07 March 2011

Daily Stock Trader’s Guide -March 07, 2011 -CHUKNOO SECURITIES

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The post budget rally took Nifty to intraweek high of 5608 on Friday backed by a small recovery in other
markets, short covering & bargain hunting. But with crude prices on a rise & unrest in Libya, Nifty is
likely to struggle going forward. Technical indicators are on the fuzzy indicating indecision. Market can
move in either direction & its movement over the next few weeks could decide the trend. The most important
factor in favor of our market is that the decline from November has been greater than most
other markets. Nifty has shed 30% of the entire rally from the March 2009 lows. It can, therefore, be
hoped that we could be closer to the bottom than most other foreign markets where a correction have
just started. As the down-move progresses in these markets, FII’s can return back to India. The area
between 5600 & 5654 is a strong resistance zone & traders can book profit here. Since the 200 SMA is
present very nearby, close above it will be a moral booster for the bulls. A convincing close above 5654
may take index to 5760 or 5900. It seems that the fall from last year top at 6338 have paused for a in
between corrective rally before the down-move may start again towards 4970 & 4891. Right now, the
resistance around 5600 will continue to block rallies but a move above this will take Nifty to 5654 &
5760. Supports are at 5466, 5376, 5251, 5177 (recent low) & 5136. A decline below 5136 can take Nifty
towards 4886 & 4786. It will be very difficult for Nifty to decline below Fibonacci Projection of 4786. OI
build-up in the 5400 put suggests support while the build-up at 5600 call points at resistance. Trading
Range 5350– 5700. Markets direction will depend upon intensity of protests expected in Saudi Arabia on
which the crude prices will depend. Market is likely to open weak today. Trade with caution.
India was amongst the top 10 manufacturers
in 2010 & together with Brazil
& China accounted for a 1/3 of the
world manufacturing output, up from
1/5th 10 years ago, said a UN report.
"India is listed as one of the top 10
manufacturers of the world in 2010,"
the international yearbook of industrial
statistics 2011, published by the
United Nations Industrial Development
Organisation (UNIDO) said. India
along with other leading developing
economies such as Brazil & China
showed strong performance in economic
growth in 2010 and the manufacturing
value added of all these
countries grew by over 10% last year,
the agency said. The share of these
three countries in world manufacturing
output reached 32% compared to 20%
10 years ago, the report, released in
Vienna on Thursday, added. World
manufacturing value added, or MVA,
rose 5.3% in 2010, as per the
agency's estimate. The MVA of industrialised
countries was up 3.4% in
2010. India topped developing countries
(excluding China) in production of
textiles, chemical products, basic metals,
general machinery and equipment,
and electrical machinery. It
overtook Brazil in the production of
motor vehicles and now ranks second
among developing countries after
Mexico. However, its Asian competitors
Thailand, Malaysia & the Philippines
are ahead in the production of
electronic goods like computers, radio,
TV & other communication equipment

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