03 March 2012

INDIAN ECONOMY: GDP Q3FY12 GDP growth came in at 6.1%, slowest in almost 3 years :: Kotak Securities (PDF Link)

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http://www.kotaksecurities.com/pdf/dmb/MorningInsight01032012.pdf



INDIAN ECONOMY: GDP
Q3FY12 GDP growth came in at 6.1%, slowest in almost 3
years
The Indian economy grew 6.1% in Q3FY12, slowing from 7.7% in Q1 and 6.9% in
Q2; slightly disappointing, in our view. GDP growth has come just a tad higher than
the lows of Lehman crisis in FY09. GDP in Q3FY12 based on current prices grew by
14.2% vs 16.1% in Q2FY12 (16.9% in Q3FY11). During first nine months of the fiscal, economy grew by 6.9% as against 8.1% in same period last year. However,
persistently high inflation and tight monetary policy weighed more negatively than
earlier envisaged on GDP growth. We expect Q4 to be slightly better and pencil in
moderate recovery in Q4FY12. Accordingly, we are staying with our earlier GDP
growthexpectation for current fiscal of around 7%.
We also retain our positive stance on FY13 GDP growth, penciling growth of about
7.5%, based on our expectation of lower inflation as well as lower interest rates in
next fiscal. We are hopeful that the budget may provide impetus for growth acceleration to print 8% plus GDP growth in FY13.


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