18 December 2010

IPO: A2Z & Ravi Kumar Distilleries: Final Price Announced

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IPO: A2Z & Ravi Kumar Distilleries: Final Price Announced

A2Z at lower band: Rs 400 (band was Rs 400-410)
Retail - Everyone got ALL shares applied for.

Current GMP: Discount

Ravi Kumar Distilleries at upper band: Rs 64 (band was Rs 56-64)

Retail - Got 64% of shares applied for 

If you applied for : 
 Rs 2 Lacs (Rs 1,98,400) :: 31 Lots; 3100 shares -:: you got  1,987 shares at Rs 1,27,168


Rs 1 lac (Rs 96,000) : 15 Lots; 1500 shares -you got  957 shares at Rs 61,248


Current GMP: Rs 8 


When Out the allotment details will be available here:



Details should be available in drop down menu (next to Company)





Havells India: BUY -target price of Rs.450:: Kotak Securities

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Havells India Ltd (HIL)
PRICE : RS.372
RECOMMENDATION : BUY
TARGET PRICE : RS.450
FY12E: P/E: 12.8X

Havells India Ltd (HIL) is one of the prominent electrical and power distribution
equipment manufacturing companies in India. Its products range
from Industrial & Domestic Circuit Protection Switchgear, Cables & Wires
to fans, CFL Lamps and luminaries for domestic & industrial applications.
The company enjoys healthy market share across all product offerings
translating into domestic business operating margins of 12%. With its
strong global distribution network in more than 50 countries, competent
manufacturing capability and successful restructuring of overseas subsidiary
Sylvania, company is well poised for 35% CAGR growth in operating
profits between FY10-12E.

MindTree: Good news, bad news: Kotak Sec

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Good news – product (3G handset) investment write-off is
likely to be lower at US$5-7 mn versus earlier indicated US$12-14 mn. Bad news –
revenue momentum continues to be weaker than the Tier-I players with R&D business
still a drag on overall growth. Even as the management remains confident of margin
revival to 18-20% levels for FY2012E, we see the same challenging if revenue growth
lags peers. We reiterate our REDUCE rating on the stock with a TP of Rs450/share

Lanco Infratech: Plugging the missing piece : Kotak Sec

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Lanco Infratech (LITL) has concluded a binding agreement
for acquiring the assets of Griffin Coal thereby enhancing its fuel security in the face of
increasing uncertainties on the availability and pricing of coal. We believe that the
acquisition—assuming reasonable valuations—will plug the missing piece in LITL’s
portfolio of projects versus peers and partially reduce dependence on Coal India Ltd.
We maintain our BUY rating and target price of Rs80/share.

Tata Steel: Plenty of steam left:: Kotak Securities

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. We expect strong performance of Tata Steel stock to continue
despite a 6.5% rise in the past month and 8.5% outperformance relative to the BSE
Sensex. Catalysts for stock performance include a cost-push-based increase in steel
prices, increasing visibility on timely commissioning of India capacity expansion and
event-based catalyst on overseas raw material projects. Tata Steel trades at an
inexpensive 5.2X FY2012E adjusted EBITDA. BUY with an end-FY2012E TP of Rs725.

IPO Grey Market Premium: Punjab Sind Bank, A2Z, Claris, Ravi Kumar: Dec 18, 2010

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Company Name
Offer Price
Premium
Listing Date
(Rs.)
(Rs.)
Claris Life
228
Discount
20-Dec
(lower band)

Ravi Kumar Distilleries
64
(upper band)
 6
27-Dec
A2Z Maintenance
400 
(lower band)
 Discount
27-Dec
Punjab & Sind Bank
113 to 120
 40 to 42
3-Jan
(+ 5% retail discount)


HSBC: Indian IT Services -Positive read-across for Indian IT from Accenture results

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Indian IT Services
Positive read-across for Indian IT from Accenture results 
Strong consulting bookings and pipeline suggest higher
client confidence; Accenture raises full-year guidance in 1Q
We expect discretionary spending to accelerate in 2011 as
clients invest in growth and not just cost rationalisation
Positive for Indian IT sector: Expect strong earnings growth
in FY12 led by robust volume growth and stable margins

JP Morgan: IDFC- Stake sale in AMC at rich valuations

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IDFC 
Underweight
IDFC.BO, IDFC IN
Stake sale in AMC at rich valuations 


• Stake Sale in AMC: IDFC has agreed to sell 25% stake in IDFC AMC
to Natixis, a french asset management company. Media reports
(Economic times) indicate a transaction amount of Rs2.75bn for a 25%
stake valuing IDFC AMC at ~5.5% of AUMs.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch: Hero Honda :Upgrade to Buy

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Hero Honda 
   
Royalty, technology issues 
addressed; Upgrade to Buy 
„Royalty rates largely unchanged; PO raised to Rs 2,088
Honda’s exit from JV has allayed investor concerns over a possible hike in royalty
rates. Following the 16% stock underperformance this fiscal year, we upgrade our
rating to Buy and raise PO to Rs 2,088 (from Rs 1,965) driven by, (1) slight increase
to EPS forecasts over FY12-13E, and (2) expected re-rating of core multiple to 15x
FY12E P/E (earlier 14x), as worries over financial impact is unfounded.

Credit Suisse: RIL-OUTPERFORM- Continues to price in low return expectations

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● EPS (and return) estimates for RIL have steadily been falling over
the last 20 months, on margins and gas volume estimates.
● On CS HOLT®, RIL implies cost of capital returns if real assets
grow 8% (half of 20-year median, some of which will happen just
through cash accumulation). Conversely, with 0% asset growth,
return expectations (6.5%) are below 20-year median of 7.5%.
● Falling gas production has been an overarching concern recently,
but the decline should reverse with time. There are few signs yet
of any material downgrade to reserves / peak production at D6.
● Meanwhile, potential refining / petchem margin strength can help
improve returns. Global oil demand has surprised positively and
should outstrip refining capacity growth in 2011. Effective ethylene
utilisation rates are up on demand / shut downs, helping margins.
● Clarity on gas production outlook can then be a significant catalyst
for the stock, correcting the low / falling return expectation. While
difficult to time, the importance of gas to India and RIL means the
ambiguity should not sustain for very long. Maintain
OUTPERFORM.

Angel Broking: Print Media- IRS 3Q2010 Analysis

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Key Takeaways
􀂄 Top-10 order remains unchanged: The top-10 order in print media remained
unchanged. Dainik Jagran is maintaining its lead amongst the print dailies
albeit on flattish growth rate, Hindustan is closing in the leadership gap at
No.3 position, and Dainik Bhaskar is growing smartly at 7% ror. With the
exception of Daily Thanthi, all other dailies registered growth during the
quarter under review.

Motilal Oswal: Banks: Analyzing the impact of rise in interest rates on margins

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Analyzing the impact of rise in interest rates on margins – Re-iterate positive view on the sector
 Margin pressures have increased due to: (a) tight liquidity conditions, and (b) unexpected move by SBI to increase retail term deposit rates by 50-150bp.

While we believe that 2QFY11 margins are at peak, we rule out a sharp fall in margins. Banks with high CASA deposits will experience lower pressure on margins.

G-Sec yields have hardened across maturities, leading to fear of higher MTM provisions. At 8.1% 10-year G-Sec yield, MTM impact on FY11E PBT is just 2-3%. 

The liquidity situation is likely to ease in 4QFY11, with the impact RBI's OMO, improvement in real interest rates, and increased government spending.

Given the sharp rise in borrowing cost (wholesale and retail), maximum interest rate increase is expected to be 50bp from hereon. As banks have increased PLR, the liquidity situation is expected to improve; concerns over sharp compression in margins are overstated in our view. Our top picks are ICICI Bank, SBI and Yes Bank. Risk to our call: continued tightness in liquidity in 4QFY11, leading to elevated G-Sec yields and higher cost of funds. 

Motilal Oswal: Shriram Transport Finance -Well placed to sustain operating parameters

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Shriram Transport Finance (SHTF IN; Mkt Cap USD3.6b, CMP Rs721, Buy)

Well placed to sustain operating parameters

-     STF being a wholesale funded company could face pressure on its margins in the backdrop of tightening liquidity scenario.

-     To mitigate the interest rate risk (STF’s entire truck loan portfolio carries a fixed rate), STF has reduced the proportion of floating rate borrowings to ~25-26%.

-     Robust scenario for new CV sales over FY10-12E and strong CV sales during FY04-FY07 leading to better prospects for used CV sales would drive business.

-     With positive outlook for both verticals and strategic presence in CV finance market, management expects to grow AUM at 20-25% CAGR over next 2 years.

-     With healthy balance sheet, sound track record and uptrend in economic activity, concerns about asset quality have abated.

Catering to the second-hand commercial vehicle financing segment, marked by limited competition, STF delivered high RoEs of 27%-28% and a high disbursement CAGR of ~38% over FY06-10. We expect 29% earnings CAGR over FY10-FY13E and an average RoA of 3.3% (on AUM) and average RoE of 28%. Maintain Buy with target price of Rs960 (3.5x FY12 BV and 14x implied PE).

Motilal Oswal: 4QFY11 iron ore contract prices up 6.3% QoQ, Indian HRC prices improve

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4QFY11 iron ore contract prices up 6.3% QoQ, Indian HRC prices improve

 Rio Tinto recently agreed to a 6.3% QoQ hike in iron ore price contracts with
Chinese mills for 4QFY11, in line with our expectations, highlighted last week.
 China’s iron ore imports rebounded to 57.4mt (up 12% YoY) in November,
reaching their highest level since March 2010, which supported spot iron ore
prices. Iron ore prices on the spot market are firm at US$170/dmt for 63%
iron grade.
 Indian HRC prices rebounded from their recent lows on account of a pick-up
in demand and due to a supply correction caused by a continued shut down
at Ispat Industries. Our interaction with industry officials indicates expectations
of gradual improvement in steel markets. With buoyant end-user demand in
India, steel producers are pushing for higher prices.
 Scarp prices also surged globally in the past week, due to higher demand
from southeast Asia and the EU. This is expected to push steel prices higher
as producers will try to maintain margins.
 Tata Steel recently received environmental clearance from the ministry of
environment and forests to expand capacity at the Katamati iron ore mine
from 2mtpa to 8mtpa. We are positive about Tata Steel India but expect
EBITDA to come under pressure at Tata Steel Europe in 3QFY11.
 JSW Steel, Sterlite Industries, Tata Sponge and Prakash Industries trade at
attractive valuations

GSFC- All time high caprolactam spread to drive earnings:: Emkay

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GSFC
All time high caprolactam spread to drive earnings


BUY

CMP: Rs 349                                        Target Price: Rs 530

n     Reiterate BUY on the back of sharp increase in caprolactam prices (+38% yoy in H1FY11) and strong valuations      
n     Benzene and caprolactam spread has increased to US$1800 / mt by Nov’10 as against average of US$1200 / mt in FY10 and US$1675 / in H1FY11
n     Strong margins in chemicals segment may trigger H2FY11E earnings upgrade of ~15% while captive ammonia production has helped improve fertiliser segment margins
n     Compelling valuations with FY11 P/BV of 0.9x, EV/EBITDA 2.2x and P/E 5.3x with investment value of Rs 120 / share support downside in the stock

Hero Honda Motors -Near term concerns addressed, Upgrade:: Emkay

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Hero Honda Motors Ltd
Near term concerns addressed, Upgrade rating to HOLD


HOLD

CMP: Rs1,679                                        Target Price: Rs1,720

n     JV termination details has addressed near term concerns. Royalty to reduce from January 2011. Current branding to exist till June 2014 thereafter royalty outflow to cease
n     Adequate time for making alternative arrangement on R&D front. Unrestricted access to export markets once the definitive agreement is signed (in next few weeks)
n     Retain our FY11/FY12 volumes est. of 5.3/5.9mn units and EPS of Rs 107.2/122.8. Upgrade rating to HOLD from REDUCE, retain TP of Rs1,720
n     Continue to have concerns in the medium term with respect to cost of R&D, entering the export markets, brand building and competition from Honda (from FY13)

Exide Industries: Top pick in the sector; initiate with OUTPERFORM: StanC

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Equity Research report by Standard Chartered Research India
Exide Industries: Top pick in the sector; initiate with OUTPERFORM

 We initiate coverage with an OUTPERFORM rating and
price target of Rs201.
 A preferred supplier for most Indian auto OEMs, we
expect Exide to track India’s strong auto sales growth.
 We estimate 26% earnings CAGR over FY10-13E driven
by strong battery demand and margin expansion.
 We value the core business at 18x FY12E earnings,
yielding Rs179, insurance at Rs14 and subsidiaries at
Rs8, to arrive at our price target of Rs201.

Amara Raja Batteries: Fairly valued, initiate with IN-LINE:: Standard Chartered

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Amara Raja Batteries: Fairly valued, initiate with IN-LINE
Equity Research report by Standard Chartered Research India


 We initiate coverage on Amara Raja with an IN-LINE
rating and price target of Rs172.
 Significant exposure to declining telecom demand and
rising lead prices are likely to slow earnings growth to 11%
over FY10-13E.
 At our price target of Rs172, Amara Raja would trade at 8x
FY12E earnings, in line with its 4-yr average one-year
forward multiple of 8x. Looks fairly valued.

Standard Chartered: India Battery Sector -Charged up for growth

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India Battery Sector
Charged up for growth

 We estimate India’s battery sector would post a 17% CAGR over FY10-13E driven by 18% CAGR in auto segment sales
and 15% CAGR in industrial segment sales over the same period.
 We expect strong auto sector demand – from both the OEM and the replacement segments – to result in 18% CAGR in
auto battery sales over FY10-13E.
 Industrial battery sales, too, are likely to grow strongly driven by the demand outlook for UPS and railway/power
application batteries.
 Given the duopoly in the industry, we do not expect price wars to break out any time soon. The resultant pricing power
and cushion against input prices deserve a premium valuation, especially for the vertically integrated player (Exide).
 We initiate coverage on Exide with an OUTPERFORM rating and price target of Rs201 and on Amara Raja with IN-LINE
and price target of Rs172.