25 February 2012

25 Feb: Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)

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Edelweiss Technical Reflection (ETR)
Nifty traded choppily in a narrow range of 77 points for the day after previous day’s sharp decline. The index ended with a marginal loss of 0.40% and importantly below the 5500 psychological mark. However, it has managed to hold above the ‘rising gap’ area of 5460-5428 as well as the 10 day EMA at 5471. The steep upward sloping trend channel has been breached and the index is likely to trade lower in the short-term towards the 21 day EMA that also coincides with the broader trend channel base at 5355. Momentum oscillators have rolled bearish, with the daily MACD giving a sell crossover. Turnover for the expiry day was relatively lower and the market breadth remained in favour of declines with an A/D ratio of 1:2. The index is most likely to close in the red for the week, snapping the seven week uptrend suggesting a retracement of the rally. The short-term the trend has turned lower for targets of 5355 (21 DEMA) and 5250 (14-month falling trend line re-test). Traders should use any rallies to initiate trading stops with stop-loss above 5575.

Most of the sectoral indices ended in the negative with the exception of FMCG (+0.82%), Power (+0.64%) and Oil & Gas (+0.35%). The prominent losing sectors were Realty (-2.46%), Metals (-1.41%) and Auto (-0.79%). Among the broader market, the Mid-cap and Small-cap indexes underperformed their frontline peer with loss of -0.55% and -0.91% respectively.

Bullish Setups: ONGC, BHEL, INFY, PWGR, HPCL
Bearish Setups: TATA, STER, AXSB

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