28 June 2013

Kotak India Daily: Change in Reco - JSW Energy; Updates - Lupin, Energy, NBFCs, Economy

Change in Reco
JSW Energy: Tricky trade; upgrade to ADD from SELL
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Sensitivity to currency and coal prices remains high, stock reaction even sharper
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Merchant prices have softened on early onset of monsoons, may revive subsequently
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Upgrade to ADD noting sharp correction and favorable risk-reward
Company alerts
Lupin: Growth drivers in place
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Recent launches and visible pipeline offer comfort regarding US growth
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Domestic sales likely to be muted in the near term
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We maintain ADD, increase target price to Rs800 (from Rs760), raise FY2014E-15E EPS by 1%/4%
Sector alerts
Energy: Like the hike
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CCEA's decision to hike domestic gas prices; we expect US$8-10/mn BTU in medium term
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Big boost to earnings of OIL and ONGC
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Benefit to RIL could be meaningful, if gas production revives from current levels
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Impact on GAIL to depend on subsidy burden
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Manageable impact on power sector; higher urea subsidies to be offset by Government collections
NBFCs: Restrictions on private placement will affect financial flexibility
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RBI guidelines for debt private placement by NBFCs
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Time gap between issuances is a concern, in our view
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Lower yield on bonds than bank loans
Economy
Economy: CAD provides a breather but trend unlikely to continue
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CAD/GDP at 3.6% in 4QFY13; 4.8% in FY2013
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Capital flows have been supportive but downside risks are increasing
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External sector vulnerability reflected in the currency

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