most important
factor in favor of our market is that the decline from November has been greater than most
other markets. Nifty has shed 30% of the entire rally from the March 2009 lows. It can, therefore, be
hoped that we could be closer to the bottom than most other foreign markets where a correction have
just started. As the down-move progresses in these markets, FII’s can return back to India. The area
between 5600 & 5654 is a strong resistance zone & traders can book profit here. Since the 200 SMA is
present very nearby, close above it will be a moral booster for the bulls. A convincing close above 5654
may take index to 5760 or 5900. It seems that the fall from last year top at 6338 have paused for a in
between corrective rally before the down-move may start again towards 4970 & 4891. Right now, the
resistance around 5600 will continue to block rallies but a move above this will take Nifty to 5654 &
5760. Supports are at 5466, 5376, 5251, 5177 (recent low) & 5136. A decline below 5136 can take Nifty
towards 4886 & 4786. It will be very difficult for Nifty to decline below Fibonacci Projection of 4786. OI
build-up in the 5400 put suggests support while the build-up at 5600 call points at resistance. Trading
Range 5350– 5700. Markets direction will depend upon intensity of protests expected in Saudi Arabia on
which the crude prices will depend. Market is likely to open weak today. Trade with caution.