29 May 2012

Energy: The first step? report by Kotak Sec PDF links


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http://www.kotaksecurities.com/pdf/indiadaily/indiadaily24052012.pdf


The first step? We see the sharp increase in petrol price by `7.5-8/liter (+11%), after
more than six months, as a positive step in reducing the burden on downstream oil
companies. We look forward to an increase in prices of diesel, LPG and kerosene in the
near term. The timing and quantum of price hikes are critical to reducing underrecoveries for FY2013E, which otherwise seem difficult to manage. The recent
correction in global crude oil price has been largely offset by a sharp depreciation in the
Rupee-Dollar exchange rate. Pricing action on regulated fuels may provide a trading
opportunity for OMCs in the near term but the ad-hoc nature of the entire subsidy
system precludes a long-term investment thesis.

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