Result Update: Marico, Manappuram General Finance, Tamilnadu Newsprint, Jubilant Life Sciences, GSK Consumer, KSK Energy:: Emkay

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Result Update

Marico Reco: ACCUMULATE CMP: Rs 163 Target Price: Rs 172 No Hiccups, Hereon, Maintain ACCUMULATE ·      Upbeat volume growth drives performance in Q3FY12; Revenue +29.4% yoy to Rs10.6 bn, Ebidta +22.1% yoy Rs1.2 bn and APAT +21% yoy Rs841 mn ·      Domestic business registered volume growth of 13% yoy and International business registered organic growth of 16% yoy ·      Shares optimistic outlook, Volume growth of 10-12% yoy in FY13E; Parachute at 8-10%, Saffola 14-16% and Hair Oils 20% ·      Forecast strong earnings performance in ensuing quarter, Retain FY13E earnings at Rs7.5/Share. Maintain ACCUMULATE rating with target price of Rs172/Share

Manappuram General Finance Reco: HOLD CMP: Rs 59 Target Price: Rs 65 Results inline; price led growth a concern ·      MAGFIL results inline with expectation with NII at Rs4.3bn and net profit at Rs1.6bn. The growth driven by strong advance growth and broadly stable NIM’s at 13% ·      AUM growth strong at 90%yoy supported by 63%yoy increase in customer base in commensurate with 53%yoy increase in branch network ·      Despite aggressive additions of 1345 branches over last  five quarters, the gold stock additions have seen consistent decline from 9.4MT/qtr to 4.3MT/qtr ·      MAGFIL continue to grow at a healthy pace, however sustainability of the same amid rising competition and any regulatory change in NPA recognition to 90dpd is under ques

Tamilnadu Newsprint Reco: ACCUMULATE CMP: Rs 93 Target Price: Rs 110 Disappointing results; trim estimates ·      Q3FY12 results disappointed due to lower sales volumes & higher input cost. Sales increased by 13%yoy  to Rs 3.1 bn. EBITDA margin declined by 700bps yoy/900bps qoq to 19.1% ·      TNPL reported adjusted loss of Rs 177mn against est of profit of Rs 22mn. APAT has been adjusted for EO gain of Rs 1bn (tax adjusted Rs 812mn) on forward currency contract. ·      Inventory builtup to the tune of ~60,000mt is a key concern which is likely to put pressure on near term realisations and EBITDA margins ·      Due to weak Q3FY12 results we have reduced our FY EPS est to Rs 1.3 (from Rs 9.1). On back of compelling valuations (40% discount to BV) we maintain Accumulate

Jubilant Life Sciences Reco: BUY CMP: Rs 177 Target Price: Rs 348 Debt remains a concern – Maintain Buy ·      Q3FY12 Results – Revenues at Rs10.9bn (up 25%YoY), b) EBITDA at Rs2.1bn (up 58% YoY) and c) APAT at Rs771mn (up 82% YoY) ·      Top-line growth and EBITDA margin expansion was led by strong traction in Generic business & favorable impact of INR depreciation, however debt increased by Rs4bn QoQ ·      Going forward, new capacity additions in pyridine & vitamin business, momentum in Cadista and +ve impact of currency will boost the top-line and the bottom-line ·      Strengthening INR will ease out debt concerns in next quarter – Maintain Buy with a target price of Rs348 (10xFY13E EV/EBITDA)

GSK Consumer Reco: ACCUMULATE CMP: Rs 2,637 Target Price: Rs 2,743 16% volume growth in Horlicks, Retain Accumulate ·      One-offs in A&P spends and Tax outgo impact performance, APAT growth curtailed to 11% yoy to Rs591 mn ·      Horlicks bounces back with volume growth of 16% yoy, but MFD volume growth of 12% yoy… ·      GSK has raised product prices by 8% on Boost portfolio effective December 2011 and 4% on Horlicks portfolio effective January 2012 ·      Maintain Earnings estimates for CY12E, Remains preferred play within 3 themes in Consumer sector, Maintain ‘ACCUMULATE’ with target price of Rs 2,743

KSK Energy Reco: HOLD CMP: Rs 72 Target Price: Rs 75 Improvement in coal supplies; maintain hold ·      3Q12 PAT of Rs755mn above exp. driven by i) fuel cost (-7% qoq) and ii) other income (+57% qoq). Linkage coal supply better for Wardha/Arasmeta I. Issues continued with Arasmeta II (no fuel) and Sitapuram ·      Co. confident of getting 70-75% linkage coal for Wardha in 4Q vs 60% in 3Q, resulting in fuel cost of Rs2.4-2.5/unit vs 3Q at Rs2.9/unit. Have factored Rs2.9/unit fuel cost in FY13 for Wardha, would wait for 4Q to change our assumption ·      Open access received for Wardha, co. in process of signing BPTA. Captive power supplies to start from Mar12. PPAs at 10-20% discount to ind. grid power rates in Maharashtra ·      Were expecting run up post 2Q, on attractive valuations & better 3Q. But, CMP prices in (1) ~50-60% linkage coal for Wardha & (2) Mahanadi I. Maintain Hold; Upside triggers - (1) 60% + linkage coal for Wardha & (2) alternative block