Please Share:: 
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Media
India
Demystifying IRS Q4 2010: Gains across coverage universe. Our analysis of IRS (Indian
Readership Survey) Q4 2010 reveals (1) strong growth in readership of Hindi dailies and
modest increase in English dailies, (2) continued gains for Hindustan Times (HT Media’s
English daily) in Mumbai, (3) strong gains for Hindustan (HT’s Hindi daily) across key markets
and (4) robust gains for DBCL and steady JAGP performance. Reiterated positive view on
Hindi print stocks given (1) rising readership and (2) consolidation potential; upgrade HMVL
to BUY (TP: Rs200) post recent under-performance due to weak 3QFY11.
Strong gains for HTML/HMVL across English (Mumbai) and Hindi markets
The average issue readership (AIR) of English dailies increased 2% yoy (Q4 2010 over R2 2009) to
reach 17.4 mn (see Exhibit 1). HTML’s flagship English daily, Hindustan Times (HT), continued to
consolidate its runner-up position in Mumbai to move further ahead of DNA (see Exhibit 2).
However, HT remains far behind Times of India (TOI) in Mumbai and thus, advertising market share
gains are likely to be back-ended; its ability to monetize the hard-fought runner-up position in a
market dominated by TOI is the key challenge as well as opportunity, in our view. HT retained its
leadership position in Delhi; however, given the modest gap (<2%) between HT and TOI, it would
be fair to say that they remain joint leaders in Delhi.
The AIR of Hindi dailies increased 9% yoy and 3% ror to reach 62.7 mn (see Exhibit 3) reflecting
the relatively robust print environment in Hindi markets. Including its Gujarati daily Divya Bhaskar,
DBCL led the regional market readership at 17.7 mn versus JAGP’s 16.8 mn (including I-Next).
However, Hindustan (HTML/HMVL’s flagship Hindi daily) was the primary gainer with strong 24%
yoy and 6% qoq increase in its AIR to reach 11.5 mn with market share gains in BJH as well as
UPU (see Exhibit 2). Hindustan is under-monetized with significant advertising potential from fastgrowing
BJH as well as UPU markets, in our view.
Robust performance by DBCL with market share gains in home MPCG market
DBCL’s flagship Hindi daily, Dainik Bhaskar (DB), saw a strong 9% yoy increase in its AIR to reach
14.0 mn (17.7 mn including Divya Bhaskar; see Exhibit 3); Dainik Bhaskar led the field in
MPCG(Madhya Pradesh-Chhattisgarh) with robust 5% ror growth despite rising competition (see
Exhibit 4) as well as gains in Punjab and Rajasthan. MPCG is the home market for DBCL, where it
faces competition from Nai Dunia and Patrika of the Rajasthan Patrika group (15% ror growth in
readership at 1.08 mn). It has preemptively launched hyper-local editions in MPCG to protect its
market share (readership and advertising) and raise entry barriers for competition; further, DBCL’s
plans to launch new editions in Gujarat to strengthen its position in a strategically important
market, where it lost modest readership in IRS Q4 2010.
Steady performance by JAGP in UPU market but needs to improve in other markets
JAGP’s flagship Hindi daily, Dainik Jagran (DJ), saw modest 1% yoy growth in its AIR to reach 16.1
mn (16.8 mn including I-Next; see Exhibit 3). We concede that DJ has been behind the curve in reinvesting
in core markets post robust recovery in advertising revenue environment; however, JAGP
highlighted renewed investment in core markets in 3QFY11 (11% yoy circulation growth). DJ’s
steady performance in core UPU market is positive (see Exhibit 5); additionally, JAGP continues to
report gains in key urban centers (see Exhibit 6) of UPU where competition from Hindustan as well
as Amar Ujala (AU) had been quite intense. The ad-per-reader gap versus peers (see Exhibit 7)
ensures steady advertising growth from existing reader base even as the impact of increased
circulation will become visible within 12-18 months.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Media
India
Demystifying IRS Q4 2010: Gains across coverage universe. Our analysis of IRS (Indian
Readership Survey) Q4 2010 reveals (1) strong growth in readership of Hindi dailies and
modest increase in English dailies, (2) continued gains for Hindustan Times (HT Media’s
English daily) in Mumbai, (3) strong gains for Hindustan (HT’s Hindi daily) across key markets
and (4) robust gains for DBCL and steady JAGP performance. Reiterated positive view on
Hindi print stocks given (1) rising readership and (2) consolidation potential; upgrade HMVL
to BUY (TP: Rs200) post recent under-performance due to weak 3QFY11.
Strong gains for HTML/HMVL across English (Mumbai) and Hindi markets
The average issue readership (AIR) of English dailies increased 2% yoy (Q4 2010 over R2 2009) to
reach 17.4 mn (see Exhibit 1). HTML’s flagship English daily, Hindustan Times (HT), continued to
consolidate its runner-up position in Mumbai to move further ahead of DNA (see Exhibit 2).
However, HT remains far behind Times of India (TOI) in Mumbai and thus, advertising market share
gains are likely to be back-ended; its ability to monetize the hard-fought runner-up position in a
market dominated by TOI is the key challenge as well as opportunity, in our view. HT retained its
leadership position in Delhi; however, given the modest gap (<2%) between HT and TOI, it would
be fair to say that they remain joint leaders in Delhi.
The AIR of Hindi dailies increased 9% yoy and 3% ror to reach 62.7 mn (see Exhibit 3) reflecting
the relatively robust print environment in Hindi markets. Including its Gujarati daily Divya Bhaskar,
DBCL led the regional market readership at 17.7 mn versus JAGP’s 16.8 mn (including I-Next).
However, Hindustan (HTML/HMVL’s flagship Hindi daily) was the primary gainer with strong 24%
yoy and 6% qoq increase in its AIR to reach 11.5 mn with market share gains in BJH as well as
UPU (see Exhibit 2). Hindustan is under-monetized with significant advertising potential from fastgrowing
BJH as well as UPU markets, in our view.
Robust performance by DBCL with market share gains in home MPCG market
DBCL’s flagship Hindi daily, Dainik Bhaskar (DB), saw a strong 9% yoy increase in its AIR to reach
14.0 mn (17.7 mn including Divya Bhaskar; see Exhibit 3); Dainik Bhaskar led the field in
MPCG(Madhya Pradesh-Chhattisgarh) with robust 5% ror growth despite rising competition (see
Exhibit 4) as well as gains in Punjab and Rajasthan. MPCG is the home market for DBCL, where it
faces competition from Nai Dunia and Patrika of the Rajasthan Patrika group (15% ror growth in
readership at 1.08 mn). It has preemptively launched hyper-local editions in MPCG to protect its
market share (readership and advertising) and raise entry barriers for competition; further, DBCL’s
plans to launch new editions in Gujarat to strengthen its position in a strategically important
market, where it lost modest readership in IRS Q4 2010.
Steady performance by JAGP in UPU market but needs to improve in other markets
JAGP’s flagship Hindi daily, Dainik Jagran (DJ), saw modest 1% yoy growth in its AIR to reach 16.1
mn (16.8 mn including I-Next; see Exhibit 3). We concede that DJ has been behind the curve in reinvesting
in core markets post robust recovery in advertising revenue environment; however, JAGP
highlighted renewed investment in core markets in 3QFY11 (11% yoy circulation growth). DJ’s
steady performance in core UPU market is positive (see Exhibit 5); additionally, JAGP continues to
report gains in key urban centers (see Exhibit 6) of UPU where competition from Hindustan as well
as Amar Ujala (AU) had been quite intense. The ad-per-reader gap versus peers (see Exhibit 7)
ensures steady advertising growth from existing reader base even as the impact of increased
circulation will become visible within 12-18 months.
No comments:
Post a Comment