Showing posts with label Media. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Media. Show all posts

03 May 2015

Media - New Ratings Regime: ZEE Misses A Step; Sector Update::Edelweiss

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09 January 2015

Media ƒ Broadcaster advertisement revenue to grow at a slower pace…ƒ :Q3FY15 Result Preview : ICICI Securities, report

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07 January 2015

Media - Lukewarm Sales Growth; Result Preview Q3FY15 :: Edelweiss, link

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25 December 2014

Media - Sector Update - Declining newsprint prices to benefit industry :: Centrum

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17 December 2014

Media - Sector Update - Declining newsprint prices to benefit industry :Centrum

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25 November 2014

Media - Better Days Ahead; Result Review Q2FY15:: Edelweiss

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Media: RIO - Can it be a Game Changer for ARPU?; Sector Update:: Edelweiss

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30 October 2014

Media - Indian Super League: Will it hit the Goal Post?; :: Edelweiss PDF link

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08 October 2014

Media - Sluggish Quarter: Laying Growth Foundation; Result Preview Q2FY15 :: Edelweiss, PDF link

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In Q2FY15, we expect Edelweiss Media universe’s revenue to grow 7.2% YoY (8.9% YoY in Q1FY15), though EBITDA is likely to decline 4.2% YoY (flattish in Q1FY15). Ad growth for the TV industry in Q2FY15 likely grew at 10-11% YoY (as per our channel checks) and slipped 200-300bps vis-à-vis Q1FY15 due to absence of election-related ad spends. Ad growth for ZEE and Sun TV (Sun TV is likely to see close to double digit growth after 5 quarters) is expected to be better than most of the listed print peers like Jagran Prakashan, which continue to clock single digit growth. Cable subscription revenue growth for broadcasters and MSOs is expected to be subdued. Set-top box activations for MSOs are expected to be slow due to extension of Phase 3 and 4 deadlines. EBITDA growth of Sun TV and Dish TV is expected to be higher than the sector average.            
Q2FY15 result expectations for the sector
We expect 13% YoY ad growth for ZEE on a base of 10.5% YoY. Low ratings in non-fiction content in Q1FY15 could hamper ZEE’s ad growth in Q2FY15 (lag effect). We expect it to report INR200-250mn sports loss during the quarter. Sun TV's ad growth is expected to recover to ~10% YoY due to low base (4.3% YoY decline). While Dish TV’s ARPU is expected to be ~INR171-172, gross subscriber additions are expected to be 0.6mn (similar to Q1FY15). With extension in deadlines for Phases 3 and 4, focus of MSOs has shifted to expansion of broadband. Like-to-like footfall growth was muted for PVR in Q2FY15 as there were no hit movies in September. Box-office collections were decent in July and August due to movies like Kick and Singham-2.
Key highlights of the sector during the quarter
The Ministry has postponed the Phase 3 digitisation deadline by a year to December 31, 2015, and that for Phase 4 by 2 years to December 31, 2016. GroupM has revised upwards India’s overall CY14 ad growth forecast by 90bps to 12.5% YoY. DEN has signed a 50:50 JV with Snapdeal to start a home shopping TV channel at an investment of USD1mn each. DEN’s CEO Mr. S N Sharma, who was one of the founding members of DEN, has recently quit the company for personal reasons.



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09 July 2014

Media - Sector Update - Ad growth under pressure : Centrum

Ad growth under pressure



We expect Q1FY15 results to be subdued for media companies with
advertisement growth in single digits. Election benefits will not flow
in for print companies but economic slowdown could impact
broadcasters. Subscription and circulation revenues are also expected
to moderate during the quarter. However, we expect gross addition to
be healthy for Dish TV and predict healthy revenue growth for internet
players. Operating margins for our coverage universe will be under
pressure on the back of lower topline growth.

$ Ad revenue to be under pressure: Subdued macro environment coupled
with high base will impact ad growth in the quarter. Benefit from
elections led advertisements will be offset by the blackout of
Government advertisement due to the election code of conduct for print
& radio companies. Jagran, DB Corp and HT Media are expected to post
~8-9% ad growth in the quarter with English print continuing to be
under pressure. High base will impact Sun TV and hence we have
modelled merely 1% growth, while ZEEL could post 14% ad growth. ENIL
may report 9% YoY ad growth on the back of high inventory utilisation
and inability to improve yields.

$ Circulation & subscription revenue growth to moderate: Circulation
revenue growth for print players will moderate with DB Corp and HT
Media each growing at ~10-11% and Jagran by 4% on the back of marginal
price hikes during the year. The impact of cuts in cover price in
Bihar market will be felt by both HT Media and Jagran. On the back of
high base, benefits of digitization in Phase-I/II in the system and
closure of MediaPro JV, ZEEL is expected to report ~9% growth in
domestic subscription revenues while Sun TV is likely to grow analog
subscription revenues by 27% and DTH by 17% YoY. Dish TV’s gross
subscriber addition is expected to be at 0.5mn while ARPU remains flat
sequentially at Rs170.

$ Operating margins to be under pressure: With revenues under
pressure, operating margins are expected to compress by 148bps YoY for
our coverage companies. Broadcasters like Sun TV and ZEEL’s OPM will
compress due to lower ad growth and high programming cost. However, DB
Corp’s margins are set to decline by 267bps due to high RM cost and
impact of Bihar launch. Jagran will post flat margins while HT Media’s
margin will expend by 67bps with traction in Hindi business. High A&P
expenses will impact Just Dial while strong operating leverage will
help Info Edge expand margins by 255bps. Hence, operating profit for
our coverage universe is set to grow by mere 5.2% YoY and PAT by 4.3%
YoY.

$ Recommendation & key risks: We continue to prefer Jagran Prakashan
among print companies and maintain our recommendation to switch to Sun
TV from ZEEL as we believe margins for ZEEL would be under pressure on
new channel launches while Sun TV will benefit significantly from
digitization. Among internet companies we suggest a switch from Just
Dial to Info Edge as we believe the transaction driven business model
of Just Dial will need significant investment. We maintain Buy rating
on Jagran Prakashan, DB Corp, Sun TV Network, HT Media, Info Edge,
Dish TV but Hold on ENIL, ZEEL and Just Dial. Key risks to our call
will be 1) Continuing economic slowdown, and 2) Delay in digitization.



Thanks & Regards

--

06 January 2014

Media - Q3FY14 Results Preview - Print set to surge as TRAI rule slows broadcasters: Centrum

Print set to surge as TRAI rule slows broadcasters



We expect Q3FY14 results to be divergent, with print companies set to
post healthy ad revenue growth and margin expansion, while
broadcasters should get impacted by TRAI (10+2) rule and high sports
losses (for ZEEL) coupled with margin compression. Digitization
benefit will accrue to broadcasting players with Dish TV’s subscriber
addition remaining high on festive season demand. Among
non-broadcasters, margins are expected to expand with internet
companies demonstrating strong operating leverage. We expect positive
surprise from Jagran Prakashan, Dish TV and ENIL but negative surprise
from ZEEL and Sun TV Network.

$ Festive season and elections to benefit ad growth: Advertisement
growth for the industry could remain strong on the back of festive
season demand and state elections while the full impact of TRAI’s
(10+2) inventory cap will be felt during the quarter. Print companies
will benefit from elections boosting ad growth with Jagran and HT
Media expected to post 11.7% and 7% YoY ad growth respectively. Sun TV
will get impacted by the TRAI rule and hence we have modelled a 4%
decline while ZEEL may post 7% ad growth (ex-sports). ENIL may report
an 11% YoY ad growth on the back of inventory utilisation.

$ Digitization benefits to continue: ZEEL is expected to post a growth
of 13% YoY in domestic subscription revenues while Sun TV is likely to
grow analog subscription revenues by 35% and DTH by 17.5% YoY. Dish
TV’s gross subscriber addition is expected to be healthy at 0.75mn
while ARPU will remain at Rs166. Circulation revenue growth for print
players will be healthy with Jagran and HT Media growing at 11.7% and
9.7% respectively on the back of increase in circulation and price
hikes. The impact of the cut in cover price in Bihar market will be
felt during the quarter for both print players.

$ Operating margins to compress: Margins are expected to compress by
151bps YoY for our coverage companies. Broadcasters like Sun TV and
ZEEL’s OPM will compress on the back of lower advertisement growth
(for Sun TV) and high sports losses (for ZEEL). However, Jagran and HT
Media’s margins are set to expand by 102bps and 18bps respectively.
Internet companies will also post margin expansion on the back of
operating leverage. Hence, operating profit for our coverage universe
is set to grow by 6.3% YoY and PAT by 9.9% YoY.

$ Recommendation & key risks: We have increased our target price for
Just Dial (Hold) while downgrading Dish TV to Hold on the back of a
steep rally in the stock price in the past three months. We maintain
Buy rating on Jagran Prakashan, Sun TV Network and HT Media but Hold
on Dish TV, ENIL, Info Edge, ZEEL and Just Dial. Key risks to our call
will be 1) Delay in digitization, and 2) the TRAI (10+2) rule.



Thanks & Regards.

--

25 September 2012

Media - HITS: Will DTH/MSOs be impacted?; sector update:: Edelweiss PDF link

With digitisation being the most awaited development in the media space, we dwell on a neglected TV distribution platform - HITS. Recently, Jain TV Group’s Noida Software Technology Park (NSTPL) announced the launch of its Head-end in the Sky service (HITS), JainHITS. It will provide subscribers with an alternative to digital cable and DTH technology for digital TV viewing. NSTPL has launched HITS service in collaboration with Motorola, Intelsat and KIT Digital. ZEE group’s HITS foray in 2008 came to a grinding halt in 2010 due to lack of regulation and industry support. While on paper, HITS looks like a formidable challenge to DTH & digital cable, it has had a checkered history and hence will have to clear many hurdles to succeed. We believe that the success of JainHITS hinges on effective implementation over a sustained period of 3-4 years besides a favourable regulatory environment. Hence, we do not see any immediate impact of HITS on MSOs/DTH players.

24 September 2012

FDI cap raise to generate interest in Cable & Satellite Industry… :: ICICI Securities


FDI cap raise to generate interest in sector…
Foreign funds to flow in!!!
The government has increased the FDI limit in the broadcasting carriage
services including MSOs and DTH companies to 74% from 49%. Total
49% of the revised FDI cap would be through the automatic route while
beyond that FIPB approval would be required. Also, while calculating
FDI, FIIs, FCCBs, ADRs, GDRs and stocks held by NRIs would also be
included. This move is positive for the industry as previously foreign
companies would have to take FIPB approval for investing above 10% in
a company. However, now through the automatic route a foreign
company could invest up to 49%. Also, now a foreign player could have
a controlling stake in a distributor, which makes the industry more
attractive. It is difficult to predict right now as to what amount of funds
could flow into the distribution industry and the timeline of it. The
sentiment, however, remains positive for the sector

14 July 2012

Media - Q1FY13 Preview - Centrum



Q1FY13 Results Preview
Media
Slowdown in ads continues
We expect Q1FY13 results to be subdued on the back of weak advertising environment coupled with economic slowdown. Ad revenue growth is expected to be in 0% – 7% range. Margins are expected to shrink on the back of high cost which would impact profitability. We expect a positive surprise from ZEEL on the back of strong rating improvement, Balaji Telefilms on the back of cost rationalisation and Jagran Prakashan while expecting  a negative surprise from HT Media and Sun TV Network.


27 June 2012

Print Media Sector Update: ICICI Securities, PDF link

Cable & Satellite Industry: Sector Update- ICICI Securities, PDF link

Sector Update -Cable & Satellite Industry:


C o u n t d o w n   t o   s u n s e t  d a t e   f o r   P h a s e   I …
As the digitisation deadline of June 30, 2012 for Phase I approaches,
differences exist among the various parties involved in extending or
persisting with the same deadline. While the broadcasters have been
lobbying the government to stick to the existing deadline, some of the
MSOs (barring the large ones like Hathway Cable and Den Networks)
and LCOs have asked for an extension of two or three months as they
are finding it hard to seed set top boxes in all their households due to
late announcement of the revenue share model by Trai, unavailability
of set top boxes and lack of consumer awareness. MSO’s problems
could be a blessing for DTH operators who are gearing up to speed up
their subscriber addition. However, Hathway is best placed among
MSOs, having already seeded 40%  or ~1 million of its ~2.3 million
subscribers in the metros and having an inventory of ~ 0.7 million
STBs. Nonetheless, we expect at least a three month delay in
implementation of digitisation even if the deadline is not extended.
The final call will be taken by the ministry of Information &
Broadcasting on June 25, 2012.


23 June 2012

MEDIA Speed bump: Edelweiss



Finally, acknowledging that on-ground progress of digitization has been
slow and the Phase 1 deadline cannot be met, GoI has extended June 30
deadline by another four months. Requests of a six-month extension by
various stakeholders, including state governments, smaller MSOs and
LCOs, have compelled it to extend the deadline. This is in line with our
expectations (we had projected 3-6 months delay in our report, ‘Padding
up for the digital revolution’, dated June 14, 2012). We do not expect this
development to materially impact the overall scheme of things and
consider it a minor hiccup. In fact, a silver lining we see is that, the govt
will monitor the progress closely and will take strict action for any delay.
In the near term, however, companies like Hathway who are well
prepared will have to bear additional financing costs of boxes for the
incremental period.