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Key Takeaways
Top-10 order remains unchanged: The top-10 order in print media remained
unchanged. Dainik Jagran is maintaining its lead amongst the print dailies
albeit on flattish growth rate, Hindustan is closing in the leadership gap at
No.3 position, and Dainik Bhaskar is growing smartly at 7% ror. With the
exception of Daily Thanthi, all other dailies registered growth during the
quarter under review.
TOI remains undisputed leader, DNA and The ET interchange places: Out of
the top-10 English dailies, 4 showed positive growth in AIR figures, with the
Times of India (TOI) retaining its leadership with an AIR of 7.3mn. Hindustan
Times registered AIR of 3.5mn, an increase of ~2% ror over 2Q survey, and
retained its second position. The Hindu followed next with an AIR of 2.1mn
(down 3.7% ror over 2Q survey). DNA and The Economic Times (ET)
interchanged places in this survey over the last one - ET turned in an
impressive show registering 6% ror growth in AIR.
Hindustan registers maximum growth amongst top-5 Hindi dailies: Among
the Hindi publications, Dainik Jagran retained its position as the No.1 Hindi
daily, while competitors Dainik Bhaskar and Hindustan reported an AIR of
13.5mn and 10.8mn, respectively. Hindustan was the top gainer in terms of
readership among the top-5 Hindi dailies.
Our Universe
Jagran Prakashan – Dainik Jagran posted flattish AIR in 3Q survey over 2Q.
However, it retained its leadership position in its home market of UP gaining
1.1% ror in AIR and emerged strong with a 6.3% ror increase in readership in
Delhi and the NCR region. However, it lost ground in MP and
Punjab/Chandigarh.
HT Media – HT Media (HTML) put up a good show across its publications
(Hindustan Times, Hindustan and Mint), with Hindustan registering an
increase in readership of 6.9% ror; Hindustan Times and Mint reported flat
readership.
Deccan Chronicle – Deccan Chronicle (DCHL) recorded a poor performance
readership across its key markets registering a decline of 6.4% ror in overall
AIR to 1.1mn over the 2Q survey. The publication took heavy beating in all its
markets - Bangalore (decline of 4% ror), Chennai (decline of 14% ror) and
Andhra Pradesh (decline of 4% ror).
The Top order unchanged – Dainik Jagran feels competitive pressure
Dainik Jagran once again emerged as the No1 read newspaper in the country in
the IRS 3Q survey. However, this victory came on the back of a mere increase in
readers by 25,000 over 2Q survey. Dainik Jagran is clearly feeling the pressure of
the increased competitive intensity, is focused on defending its home turf of Uttar
Pradesh (Hindustan is aggressively increasing its footprints there) and the markets
in Bihar/Jharkhand (Dainik Bhaskar has entered Ranchi, Jamshedpur and plans to
expand further). The daily has not been able to recover its readership position from
1Q survey, lagging behind by 3,63,000 readers compared to 1Q.
At No.2, Hindustan continued its strong growth momentum, logging maximum
gain of 6.9% ror, while Dainik Bhaskar reduced the readership gap between itself
and Dainik Jagran, registering a growth of 1.4% ror. All other publications with the
exception of Daily Thanthi exhibited growth.
English readership – A mixed bag
The AIR of the top-10 daily English newspapers posted flattish growth in absolute
terms over 2Q survey to 18.6mn, without any change in the top-order except for
The Economic Times switching places with DNA.
TOI maintained its leadership position among the English dailies with an AIR of
7.3mn, adding 166,000 readers since the IRS 2Q survey. Among the top-5 dailies,
TOI and Hindustan Times (HT) were the only dailies to register growth.
DCHL was the biggest loser among the top-5 English dailies, registering an overall
decline in AIR of 6.4% ror to 1.1mn. Among the other dailies, The Telegraph,
which dominates much of the eastern market, reported negative growth. While
Mumbai Mirror and The New Indian Express saw a decline in AIR of 3.8% and
2.3% respectively, The Tribune recorded growth of 1% in AIR at 594,000, finishing
eighth, ninth and tenth, respectively
Hindi Readership – Hindustan emerges the biggest gainer in top-5
The AIR of the top-10 Hindi dailies posted an impressive growth of 2.8% in the 3Q
survey to 66.6mn as against 64.8mn in 2Q survey. While Dainik Jagran and
Dainik Bhaskar retained their lead positions with AIR of 16mn and 13.5mn
respectively, Hindustan emerged the biggest gainer among the top-5 Hindi dailies
gaining 6.9% ror.
Dainik Jagran – Delhi/NCR register growth, MP and Punjab weaken
While Dainik Jagran continued to be the No.1 Hindi daily with an AIR of 16.0mn,
its gap with the top-3 competitors has reduced; Dainik Bhaskar maintained its
readership this quarter at 13.5mn, while Hindustan grew smartly by 6.9% ror to
10.8mn (10.1mn).
In Uttar Pradesh, Dainik Jagran managed to retain its No1 position despite the
9.2% ror growth posted by Hindustan to 3.2mn and Amar Ujala maintaining its
readership at 6.7mn during the quarter. Further, Dainik Jagran maintained its No2
position in Bihar, registering a marginal increase in readership by 0.6% ror.
However, in Jharkhand the paper registered a dip in readership by 1.3% ror on
account of the increasing competitive intensity (Hindustan and Prabhat Khabar
registered an increase in readership by 11% ror and 13% ror, respectively). In
Punjab and Chandigarh, Dainik Jagran took a beating, registering a ror decline in
readership by 7%, 10% respectively, to ~0.8mn (combining both Punjab and
Chandigarh), slipping behind Dainik Bhaskar (readership of ~1mn), while Punjab
Kesari maintained its lead with a readership of 1.2mn.
On ror basis, i-Next recorded dismal performance following decline in readership;
Competitor Amar Ujala Compact however, recorded increased 27.5% ror in UP,
the bastion of i-Next, garnering readership of ~1.2mn.
HT Media – Registers good show
HTML turned in a good performance across its publications (Hindustan Times,
Hindustan and Mint), with Hindustan registering an increase in readership of 6.9%
ror, while Hindustan Times and Mint reported flat readership. Hindustan, HTML's
Hindi daily, added 6,96,000 readers on the back of strong gains in UP (9.2% ror
to 3.2mn), Jharkhand (11% ror to 1.6mn) and Uttaranchal (15.0% ror, 0.2mn).
Hindustan Times retains leadership in Delhi, overtakes DNA in Mumbai
HTML's flagship daily, Hindustan Times, saw increased traction in terms of
readership and maintained its second spot in Delhi with a readership of 1.9mn. In
Delhi, both Hindustan Times and TOI registered similar decline of ~2% ror during
the quarter.
In Mumbai, TOI continued to rule with an AIR of 1.6mn, registering an increase of
6.1% ror. Hindustan Times posted significant increase of 4.7% ror in its AIR over
2Q survey, overtaking DNA (its nearest rival) to become the No.2 player in the
market. We attribute the phenomenal performance by Hindustan Times in Mumbai
to its mix of aggressive product differentiation, an editorial focus to include
younger readers and a fine-tuning and enhancement of circulation to reach larger
numbers and the right reader groups.
Mint cements its second position in terms of readership
Business publications exhibited a positive trend in the IRS 3Q2010 survey, with all
the top-3 business dailies recording growth. Economic Times, Mint and Business
Standard recorded a ror increase in readership by 6–13% over 2Q survey.
Hindustan – Steady gains across markets
Hindustan continued to post steady gains in all its markets, registering growth of
6.9% ror in its AIR to 10.8mn over the 2Q survey. The publication's repositioning
strategy and aggressive campaigns targeting youth in the Hindi heartland paid rich
dividends in terms of readership gains particularly in the UP, Bihar and Jharkhand
regions where it registered a ror jump of 9.2%, 5.1% and 11% in its AIR to 3.2mn,
4.5mn and 1.6mn, respectively. In UP, Hindustan continued its positive strides
registering strong gain of 9.2% in its AIR to 3.2mn, as growth from the launch of
its editions in Agra in Uttar Pradesh, Chandigarh (Union Territory) and Dehradun
in Uttarakhand has started getting reflected in the IRS rounds.
Deccan Chronicle – Slips as TOI gains ground
Deccan Chronicle (DCHL) turned in a poor performance in terms of readership
across its key markets, registering a decline of 6.4% ror in its overall AIR to 1.1mn
over 2Q survey. The publication took a heavy beating in all its markets. DCHL
registered a decline in the Bangalore market (dip of 4% ror with an AIR of
108,000), in Chennai market (decline of 14% ror with an AIR of 215,000) and in
Andhra Pradesh market (decline of 4% ror with an AIR of 753,000).
Outlook
We remain positive on the Indian print sector. We expect advertisement revenues
to register a CAGR of 11% over FY2010-13. The vernacular print space is
expected to record 14% CAGR in advertisement revenues over the mentioned
period driven by higher ad-spend in tier II/III towns on account of increased per
capita income. However, increasing competitive intensity and newsprint prices (the
highest cost to print companies) will act as headwinds and restrict profitability of
the print companies in the near term.
We prefer stocks having high readership (ensures high advertising revenue) and
diverse geographical presence. We continue to like Jagran Prakashan for
consistently maintaining its leadership position in terms of AIR over the past several
IRS surveys.
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