LTCG wasn't the key reason for market to fall; May be it was used as an excuse.

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LTCG wasn't the key reason for market to fall.
May be it was used as an excuse.

Feedback from Market Veterans on LTCG

Everyone sounded disappointed, but said now its reality so need to move on.
Grandfathering is good decision (Or else markets would have fallen more sharply - may be 2000 points on Sensex)
From here till March 31st – only if there is a big rally, investors will sell. (feedback is that 31st Jan high prices won't get breached sooner and/or even it is unlikely that there will be big rally till 31st March 2018).
Since there is no big distinction between long term and short term (No big incentive to hold for more than 1 year now) the market will halt at a level or will fall more...one can anticipate time correction too.
Zero Long Term Capital Gains were incentive to invest into equities (why would anyone look at equities if returns are in line with bonds and 1 has to face volatility).

Feedback from various Big Investors ~

Rakesh Jhunjhnuwala
Sounded very bearish. He said Jan 31st stock price is the likely top of this year.
Markets may go down more.
Many sectors, stocks (especially midcaps trading at crazy vaulations).
Market correction will test new fleet of investors – who have not seen any sharp fall in the last 3 years.
We all have gained disproportionately in equities in last 3 years.
I think there will be prolonged correction in near term.
Elections will be risk factor (Recent NDTV poll suggesting not more than 250 seats to BJP if elections held today).
If there is a correction...
will spend time with family.

Shankar Sharma
LTCG – now Door is opened. Nothing to say this will not increase in further – from 10% to 20% in future.
He sounded disappointed.
Said No Long Term Tax was incentive for investors to invest into equities... not any more
Oil may go further up.
Govt will have to revive other revenues.
That said my view remains extremely bullish. It's a global bull market and India will inevitably be part of the same.
EM in dollar terms still 6% lower than 2008.
India will atleast market perform.
I am optimistic.
Small cap will do very well.
LTCG was unwanted and uncalled for.

Jake's of Prime Securities
Long term is disincentive for equities.
Joy in hunting good cos.
Investment opportunities are still high.

Ajay from HK
Taxation door is opened.
FII flows very low last year compared to EMs.
FII investors not enthused by budget.
Global melt up quite visible.

Madhu Kela
Serious correction only can come from global markets.
LTCG won't trigger serious correction.
Don't think MF flows will slow down – my experience is
in 1st fall – retail investors buy –
only after serious 20% fall, domestic flows reverse.
Lot of cos seeing significant improvement.
Where is alternate to equities ??
TINA factors – this is something every one eluded to.
Don't think MF inflows will stop in hurry.
Some serious work done on make in India.
Mobile phone tax increased...zero to 10% for mother board - Compulsion to make manufacturing in India = GOOD for Many cos

Radhakishan Damani
His firm view --- GST collection will improve in next 3-4 months and tax collection will be significantly higher this year.
But he feels inflation will firm up further.
Personally insurance cover for poor is a good move.
There could be correction, but don’t expect a vertical fall.

Amal Parekh
I am still bullish
Let's see how markets react in immediate future (I shorted banks looking at sharp rise in yields).
Don't think flows will reverse so soon.
US has done helicopter money.
Earnings in US will come and so will be flows.

Navin Agarwal
Deal flow Is strong bcz valuations are very high.
Every promoter is looking to sell... even PEs are willing to sell.
So supply of paper will be very high.

Hiren Vaid
We are in PE expansion phase.
Long term trend positive.
But correction likely in near term.
Midcaps trading way to expensive to large caps.
Large caps will do better than midcaps in near term.

Dhruv (Biggest MF distributor)
Flows will continue unless there is a sharp correction.
Even in 2008 MF got money for 6 months
Tina factor... money moving from real estate to equities.
Global flows are going to be very strong.
Don't think inflows will stop.
Flows has not shifted from bond to equities.
Valuations are high.
Interest rates are moving up.

Kalpraj Dharamshi
Correction has started
People are under estimating this correction.

Alok (Technical guy)
Sell into rally is trading call.
It's going to be difficult to create cash from here onwards.

Ashwini
Bottom up lot of ideas.
Don't see big rally this year.
IT will make money.

Utpal
Bonds have taken a big hit.
Understating with SBI has done with northwards march of the rates – bulk deposit rates.
Falling inflation and interest rate is getting reversed.
Multiple contraction is possible.

Ramesh Damani
Tax collection buoyant.
I remain optimistic.
I don't see euphoria.
RJ too added – I don’t see socially any euphoria – no body comes to me asking to manage money.

Ramdeo Agrawal
I was disappointed with LTCG.
But Grandfathering of the same is a big relief.
See flat returns next 1 year.
Earnings will definitely grow
Bosch saying there is huge demand.

RJ
Investors under estimating political uncertainty.