Strategy - Which way to turn(out)? Edelweiss pdf link

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In the first five phases of polling in UP elections (two phases are pending), the campaigning by major parties has been very hectic as stakes are high, although BJP seems to be losing some momentum. The highlight of the polling so far has been the record voter turnout, which history suggests, either favours the incumbent (if the prevailing perception is of good governance e.g., Bihar) or else it is a vote for change (e.g., West Bengal).

In UP, the latter seems to be more fitting, which in turn throws up two possibilities: (1) Congress improves its tally but lags behind SP; and (2) Congress gains massively, matching or surpassing SP’s strength. In the former, the SP-Congress alliance will form government in the state with SP strengthening the UPA at the centre. However, what we are worried about is the second option where Congress claims to form the government or otherwise goes for President’s rule, followed by elections shortly for a clear mandate. This will put at risk the prevalent hypothesis of SP supporting Congress at the Centre (replacing TMC) and reforms going through. Markets, surely, will not take it favourably.

Strategy - Which way to turn(out)?