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Nifty closed up by 35 points or 0.72 % at 4866. For the week it closed up by 2.4%. Sharply better-than-expected IP
data in November, falling inflation, strengthening Rupee ( US$ has lost 3.3% against Rupee so far in 2012) & good
excise collection may force RBI to reduce interest rates on 24th Jan meeting. US Fed is slated to release its quarterly
economic outlook report on January 25. January series will expire on 25th January too & therefore expiry will be
highly volatile. Our stock lost 17% in last 365 days. Most companies have struggled in 2Q due to high interest rates
hurting spending, while a slump in rupee poses a big burden for companies with large foreign borrowing. India faced
triple hurdle of high debt to GDP, inflationary pressure & a weak currency. Rising raw material & borrowing cost &
limited scope of raising prices would likely to translate into sharp margin contraction across the board in 3Q. It can
cap upside. Our economy which was dragged by feeble growth in west, high interest rates to contain inflation & a
decision-making paralysis, is now showing sign of revival. Volumes in both cash & F&O segment picked up last
week. FII's are net buyers last week & made net purchases of $500 million in first 2 weeks of January. Technically
Nifty is hovering below 100 & 200 SMA’s more or less in sideway mode during last week. Nifty was able to sustain
above 50 SMA, on Friday (now 4851) after hovering below it during last 25 sessions. This is a good sign for bulls.
Market is trading above Fibonacci retracement at 4785, another good omen for the bulls. Nifty reversed from new
low at 4531 on 20th December & is hovering above it. Last week Nifty hit our first up target at 4881 but failed to
move up further. If it failed again this week to close above 4881, fresh weakness can come in for a fall towards 4785,
4758 or 4671. A fall below 4671 will start resumption of the medium-term down trend for 4546 & 4329. Crossing &
closing above 4881 may take bulls to 4959 & 5023. Thereafter 5000 & 5100 will be the next hurdle. The mediumterm
trend decider is the zone between 5200 & 5400. Short-term trend is positive & Nifty can move up to 4881-87-
99, 4939, 4955 or 5000. Resistance is at 4867-69-99, 4900, 4941, 4955 & 5000. Support is available at 4834, 4804,
4785-73-68, 4759-43, 4708, 4695, 4676, 4646, 4625 & 4609-02. The down-move from 5400 recent peak gives us
targets of 4339. First target of the down-move that began from 6338 peak is 4400-4438- 4187. The downgrade of 9
European nations on Friday came after the market hours & its effect is likely to be seen today only. Any sharp fall
will be a buying opportunity. Market is likely to open weak today & likely to take support at 4834-4804.
Standard & Poor's has swept the debt-ridden
European continent with punishing credit downgrades,
stripping France of its coveted AAA
status & dropping Italy even lower. Germany
has retained its top-notch rating, but Portugal's
debt has been consigned to junk. In all, S&P,
which took away the US AAA rating last summer,
lowered the ratings of 9 countries on
Friday, complicating Europe's efforts to find a
way out of a debt crisis that still threatens to
cause worldwide economic harm. Austria also
lost its AAA status, Italy & Spain fell by 2
notches, and S&P also cut ratings on Malta,
Cyprus, Slovakia & Slovenia. Downgrades on
more half of the countries that use the euro
could drive up yields on European government
debt as investors demand more compensation
for holding bonds deemed to be riskier. Higher
borrowing costs would put more financial pressure
on countries already contending with
heavy debt burdens. The policy initiatives taken
by European policymakers in recent weeks
may be insufficient to fully address ongoing
systemic stresses in the euro zone, S&P said.
Stocks fell but declines were not steep as seen
last summer & fall, when debt crisis threw
markets into turmoil. At the close Dow was
down 0.39%. S&P 500 lost 0.49% & Nasdaq
gave up 0.51%. Stocks fell 0.6% in Germany,
0.5% in Britain & 0.1%, but each of those markets
closed before French FM gave first word
of downgrade on TV. Earlier Friday, the euro
hit its lowest in a year & borrowing costs for
European nations rose. Some analysts felt
since there's no new information it will be
quickly forgotten. Still, the cut in the French
credit rating may lead to raise in borrowing
costs for the financial rescue fund. A weaker
France = a weaker bailout fund. France's
downgrade to AA+ lowers it to the level of U.S.
current rating. The yield on France's 10-year
bond rose to 3.1% from 3%. That is still less
than 3.36% on the same bond last week. Germany
pays just 1.76%. & US pays 1.85%.
ASIAN MARKET TODAY: Australia is
down by 1.14%; Nikkei by 1.55% & China
by 0.45%. Hong Kong is down by 0.89%.
SGX NIFTY is trading down by 46 points
at 7.40 IST in Singapore.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Nifty closed up by 35 points or 0.72 % at 4866. For the week it closed up by 2.4%. Sharply better-than-expected IP
data in November, falling inflation, strengthening Rupee ( US$ has lost 3.3% against Rupee so far in 2012) & good
excise collection may force RBI to reduce interest rates on 24th Jan meeting. US Fed is slated to release its quarterly
economic outlook report on January 25. January series will expire on 25th January too & therefore expiry will be
highly volatile. Our stock lost 17% in last 365 days. Most companies have struggled in 2Q due to high interest rates
hurting spending, while a slump in rupee poses a big burden for companies with large foreign borrowing. India faced
triple hurdle of high debt to GDP, inflationary pressure & a weak currency. Rising raw material & borrowing cost &
limited scope of raising prices would likely to translate into sharp margin contraction across the board in 3Q. It can
cap upside. Our economy which was dragged by feeble growth in west, high interest rates to contain inflation & a
decision-making paralysis, is now showing sign of revival. Volumes in both cash & F&O segment picked up last
week. FII's are net buyers last week & made net purchases of $500 million in first 2 weeks of January. Technically
Nifty is hovering below 100 & 200 SMA’s more or less in sideway mode during last week. Nifty was able to sustain
above 50 SMA, on Friday (now 4851) after hovering below it during last 25 sessions. This is a good sign for bulls.
Market is trading above Fibonacci retracement at 4785, another good omen for the bulls. Nifty reversed from new
low at 4531 on 20th December & is hovering above it. Last week Nifty hit our first up target at 4881 but failed to
move up further. If it failed again this week to close above 4881, fresh weakness can come in for a fall towards 4785,
4758 or 4671. A fall below 4671 will start resumption of the medium-term down trend for 4546 & 4329. Crossing &
closing above 4881 may take bulls to 4959 & 5023. Thereafter 5000 & 5100 will be the next hurdle. The mediumterm
trend decider is the zone between 5200 & 5400. Short-term trend is positive & Nifty can move up to 4881-87-
99, 4939, 4955 or 5000. Resistance is at 4867-69-99, 4900, 4941, 4955 & 5000. Support is available at 4834, 4804,
4785-73-68, 4759-43, 4708, 4695, 4676, 4646, 4625 & 4609-02. The down-move from 5400 recent peak gives us
targets of 4339. First target of the down-move that began from 6338 peak is 4400-4438- 4187. The downgrade of 9
European nations on Friday came after the market hours & its effect is likely to be seen today only. Any sharp fall
will be a buying opportunity. Market is likely to open weak today & likely to take support at 4834-4804.
Standard & Poor's has swept the debt-ridden
European continent with punishing credit downgrades,
stripping France of its coveted AAA
status & dropping Italy even lower. Germany
has retained its top-notch rating, but Portugal's
debt has been consigned to junk. In all, S&P,
which took away the US AAA rating last summer,
lowered the ratings of 9 countries on
Friday, complicating Europe's efforts to find a
way out of a debt crisis that still threatens to
cause worldwide economic harm. Austria also
lost its AAA status, Italy & Spain fell by 2
notches, and S&P also cut ratings on Malta,
Cyprus, Slovakia & Slovenia. Downgrades on
more half of the countries that use the euro
could drive up yields on European government
debt as investors demand more compensation
for holding bonds deemed to be riskier. Higher
borrowing costs would put more financial pressure
on countries already contending with
heavy debt burdens. The policy initiatives taken
by European policymakers in recent weeks
may be insufficient to fully address ongoing
systemic stresses in the euro zone, S&P said.
Stocks fell but declines were not steep as seen
last summer & fall, when debt crisis threw
markets into turmoil. At the close Dow was
down 0.39%. S&P 500 lost 0.49% & Nasdaq
gave up 0.51%. Stocks fell 0.6% in Germany,
0.5% in Britain & 0.1%, but each of those markets
closed before French FM gave first word
of downgrade on TV. Earlier Friday, the euro
hit its lowest in a year & borrowing costs for
European nations rose. Some analysts felt
since there's no new information it will be
quickly forgotten. Still, the cut in the French
credit rating may lead to raise in borrowing
costs for the financial rescue fund. A weaker
France = a weaker bailout fund. France's
downgrade to AA+ lowers it to the level of U.S.
current rating. The yield on France's 10-year
bond rose to 3.1% from 3%. That is still less
than 3.36% on the same bond last week. Germany
pays just 1.76%. & US pays 1.85%.
ASIAN MARKET TODAY: Australia is
down by 1.14%; Nikkei by 1.55% & China
by 0.45%. Hong Kong is down by 0.89%.
SGX NIFTY is trading down by 46 points
at 7.40 IST in Singapore.
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