J.P. Morgan - India Equity Strategy

National Elections schedule announced

· The Election Commission of India this morning announced the schedule for the National Elections. Polling for 543 Parliament seats, spread over 35 States and Union Territories will be conducted on nine dates, starting April 07 to May 12, 2014. (Detail schedule appended below). The counting will be held through May 16th (Friday) and results will be available by end of day. Note that exit polls and surveys can be published only after the polls are completed i.e. May 12 (Monday) evening onwards.

· The National Elections are logistically a herculean task given the number of voters involved across a vast land mass. About 815 m people are eligible to exercise their franchise in the 2014 elections (an increase of 100 m or 14%, over the 2009 elections). For details pertaining to the elections and arrangements made please refer to http://pib.nic.in/archieve/others/2014/mar/d2014030501.pdf.

· Following the announcement of the poll schedule, the model code-of-conduct sets in from today. The Election Commission’s code-of-conduct aims to ensure a level playing field between the contesting parties and candidates in elections. Consequently, important policy making, particularly those seen with a potential to influence the electorate, is discouraged.

· Opinion polls over the last six months have consistently predicted a lead and an improving one at that - but short of an outright victory - for the main opposition, the BJP led NDA coalition, over the ruling Congress led UPA coalition.

· Financial markets are looking forward to the elections with a lot of expectations. A decisive verdict leading to a Government with the ability to undertake significant reforms is seen as key to reversing India’s ongoing growth moderation and other macro stresses.

Table 1: Election schedule

Date of Poll	No. of States and Union Territories	No. of Parliamentary Constituencies
07.04.2014	2	6
09.04.2014	5	7
10.04.2014	14	92
12.04.2014	3	5
17.04.2014	13	122
24.04.2014	12	117
30.04.2014	9	89
07.05.2014	7	64
12.05.2014	3	41

Source: Election Commission of India

Table 2: Electoral trend: Male/ Female break up

		Male Electors		Female Electors
	Number of Electors	No.	% of Total Electors	No.	% of Total Electors
1996	592,572,288	309,815,776	52.3%	282,756,512	47.7%
1998	605,880,192	316,692,789	52.3%	289,187,403	47.7%
1999	619,536,847	323,813,667	52.3%	295,723,180	47.7%
2004	671,487,930	349,490,864	52.0%	321,997,066	48.0%
2009	716,985,101	374,758,801	52.3%	342,226,300	47.7%
2014	814,591,184	426,651,513	52.4%	387,911,330	47.6%

Source: Election Commission of India

Table 3: Distribution of the Indian Electorate across States and UTs

	Number of Electors	Number of Electors as % of Total Indian Electors
Andaman & Nicobar Islands	257,856	0.0%
Andhra Pradesh	62,385,949	7.7%
Arunachal Pradesh	753,216	0.1%
Assam	18,723,032	2.3%
Bihar	62,108,447	7.6%
Chandigarh	580,700	0.1%
Chhattisgarh	17,521,563	2.2%
Dadra & Nagar Haveli	188,783	0.0%
Daman & Diu	102,260	0.0%
Goa	1,043,304	0.1%
Gujarat	39,871,571	4.9%
Haryana	15,594,427	1.9%
Himachal Pradesh	4,674,187	0.6%
Jammu & Kashmir	6,933,118	0.9%
Jharkhand	19,948,683	2.4%
Karnataka	44,694,658	5.5%
Kerala	23,792,270	2.9%
Lakshadweep	47,972	0.0%
Madhya Pradesh	47,544,647	5.8%
Maharashtra	78,966,642	9.7%
Manipur	1,739,005	0.2%
Meghalaya	1,553,028	0.2%
Mizoram	696,448	0.1%
Nagaland	1,174,663	0.1%
NCT of Delhi	12,060,493	1.5%
Odisha	28,880,803	3.5%
Puducherry	885,458	0.1%
Punjab	19,207,230	2.4%
Rajasthan	42,559,543	5.2%
Sikkim	362,326	0.0%
Tamil Nadu	53,752,682	6.6%
Tripura	2,379,541	0.3%
Uttar Pradesh	134,351,297	16.5%
Uttarakhand	6,786,394	0.8%
West Bengal	62,468,988	7.7%
Total	814,591,184	100.0%

Source: Election Commission of India

Head of India Research and India Equity Strategist

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