08 April 2011

Commodities Comment Aus Coal on the mend from 1Q loss :: Macquarie Research

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Commodities Comment
Aus Coal on the mend from 1Q loss
Feature article
 With trade data released up to February and shipping data for March, we can
now make a more educated guess at the loss of coal exports due to the floods
in Queensland and how much they may bounce back in 2Q. We think
additional supply of met coal will be absorbed by the market near today’s high
prices, although additional thermal coal seems likely to weaken in order to
entice demand from Chinese buyers.

Buy BHEL:: FY11 provisional results above expectations:: CLSA

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FY11 provisional results above expectations
BHEL’s FY11 adjusted revenues and profits increased by 20% and 33% YoY and
came 1% and 5% ahead of our estimates. This is primarily on account of material
and employee costs being lower than estimates and higher than expected other
income. BHEL met its orderflow guidance, despite delays in award of some large
contracts and has guided for 10% increase in orders in FY12. These results
demonstrate BHEL’s ability to sustain strong orderflow and avoid margin pressures
despite competition from Chinese and domestic suppliers. Maintain BUY.

GAIL India- Expect strong 4Q operational profit growth :: Macquarie Research,

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GAIL India
Expect strong 4Q operational profit growth
Event
 We expect GAIL to post a strong 18% QoQ increase in 4QFY11E earnings
from operations. Volume growth and margin expansion shall drive both gas
transmission and petrochemical division earnings. However, it’s reported
profits may be flat as past dues may double its oil subsidy burden. We
maintain OP with TP of Rs573, and reiterate GAIL as one of our top picks

Weekly US oil data -Demand response, or not yet? Macquire

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Weekly US oil data
Demand response, or not yet?
Oil prices ratcheted higher on the back of another interruption to Atlantic Basin sweet
crude oil supplies late last week (a strike in Gabon was to blame this time). Brent
futures rallied into the US$120s on Monday and have held on to gains – despite the
quick return of cargoes from Gabon. Sellers are in short supply. Risks still stack up
to the upside – and the strength of the Brent futures contango shows that
commercial players agree. So the question becomes, once again, at what price will
we see demand growth erode? In the US at least the answer seems to be obvious:
US$4 per gallon is what the consensus is happy to subscribe to. Indeed the latest
weekly data suggest that this is correct.
Gasoline weakness?
The data on inventory and crude oil imports remain relatively constructive, but the
bears amongst us have been picking up on the steadily deteriorating gasoline
demand picture in the weekly numbers. We remain sceptical for broadly two
reasons. One, the overwhelming majority of economic and consumer data suggest
more people have jobs and more people are spending more than was the case a
year ago. Second, the latest batch of good data, covering January, suggest gasoline
demand rose in all areas of the US, except the northeast – where record snowfall
impeded travel for almost the entire month, and where gasoline demand was down
5% y/y. In short, we think prices are not yet high enough to curb oil demand in the
world's biggest and most sensitive market.
Top three numbers in today’s weekly US oil data
 Crude oil inventories add +2.0mbs – Cushing, OK levels unchanged, but
remain at a record high.
 Downstream stocks drew lower, -1.7mbs, resuming the downward trend. Total
product inventories have dropped in 7 of the last 8 weeks.
 Demand growth remains weak at +0.1% (four week MA, y/y), dragged lower by
transport fuels.

Macquarie Agri-view --US acreage report is bullish new crop cotton

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Macquarie Agri-view
US acreage report is bullish new crop
cotton
Feature article
 New crop cotton futures have resumed their upward trend on the back of last
week’s bullish USDA acreage report. Prior to the report, trade estimates for
US cotton acres averaged 13.5m vs our estimate of 13m. The USDA
surprised the market with a number of just 12.57m acres, much lower than
expected and prompting the new crop (Dec 11) cotton futures to rally. Given
that there are already concerns about yields due to dry planting conditions,
this acreage number will provide little comfort that US cotton supplies will
expand sufficiently to meet still-robust global mill demand. Prices should
accordingly be subject to upside price risks in the short term.

Bullish on tight iron ore supply, steel demand more difficult ::Macquarie Research,

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China Commodity Call
Bullish on tight iron ore supply, steel
demand more difficult
􀂃 We have continued to spend time actively engaging with market participants
throughout the ferrous metal supply chain. We remain very positive on iron
ore, with some of the feedback from meetings suggesting a sharp rise in
Indian costs and even more pressure on supply. However, we are still a little
cautious on steel demand. Although traders and end-users have not been
overtly negative, there are no expectations for a rapid upturn in the pace of
transactions in the near future.

JSW Steel -Catalysts on the cards :target: Rs1,200 :Macquarie Research,

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JSW Steel
Catalysts on the cards
Event
 4Q results poised to be best ever: We believe that JSW is well on track to
deliver its best results in Q4, and that there are a few more catalysts to watch
out for. Our earnings estimates stand 12% above the street without any
upsides from Chile iron ore and US coking coal. We believe that the stock has
already bottomed out and is interestingly poised. Maintain Outperform.

CLSA:: Buy eClerx -Analyst meet takeaways; target Rs820

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Analyst meet takeaways
At the analyst meet, eClerx exuded confidence in near to medium term
revenue growth prospects. eClerx also asserted that inorganic growth will
not be targeted at the expense of margins. High client concentration
remains a risk and is unlikely to change for now. That said, eClerx
remains focused on growing the long tail of clients. Margin management
remains a priority and wage inflation pressures notwithstanding, eClerx
believes that current margin levels are sustainable. A 33% earnings Cagr
over FY10-13, 40%+ROE and a 50%+ dividend pay-out supports our
target price of Rs820, which is based on 14x FY13CL diluted earnings

FII & DII trading activity on NSE and BSE as on 08-Apr-2011

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FII trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment
The following is combined FII trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by FIIs on 08-Apr-2011.
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
FII08-Apr-20112688.692303.84384.85
 
Domestic Institutional Investors trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment
The following is combined Domestic Institutional Investors trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by Banks, DFIs, Insurance, MFs and New Pension System on 08-Apr-2011.
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDateBuy ValueSell ValueNet Value
DII08-Apr-2011982.971111.37-128.4
 


--

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 08-Apr-2011

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FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 08-Apr-2011 
 BUYSELLOPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY 
 No. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in CroresNo. of contractsAmt in Crores 
INDEX FUTURES456341339.95727602128.3357399816799.41-788.37
INDEX OPTIONS1829315269.961391394039.38150366343707.831230.58
STOCK FUTURES423851112.16613661672.69118158031038.03-560.54
STOCK OPTIONS8583242.488581240.4216818465.852.06
      Total-116.28
 


-- 

08-Apr-2011; NSE, Bulk deals,

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Symbol
Security Name
Client Name
Buy / Sell
Quantity Traded
Wght. Avg. 
Price
CRESTANI
Crest Animation Studios L
WALL STREET CAPITAL MKT PVT LT
SELL
1,19,776
79.45
CREWBOS
Crew B.O.S. Products Limi
SAL REAL ESTATES (P) LTD
BUY
81,769
115.89
FIRSTWIN
First Winner Industries L
ELDORADO BIOTECH PVT LTD
SELL
2,80,000
22.39
GLORY
Glory Polyfilms Limited
PLANET INVESTMENTS & FINANCE PVT LTD
BUY
500
4.06
GLORY
Glory Polyfilms Limited
PLANET INVESTMENTS & FINANCE PVT LTD
SELL
3,16,912
4.05
LOVABLE
Lovable Lingerie Ltd
CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.
BUY
84,679
285.34
LOVABLE
Lovable Lingerie Ltd
CROSSEAS CAPITAL SERVICES PVT. LTD.
SELL
87,249
286.29

8/4/2011, BSE, Bulk deals,

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Scrip Code
Company
Client Name
Deal Type *
Quantity
Price **
531160
Arcadia Merc
ANAND CREDIT LIMITED
B
50000
59.75
531591
Bampsl Sec
KAUSHALAYA GARG
B
988321
4.13
531591
Bampsl Sec
KAUSHALAYA GARG
S
872036
4.15
531591
Bampsl Sec
CHETAN KHANDELWAL
S
550280
4.13
530095
Bhagwandas Met
CENTURY CBASE PVT LTD
B
148762
5.48
530095
Bhagwandas Met
DECCAN FINANCIAL SERVICES PVT LTD
S
151962
5.47
522292
Chandni Tex
ARISTO MEDIA AND ENTERTAINMENT PRIVATE LIMITEDARISTO MEDIA AND EN
B
96386
47.07