Tata Global Beverages: Another disappointing quarter overall :: Kotak Securities

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Another disappointing quarter overall. TGBL reported another weak quarter overall, reporting 3% revenue growth and 2% EBITDA growth on a consolidated basis. While EOC registered solid performance after many sluggish quarters, domestic tea business, coffee plantations business and Tetley (tea) business remained a drag. We retain REDUCE rating on the stock with a target price of `160 (includes `25/share for the Starbucks JV); will review our numbers and rating after the management concall.

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Dismal performance!!! • Tata Global Beverages :: ICICI Securities, report

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Tata Global Beverages Ltd. (TGBL) | Q3FY15 Result Update | Mixed-Bag performance: international segment reported muted performance: Maintain BUY with target price of Rs180 ::IndiaNivesh

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Sell Tata Global Beverages Ltd between CMP & Rs.150.50 ::HDFC Securities

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Technicals- Tata Global Beverages, Asahi, Excel crop, Sumeet Industries :: Business Line

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High tax outgo hurts bottomline… • Tata Global Beverages :: ICICI Securities, PDF link

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Tata Global Beverages Ltd. |Q2FY15 Result Update | Mixed-Bag performance: International segment continue to report growth: Maintain BUY :: IndiaNivesh

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SJVN, Tata Global Beverages, Tide Water Oil - Technicals :: Business Line

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Tata Global Beverages: Hold :: Business Line

Tata Global Beverages Ltd (TAGL.NS): 1QF14: Earnings Inline: Morgan Stanley Research

Tata Global Beverages Ltd (TAGL.NS): 1QF14: Earnings Inline: Morgan Stanley Research

Quick Comment - In Line Results: TGBL reported consolidated revenue, EBITDA and adjusted PAT growth of 5%, 15% and 16%, respectively, vs. our expectations of 7%, 22% and 12%. TGBL's revenue growth was largely driven by domestic revenue growth of 18% with <1 150bps="" 22="" 2qf14="" a="" across="" and="" believe="" benefit="" br="" business="" categories="" cost="" coupled="" cyclical="" drive="" efficiency="" efforts="" expansion="" f14e.="" for="" from="" fx.="" fx="" geographies="" growth="" highlight="" impact="" improvement="" improving="" in="" initiatives="" input="" international="" is="" its="" key="" kick="" large="" management="" margin="" most="" of="" on="" ongoing="" onwards.="" operating="" ow.="" part="" pat="" profitability="" remain="" results.="" should="" tailwinds="" tgbl="" the="" these="" to="" uptrend="" was="" we="" will="" with="" yet="">
International Tea: International tea revenues for 1QF14 were down 3% YoY. We estimate favorable FX impact of ~2% and organic revenue decline of ~5%. According to management, Australia, Canada, the Middle East and France reported good performance for the quarter. However, they highlighted the challenging business environment in the UK and poor performance in Eastern Europe. In our view, the key positive has been operating margins which are flat, driven by a concerted effort for cost rationalization and product mix improvement. Over the next two quarters, we expect this segment to benefit from relatively benign input costs.

Domestic Tea: Increase in domestic tea prices adversely affected the India tea business. TGBL reported 18% revenue growth for the quarter, driven largely by pricing. TGBL reported MAT 20.2% volume share and 21.9% value share for June 2013 in India. Gross margin declined 150 bps during the quarter, reflecting high domestic tea prices. EBITDA margin decline however was marginally lower at ~140bps as management continues with its focus on cost rationalization.

Technicals -RPower, Vijaya Bank, Manappuram, Asian Paints, Shree Renuka Sugars, Tata Global Beverages :: Business Line

 

Tata Global Beverages Jolly good show; Buy :: Anand Rathi

Jolly good show; Buy
Key takeaways
Growth momentum sustained. In FY13 Tata Global Beverages (TGB)
reported creditable, 11%, growth in consolidated revenues to `73.5bn, in line
with our estimates. This was largely driven by volume and value growth in
India, where the company’s domestic revenues rose 14% yoy. We estimate
that crucial price hikes effected across international markets in its tea
portfolio (largely Tetley) helped it register 9% growth in international
revenue. Additionally, its coffee operations via its subsidiary Tata Coffee
(TC), also did exceedingly well, reporting a 10% jump in revenue.
In tough operating environment EBIDTA margin up. The consolidated
OPM rose 110bps yoy to 10.5% following the strong performance in India as
well as an encouraging performance in international markets such as Australia.
At `7.7bn, EBIDTA jumped 23% yoy in FY13, due to stringent cost control
and tight inventory management. However, PAT was constrained at `3.7bn,
(up 5% yoy) on account of higher short-term borrowing costs and an
exceptional expense for restructuring international operations. Adjusted PAT
stood at `4bn, a 20% yoy growth.
Our take. Across all parameters results paralleled our estimates. We are
heartened by the value growth following price hikes in the tea portfolio, as
well as stabilised coffee operations after last year’s untoward correction in
prices of Arabica. Despite the backdrop of a recessionary environment in
mature international markets, we believe the company will successfully effect
growth through strategic price increases and volume push while
simultaneously extracting efficiencies from its operational set-up.
We maintain our FY14e and FY15e estimates as well as our price target of
`168, which represents a 17% upside from the ruling price. Risk: Inability to
manage raw material prices and SG&A expenses.

Technicals- Tata Global Beverages, Jain Irrigation, TV18, HBL Power, BGR Energy Systems, Aditya Birla Money, ::Business Line

 

Tata Coffee: Buy :: Business Line

Technical Query - Ashok Leyland, BHEL, Dabur, Tata Global Beverages, Gravita, Gabriel, Kennametal::Business Line

Tata Global Beverages, Jyothy Laboratories, Tech Mahindra reports by Kotak Sec PDF links

:Tata coffee declared its Q4 FY12 and FY12 results : Team Microsec Research

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Tata coffee declared its Q4 FY12 and FY12  results on 8 may 2012. In the Q4 FY12, the revenue jumped by 13% on yoy basis due to 14% and 37% growth in Coffee and Estate Supplies Division. On account of stiff rise in raw material and staff cost, the EBITDA margin dropped by 260 basis point on yoy basis. Furthermore, the profit before tax decreased by 254 basis points due to high interest rate, restructuring costs and unfruitful project cost. On the other hand, during FY12, loan decreased by 1% and cash increased by 53%. We have neutral view about the stock.

Regards,

Team Microsec Research

Sizzling Stocks: Tata Global Beverages; Oriental Bank of Commerce :: Business Line

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Sizzling Stocks: Tata Global Beverages (Rs 119.1)

Tata Global Beverages soared 22 per cent accompanied by extraordinary volumes in the last week, following its announcement of joint venture with the Starbucks group. With this rally, the stock appears to have resumed its long-term uptrend that has been in place from its 2008 trough of Rs 43.

But as the stock has run up sharply, its daily indicators and oscillators have reached over brought levels. The stock is hovering well above the upper boundary of the daily Bollinger Bands indicating over bought position. It is also facing key resistance at around Rs 121. A corrective decline to Rs 115 or Rs 111 is possible in the near-term if the stock fails to move above Rs 121.

On the upside, emphatic break through of Rs 121 will take the stock higher to Rs 128 and Rs 138 in the medium-term. Significant medium-term support for the stock is pegged at Rs 105. A fall below this level will mar the current medium-term uptrend and pull the stock down to Rs 95 and to Rs 92 in the ensuing months.

Oriental Bank of Commerce (Rs 288.2)

Following OBC's results report for the quarter ended December '11, the stock continued its strong up move by gaining 11.7 per cent in the past week. Ever since bottoming out from its 52-week low of Rs 190 registered on January 2, it has been on a strong medium-term uptrend. The stock has surged 51 per cent from its 52-week low. It has further breached the upper boundary of daily Bollinger Bands representing over brought position.

Further, the stock has a significant long-term resistance band ahead between Rs 300 and Rs 307. A downward reversal from this resistance can drag the stock down to Rs 260 and to Rs 230. But a conclusive breakthrough of the aforementioned resistance band will set a new trading range for the stock and pave the way for a rally to Rs 345-355 range in the medium-term.

Tata Global Beverages: Margins have likely bottomed out; reiterate BUY :: Kotak Securities

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Tata Global Beverages (TGBL)
Consumer products
Margins have likely bottomed out; reiterate BUY. 3QFY12 was a demonstration of
our thesis articulated in a TGB upgrade note of December 20, 2011 - (1) volume-driven
11% sales growth in India (2) lower tea commodity prices drove 600 bps expansion in
standalone EBITDA margin (3) sales growth in Tetley, finally (4) EOC turnaround likely –
margins remain weak yoy but improve qoq. While fundamental worries regarding
demonstrated execution capabilities of management and TGB’s predominant presence
in low-growth markets remain, cheap valuations (deservedly so due to low RoE) likely
captures the negatives. Initial signs of ramp-up in ‘Himalayan’ water are visible. BUY.

Stocks strategy: Consider going short on VIP Industries, Tata Global Beverages :: Business Line

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Tata Global Beverages (Rs 91): The long-term outlook remains negative for the stock Tata Global Beverages. Only a close above Rs 106.5 will negate the current outlook. The stock finds immediate resistance at Rs 96 and support at Rs 84. It finds major support at Rs 75, a conclusive close below that would trigger a fresh fall. If the stock manages to close above the key resistance, then it can create new all-time high for the stock, breaking the current peak of Rs 138.

F&O pointers: The Tata Global Beverages futures witnessed unwinding of long positions on Friday despite the stock gaining marginally. It shed over one lakh shares in open interest. This indicates that traders are not willing to carry over their position and preferred to book profits. Options are not active on Tata Global Beverages. 

Strategy: Traders could consider going short on Tata Global Beverages. While the stop-loss can be placed at Rs 96, profits can be booked at Rs 84. This strategy is for traders who have patience as the stock is low beta in nature. It may not swing wildly in relation to index fluctuations. Market lot is 4,000 shares a contract.

VIP Industries (Rs 160): The long-term outlook turned negative for VIP Industries as it closed below its major support of Rs 167. The stock now finds immediate resistance at Rs 172 and support at Rs 143. For VIP Industries, the major support is placed at Rs 132. A close below Rs 132 would trigger a fresh sell-off, which can push the stock sharply downwards to Rs 103. Likewise, a conclusive close above Rs 189 would change the outlook positive for the stock. In that event, VIP Industries could chart a new all-time high. F&O pointers:VIP Industries added fresh short positions on Friday; it accumulated over one lakh shares in open interests. Options are not active on VIP industries.

Strategy: Traders could consider going short on VIP Industries, keeping the stop-loss at Rs 172 for an initial target of Rs 143. Trail the stop-loss so as to protect profit potentials. In case VIP Industries opens on a negative note on Tuesday, investors can keep the stop-loss at day's opening or high for the recommended target. Market lot is 1,250 shares a contract.

Note: Both the strategies are for traders who have high penchant for risk, as the market lot is high.

Follow-up: We had recommended a short strangle on TCS. The position is in-the-money. As expected, the stock faced resistance and moved downwards. Investors could hold on the strategy till expiry for maximum profits. We had also recommended a long on Aurobindo Pharma. Though the stock opened on positive note, it could not sustain the initial gains. We recommend an exit, even though the stop-loss mentioned last week still holds.