Indian Hotels Company - Q1FY14 results :: Team Microsec Research

Indian Hotels Company Ltd announced its Q1FY14 results on 12^th August, 2013.

Indian Hotels Company Ltd started off FY13 with a loss of INR19.09 crore. The company arrived at net sales of INR908.7 crore, which was up by 6.58% on YoY basis, but down by 10.61% on QoQ basis. The EBITDA for the quarter was INR106.38 crore, which was up by 4.81% on YoY basis, but down by 43.35% on QoQ basis. The company posted net loss of INR19.09 crore as compared to a net loss of INR389.17 crore in Q1FY13 and net loss of INR33.36 crore in Q4FY13.

The management made a big announcement saying “It is going to spin off its overseas assets and will be seeking approval from RBI soon”. We think this would be a positive step for the company as the overseas assets are running into loss.

Regards,

Team Microsec Research

Technicals: Indian Hotels, IOB, Zylog Systems, Lloyd Electric, Mangalam Cement, ING Vysya, DLF :: Business Line

Indian Hotels: Hold ::Business Line

Sizzling Stocks - Indian Hotels Co. , Persistent Systems :: Business Line

 

Indian Hotels : STRONG BUY Target price: `81:: Microsec

We rate “Indian Hotels Company Ltd” a “STRONG BUY”. Indian Hotels Company Limited (IHCL) and its subsidiaries
collectively known as Taj Hotels Resorts and Palaces is one of Asia's largest and finest hotel company, with an
inventory of 13629 rooms and 115 hotels across India and internationally. It has presence across different chain
segments like Luxury, Upper Upscale, upper scale and Budget segment with various brands named Taj, Vivanta,
Gateway and Ginger Hotels. With its active capacity addition in rooms and hotels, solid entry barriers in Luxury
segment, improved occupancy rates, amplifying hotel tariffs and focus on boosting up the cash flows, we see Indian
Hotels Company to grow at a CAGR of 10.28% in terms of revenue and margins improving substantially by ~160bps for
the next five years.

Indian Hotels Company announced its Q4FY12 & FY12 results :: Microsec Research

‘We've been the most aggressive of all players' : Managing Director and CEO, Indian Hotels :Business Line

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Hotel industry in India is set to grow rapidly to meet the rising demand. Indian Hotels is well-positioned to take advantage of this surge with its properties spread across geographies and spanning various price points. In this recent interview to Business Line at the company's newest property, Vivanta by Taj at Bekal, Kerala, Mr Raymond Bickson, Managing Director and CEO, Indian Hotels Company Limited, pointed out that Indian Hotels has been growing at rates much faster than its competitors.

Excerpts from the interview:

How are occupancy levels in the hotel industry today? How does Indian Hotels plan to take on the competition?

In 2003, India had 62,000 rooms, while in the beginning of 2011 there were 1,67,000. India has, at present, occupancy levels of 65-68 per cent. In the last 10 years, the levels have doubled. We are now sold out five days a week in a year.

India's hotel market has to grow to meet the increasing demand. We will need 400,000-500,000 rooms to meet this demand. To cite a few examples, China, which has 2.8 million rooms, plans to build 600,000 more; the US with 5 million rooms, plans to increase it by another 400,000.

Hold Indian Hotels; Target :Rs 70 ::ICICI Securities

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H i g h e r   s u p p l y   k e e p s   c h e c k   o n   o c c u p a n c y…
Indian Hotels Company (IHCL) came out with its Q3FY12 results wherein
the company reported standalone net revenues of ~| 521.5 crore (up
~7.4% YoY) in line with our estimate of | 518.5 crore. However, the PAT
of | 50.5 crore (vs. profit of | 50.3 crore in Q3FY11) was a bit below our
estimate of | 58.7 crore mainly on account of a squeeze in margins and
some exceptional losses. The operating margin dipped by 270 bps YoY to
27.0% mainly on the back of a rise in employee, raw material and other
cost  by  16%,  10%  and  9%  YoY,  respectively. Besides this, the company
also incurred an exceptional loss of | 14.8 crore (i.e. notional forex loss of
| 6.8 crore on forex loans due to adverse currency movement and a
shortfall in interruption claim of | 8.0 crore). As a result, its net profit
growth remained flat compared to last year.
ƒ New room additions and marginal rise in occupancy drives topline
IHCL increased its room count by ~10% YoY in Q3FY12. This, along
with a marginal rise in occupancy, has led to topline growth of
~7.4% YoY to | 521.5 crore on a standalone basis. Among regions,
cities such as Goa, Mumbai and Hyderabad recorded higher growth
in RevPAR whereas a drop in ARRs was visible in Chennai and Delhi.
The slowdown in recovery was primarily due to oversupply of
rooms particularly in Delhi, Chennai, Hyderabad, Bangalore and
Pune. Mumbai was the only metro, which showed an improvement
in occupancy (OR) albeit with flat room rates.
ƒ Higher operating costs dent operating margins
IHCL’s operating profit declined  by 2.5% YoY to | 140.7 crore as
operating cost remained at a higher level with 11.6% YoY growth at
~| 380 crore. Among major cost  drivers, raw material, employee
and other costs surged by 16%, 10% and 9% YoY, respectively.
V a l u a t i o n s
We have lowered our FY13E target multiple factoring the risk of delayed
recovery on the international business front and supply pressure on the
domestic side. We value the stock at 10x FY13E EV/EBITDA (earlier
valued at 12x) and arrive at a target price of | 70 with a HOLD rating

Buy Indian Hotels; Target : Rs 90 ::ICICI Securities,

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H i g h e r   o p e r a t i n g   c o s t   w e i g  h s   o n   m a r g i n s …
Indian Hotels Company (IHCL) came out with its Q2FY12 results wherein
the company reported standalone net revenues of ~ | 358 crore (up ~9%
YoY)  in  line  with  our  estimate  of  |  355  crore.  However,  the  PAT  of  |  8.1
crore (against loss of | 6 crore in Q2FY11) was below our estimate of |
15.2 crore in Q2FY12 mainly on account of higher operating costs. We
believe the revenue growth was mainly driven by improved occupancy
and marginal improvement in average room rates (ARRs). The EBITDA
margin dipped by 33 bps YoY to 10.8% mainly on the back of a rise in
employee cost and P&F cost by 22% YoY and 17% YoY, respectively.
Interest cost declined by 16% YoY to | 25 crore due to conversion of
short-term loans into long-term loans.
ƒ Better geographical room mix aids topline growth
IHCL reported topline growth of ~8.8% YoY to | 358 crore on a
standalone basis largely driven by ~100 bps YoY rise in occupancy
(I-direct estimate: 63%) due to its better geographical room mix and
marginal growth in ARR by ~2% YoY. Performance of leisure
destinations remained subdued due to seasonality impact while
among business destinations RevPAR across Delhi, Bangalore and
Kolkata improved ~1%, ~5% and ~8% YoY for the same period.
ƒ Higher operating costs put pressure on margins
IHCL’s operating profit grew merely by 6% YoY to ~| 39 crore as
operating cost remained at a higher level with 9.3% YoY growth at
~| 319 crore. Among major cost drivers, employee cost and power
& fuel cost surged by 22% YoY to | 117 crore and 17% YoY to | 33
crore, respectively.
V a l u a t i o n s
We expect FY12E and FY13E revenues to grow by ~9.5% and ~11.5%,
respectively, on account of a moderate industry outlook. At the CMP of |
70, the stock is trading at 12.6x and 10.1x its FY12E and FY13E
EV/EBITDA, respectively. However, we continue to maintain our target
price of | 90 (i.e. 12x FY13 EV/EBITDA) factoring its asset value and
maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

Indian Hotels:: 1Q FY12 - An encouraging start to the year ::JPMorgan

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Indian Hotels Overweight
IHTL.BO, IH IN
1Q FY12 - An encouraging start to the year


IHCL has reported an encouraging start to the year, delivering growth both
on revenues (Rs3.7B, +12% Y/Y) and EBITDA (Rs681MM, + 28% Y/Y)
in 1Q. EBITDA margin at 18% was lower than our estimate of 20% on
account of lower operating leverage. However, commentary on ARR/
occupancy points to an improvement in domestic business. However this
improvement is contingent on how the overall macro shapes up into 2H.
Note that 1Q is normally a weak seasonal quarter for the hotel industry
with full year profit substantially back-loaded in the 3rd and 4th quarters.
 Taj president stake increase done at Rs 35MM/room: During the Q
the company acquired 5% shareholding in Piem (Taj Cuffe Parade) for
Rs 501MM valuing the property at close to Rs35MM/Room (JPM
estimate). With this transaction the company has become a subsidiary of
IHCL and hence its EBITDA will get consolidated into the company.
This should drive a Rs410MM increase (9% pro forma basis) to consol
EBITDA (which in our view has been done to help coverage ratios). We
note that the transaction value of Rs35MM/room is far in excess of
current market implied EV/Room of Taj’s portfolio (which we think is
undervalued).
 Key operating highlights: Y/Y trends reported by IHCL point to
improvement in the domestic business both on ARR and occupancies.
Quarterly revenue for the company grew by 12% whereas EBITDA grew
by 28%. We note that 1Q EBITDA is now back to the 2007 level on the
back of inventory growth and contribution from management contracts.
In terms of domestic business, YTD CY11 Foreign tourist arrival growth
is 10.9%, which is an improvement of 200bp over the 2010 level. We are
currently factoring in no increase in occupancies from last year’s level
(65% vs. peak of 73%) in our estimates.
 Investment thesis: We remain Overweight. IHCL, in our view, remains
in a deep value zone trading at a substantial discount to its asset value
(EV/ Room 13MM) and offering near-term volume growth. Promoters
have infused close to Rs~5B into the company already (at Rs104/share,
37% above the current price), thus helping to reduce debt to some extent.
However, given the overall macro uncertainty, catalysts for a stock price
re-rating in the medium term may be limited.

Buy Indian Hotels; Target : Rs 90 ::ICICI Securities,

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Y e t   t o   s e e   a   h e a l t h y   r e c o v e  r y…
Indian Hotels (IHCL) reported Q1FY12 standalone net revenues of | 369.5
crore (up 12% YoY) and PAT of | 20.2 crore against |3.3 crore in Q1FY11
below our estimate of | 414.1 crore, and | 55.1 crore, respectively. We
believe, incremental revenues from re-opening of Taj Hotels, Mumbai and
marginal pick up in average occupancy levels drew topline growth, while
average room rates (ARRs) remained flat due to rising supply concern. On
the cost front, operating costs surged moderately by 9% YoY on the back
of adoption of tight cost control measures. As a result, operating margin
saw expansion of over 200bps YoY to 18.4%.
ƒ Re-opening of hotel, marginal pickup in demand drives topline
IHCL’s Q1FY12 topline grew moderately by 12% YoY to | 369.5
crore on a standalone basis mainly on the back of ~150 bps YoY
rise in occupancy and marginal growth in ARR by ~4%YoY to
|8500. The result also has impact of incremental revenue from Taj
Heritage property, which reopened on August 2010. Due to seasonal
impact performance of leisure destinations remained subdued while
among the business destinations RevPAR across Delhi and
Bangalore improved by ~2% to ~10% for the same period. We
believe the industry is still in the nascent stage of recovery and is
yet to make the transition from occupancy led cycle to the one
supported by rising average room realisations.
ƒ Jump in bottom-line on lower interest outgo, higher other income
Though the operating performance remained subdued, the bottoline
surged sharply to | 20.3 crore (up ~510% YoY) due to rise in other
income (up by 122% YoY to | 13 crore) and lower interest outgo
(down by ~38% YoY to | 21 crore).
V a l u a t i o n s
While  domestic  business  is  expected  to  grow  moderately  by  13%  p.a.
international business growth is expected to remain muted in a wake of
economy slowdown. We lower our FY12E and FY13E sales forecast by
3.3% and 5% respectively. At the CMP of | 74, the stock is trading at 9.2x
and 7.6x its FY12E and FY13E EV/EBITDA, respectively. We lower our
FY13E multiple target and value the company at 9.0x FY13E EV/EBITDA
(i.e. at EV per  room of | 1 crore),  factoring its asset  value and revise our
target price downward to | 90 with a BUY rating

Indian Hotels - F1Q12: Operational Numbers below Expectation:: Morgan Stanley Research,

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Indian Hotels Company Ltd
F1Q12: Operational
Numbers below Expectation
Quick Comment – Impact on our views: IHCL
reported standalone revenue of Rs3.7bn (up 12% YoY),
EBITDA of Rs681mn (up 28% YoY) and adjusted profit
of Rs217mn (against a loss of Rs9mn in F1Q11). This
compares with our estimates of revenue of Rs4.1bn,
EBITDA of Rs1bn, and profit of Rs232mn. Operational
profit was disappointing given weak revenue growth,
which we believe was primarily due to slower growth in
room rates. Hence, while EBITDA margin expanded
218bp YoY, we believe it was muted.
What's new: We were expecting a stronger quarter as
F1Q11 numbers were affected by non-availability of
rooms in the heritage wing of the Taj Mahal Palace &
Tower following the November 2008 terrorist attacks.
However, while those rooms were back in operation, we
believe overall operational trends in the country
remained weak, as average room rates continued to be
under pressure while occupancy rates showed a
reasonably stronger trend.  
The company however, recorded higher other income
and lower interest expense resulting in a lower miss on
PBT.
Conclusion: While improving domestic industry trends
could aid performance, we believe the company
continues to face pressure on RevPARs. Further,
earnings from international operations too could remain
weak given the current macro condition globally, thus
posing challenges for consolidated earnings. We
maintain our Equal-weight rating on the stock.  

India Hotels -Insiders buying... but equity isn't interested : JPMorgan

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 Promoters of hotel stocks have been investing in their stocks… over
the last six to 10 months. Tata sons have infused money into IHCL via
warrants and the stock at Rs103.64/share, EIH did a rights issue of
Rs12B in Feb-11. Leela has shown insider buying activity of late as well
(US$1.3M purchase).
 …Add to this, most foreign players are looking to step up their India
expansion: Mariott plans to reach 100 properties in India by 2015 (vs.
14 currently). Starwood (whose entire top management was in India for
a month) aims to achieve 100 properties (vs. 35 currently) by 2015.
Hilton, starting off of a low base aims to reach 19 properties over the
next five years (vs. six operational currently). We note that most of this
expansion is happening via management contract route and in general
liquidity conditions for developers are tight; hence, from a competitive
perspective the supply line will be delayed.
 And Domestic business outlook is still healthy: Tourist arrivals are up
by 11% YTD as per the latest data released by the ministry of tourism.
This compares to 8.9% growth that was seen during the same period last
year. In general, while we are in a seasonally weak (1H) period currently,
business improvement in 2H should tie in nicely with a macro rebound
expected during the same time.
 … Yet equity investors are still not interested, as seen by the sharp
YTD underperformance of most hotel stocks (esp. IHCL, IHTL,
Rs81.60, OW). While some underperformance may be warranted, given
overall macro conditions, a sharp 20% YTD fall, in our view, now places
some of these stocks in a value zone. On our numbers, IHCL is currently
trading markedly below replacement cost levels (adj. EV/room
=Rs13MM) and offers near-term growth with potential for debt
deleveraging and an optionality on international business turnaround.
Retain OW.

JP MORGAN: Indian Hotels- Trading below replacement cost, even as cycle starts trending up

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Indian Hotels Overweight
IHTL.BO, IH IN
Trading below replacement cost, even as cycle starts
trending up


Indian Hotel’s (IHCL) stock price over the last one year has the lagged
broader market (-22%) and US hospitality peer group (-26%) even as: 1)
operating trends (ARR/Occupancies) in the domestic business have continued
to improve and are slowly approaching pre crisis levels; 2) Visible debt
reduction (via warrant/stock issuance at Rs103.6) has happened; and 3)
fundamentals of its international portfolio have markedly improved. Further,
commentary coming out of US hotel companies point toward an overall
healthy demand environment. On an asset value basis, the stock on our
calculations is trading at EV/Room of Rs18MM, below replacement cost
levels. In terms of EV/EBITDA, FY13 multiple of 11x compares favorably
against the long-term (10-year) average of 14x. Our FY13 EBITDA estimate
is 10% lower than consensus. Reiterate OW, Mar -12 PT of Rs130.
• Operational performance is improving: 9MFY11 occupancy levels for
the domestic business have improved to 64% (vs. 62% in 1H, +300bps Y/Y)
and ARRs (at Rs8,975) increased by 7-8% Y/Y (after a long gap). While the
overall occupancy levels are still below the peak levels of 70-75%
witnessed in FY07-08, the low occupancy was party attributable to some
security warnings in Mumbai. In terms of new room additions, the company
is looking to add ~2600 rooms during FY12-13, with an estimated
standalone capex of Rs3B (majority of rooms coming via management
contracts and JVs). Overall for FY11, room additions remain largely on
track with an incremental 600 rooms to be added in 4Q.
• International portfolio performance seems to be healthy with Pierre
operating at 62% occupancy level and rest of the markets (Boston, SFO,
London) at 67-84% levels (+4-11% Y/Y). While ARRs improved
meaningfully in London/Sydney (+12%/6% Y/Y), it remained largely stable
in US hotels Y/Y.
• Debt reduction has happened- IHCL has raised Rs5B via share issuances
and warrants in Dec-Q and additional Rs3.5B is expected to come in FY12
on warrant conversions. Funds will be primarily used for debt repayment,
thereby bringing the net debt down to Rs34B by Q2FY12, as per the
management (FY12 net D/E- 1.0x vs. 1.5x as of FY10).

JP Morgan: Indian Hotels - Trading below replacement cost, even as cycle starts trending up

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Indian Hotels
Overweight
IHTL.BO, IH IN
Trading below replacement cost, even as cycle starts trending up


Indian Hotel’s (IHCL) stock price over the last one year has the lagged
broader market (-22%) and US hospitality peer group (-26%) even as: 1)
operating trends (ARR/Occupancies) in the domestic business have continued
to improve and are slowly approaching pre  crisis levels; 2) Visible debt
reduction (via warrant/stock issuance at Rs103.6) has happened; and 3)
fundamentals of its international portfolio have markedly improved. Further,
commentary coming out of US hotel companies point toward an overall
healthy demand environment. On an asset value basis, the stock on our
calculations is trading at EV/Room of Rs18MM, below replacement cost
levels. In terms of EV/EBITDA, FY13 multiple of 11x compares favorably
against the long-term (10-year) average of 14x. Our FY13 EBITDA estimate
is 10% lower than consensus. Reiterate OW, Mar -12 PT of Rs130.          

INDIAN HOTELS -Selling minority stake in the subsidiary: A positive : Edelweiss

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Roots Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Indian Hotels (IHCL), has approved
the investment of INR 1.5 bn in tranches for acquiring equity stake in it by Omega TC
Holdings (Omega), a private limited company incorporated under the laws of
Singapore.

Indian Hotels - ARRs jump, but numbers below expectations; Buy: Edelweiss

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􀂄 Subdued sales growth; ARRs jump, but ORs disappoint
The Indian Hotels Company (IHCL) registered sales of INR 4.85 bn, up 47.7% Qo-
Q and 10.8% Y-o-Y, in Q3FY11. ARRs increased 15% Y-o-Y to ~INR 11,000
against our expectations of 5%. ORs disappointed with ~68% growth against our
expectation of 75%. For 9mFY11, the company reported ORs and ARRs of 64%
and INR 8,975, respectively, a rise of 7% in ARRs and an improvement of 300bps
in ORs. Due to lower–than-estimated ORs, we are revising down our FY11 and
FY12 ORs estimates to 64% and 70% from 68% and 72%, respectively. We are
also revising down our FY12 ARRs increase estimate to 5% from 10% earlier. Due
to reduced ARRs estimates, we are revising down our FY11 and FY12 sales
estimates 5.8% and 5.2%, respectively.

Indian Hotels, IH IN,:: HSBC - India Investor Conference Highlights

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The worst is behind us
 Q3 was not as good as expected but it seems that the worst is now over. Pick up has started from the bottom of the market,
ie budget hotels. There is a visible improvement in rates and demand. Expect 9% growth in demand for industry. Overall,
India has a supply shortage but may have interim periods of oversupply in some micromarkets due to timing of build-out.
 Situation in micromarkets: Delhi very good – peak volumes. North Mumbai doing very well, Bangalore picking up, Goa
very well, seasonality in Goa vanished. Rajasthan also good. Hyderabad, Pune, south Mombay not doing that well.
 Indian Hotels has c40 projects in the pipeline. To date, it has nearly 13,000 rooms including international.
 Company plans to deleverage balance sheet – has paid off USD debt by taking rupee debt, and migrated short term to long
term debt. Interest expense has declined. Equity has been infused by Tata Sons. Next year more infusion from warrant
conversion (INR4b). Debt likely to come down from INR44b to INR33b.
 Capital expenditure will be funded from internal accruals. Need to spend INR500-600m per year as routine maintenance
capex. Two main projects are Dwarka Delhi – INR3b project, and Gauhati INR1b. Hotel Sea Rock housed in a SPV and
work will begin soon.
 Payroll costs have gone up due to one-time hit on retiree benefits due to interest rate and salary hike assumption changes.
Moreover, results have been depressed by a one-time hit on launch of Vivanta brand and Falaknuma hotel.
 International business: Under pressure due to entry into US. Targeting successful turnaround of the Pierre. Pierre is averaging
USD650 ARR (average room rent), ie a discount to comparable properties. Strategy is to increase occupancies of suites to get
room rates up. Boston averaging USD300, again at a discount to comparable properties. Need to get ARRs up there, too. The
company is losing USD20m PBT annually on US business right now. Breakeven in 12 months is expected.

BNP Paribas: Stock picks: Mid-caps- Indian Hotels

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Indian Hotels
􀂃 Domestic occupancies and average room rates stabilising and starting to increase.
􀂃 Strong free cash-flow generation to ease debt concerns; operating leverage to
amplify earnings.
􀂃 Valuations below through-cycle average (trading at 9x 1-year forward EV/EBITDA
compared to through-cycle average of 12x).
􀂃 BUY: TP of INR129 based on 12x FY12E EV/EBITDA (average through-cycle
multiple).
􀂃 Key Catalysts: World Cup 2011 (Feb 20-Apr 2), Taj Group has a presence in six of
seven cities hosting the World Cup. Further, 4QFY11 is a seasonally strong
quarter.

JP Morgan: Buy Indian Hotels -Decent 3QFY11: Operational performance is improving

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Indian Hotels
Overweight
IHTL.BO, IH IN
Decent 3QFY11: Operational performance is improving


• 3Q FY11 results:  Indian Hotels (IHCL) reported standalone 3Q FY11
EBITDA of Rs1.44B (+294% Q/Q, -5% Y/Y), ahead of our estimate of
Rs1.1B. 3Q FY11 revenues of R4.9B were up 48% Q/Q and EBITDA
margins recovered to 30% (from 16%/11% in 1Q/2Q) in Dec-Q aided by
higher occupancies and improved ARRs. However, the reported margins are
still lower than peak levels of 2HFY07/08 partly on account of high staff
costs (re-instatement of salary benefits) in Dec-Q. 3Q PAT at Rs503MM
comes after two consecutive quarters of standalone loss (due to one-offs).
9M FY11 revenues/EBITDA of Rs11.4B/Rs2.3B rose 18%Y/Y/32%Y/Y
respectively (adjusting for income from insurance income claim last year).