06 January 2012

Media: Q3FY12 Results Preview INDIA : Centrum

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Slowdown to impact growth
In the backdrop of economic slowdown, media
companies are expected to report negative growth with
TV broadcasters being worst hit followed by radio and
print. Margins are expected to contract across
broadcasters and print companies while PAT will
de-grow by 9.9% YoY across our coverage universe. We
expect negative surprises across companies.
􀂁 Slowdown to impact growth: In the backdrop of
economic slowdown across sectors, festive season
remained lacklustre for the companies with ad revenues
coming under pressure. We believe TV broadcasters are the
worst hit during the quarter followed by radio and print
companies. We are expecting a de-growth in ad revenue for
ZEEL and ENIL while Sun TV Network is expected to show
flat growth. Print companies are expected to post ~10-13%
ad revenue growth during the quarter.
􀂁 Subscription revenues to grow marginally: ZEEL is
expected to post marginal growth sequentially in
subscription revenues whereas Sun TV’s analog
subscription revenues are expected to de-grow, though
DTH revenues of both companies are expected to post
robust growth. However, Dish TV is facing challenges on
subscriber additions post festive season.
􀂁 Margins under pressure: Margins are expected to shrink
396bps YoY for our coverage companies. Both print &
broadcasting companies are expected to report margin
contraction. ENIL, Info Edge and Dish TV are expected to
register the maximum rise in margins.
􀂁 Profits to decline: PAT for our coverage universe is
expected to de-grow by 9.9% YoY. However, sequentially,
it is expected to register 4% growth. The print sector is
expected to outperform the broadcasting sector due to
higher ad revenue growth. The base effect is also
expected to impact broadcasting companies.
􀂁 Equal weight on the sector: We maintain Buy on Sun TV,
Jagran Prakashan, ENIL, ZEEL and HT Media. We have a
Hold on Balaji Telefilms and Sell on Info Edge.

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