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4QFY11 iron ore contract prices up 6.3% QoQ, Indian HRC prices improve
Rio Tinto recently agreed to a 6.3% QoQ hike in iron ore price contracts with
Chinese mills for 4QFY11, in line with our expectations, highlighted last week.
China’s iron ore imports rebounded to 57.4mt (up 12% YoY) in November,
reaching their highest level since March 2010, which supported spot iron ore
prices. Iron ore prices on the spot market are firm at US$170/dmt for 63%
iron grade.
Indian HRC prices rebounded from their recent lows on account of a pick-up
in demand and due to a supply correction caused by a continued shut down
at Ispat Industries. Our interaction with industry officials indicates expectations
of gradual improvement in steel markets. With buoyant end-user demand in
India, steel producers are pushing for higher prices.
Scarp prices also surged globally in the past week, due to higher demand
from southeast Asia and the EU. This is expected to push steel prices higher
as producers will try to maintain margins.
Tata Steel recently received environmental clearance from the ministry of
environment and forests to expand capacity at the Katamati iron ore mine
from 2mtpa to 8mtpa. We are positive about Tata Steel India but expect
EBITDA to come under pressure at Tata Steel Europe in 3QFY11.
JSW Steel, Sterlite Industries, Tata Sponge and Prakash Industries trade at
attractive valuations