10 March 2012

Economy: USD/INR: A bumpy road ahead ::Kotak Securities, PDF link

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http://www.kotaksecurities.com/pdf/indiadaily/indiadaily09032012.pdf


Economy
Currency
USD/INR: A bumpy road ahead.  In our view, the recent appreciation of the Rupee
has run its course. We do not expect the recent pace of capital flows to be sustained
and we look for USD/INR to stabilize in the near term, averaging 50.50 in 4QFY12E. In
FY2013E, we look for a modest depreciation bias, based on our assessment of domestic
risks, contingent on global crude prices and the global economy. In FY2013, we expect
USD/INR to trade in the 49.00-52.00 range, averaging 50.50 from an average of 48.00
in FY2012E.

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