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Weekly US oil data
Demand response, or not yet?
Oil prices ratcheted higher on the back of another interruption to Atlantic Basin sweet
crude oil supplies late last week (a strike in Gabon was to blame this time). Brent
futures rallied into the US$120s on Monday and have held on to gains – despite the
quick return of cargoes from Gabon. Sellers are in short supply. Risks still stack up
to the upside – and the strength of the Brent futures contango shows that
commercial players agree. So the question becomes, once again, at what price will
we see demand growth erode? In the US at least the answer seems to be obvious:
US$4 per gallon is what the consensus is happy to subscribe to. Indeed the latest
weekly data suggest that this is correct.
Gasoline weakness?
The data on inventory and crude oil imports remain relatively constructive, but the
bears amongst us have been picking up on the steadily deteriorating gasoline
demand picture in the weekly numbers. We remain sceptical for broadly two
reasons. One, the overwhelming majority of economic and consumer data suggest
more people have jobs and more people are spending more than was the case a
year ago. Second, the latest batch of good data, covering January, suggest gasoline
demand rose in all areas of the US, except the northeast – where record snowfall
impeded travel for almost the entire month, and where gasoline demand was down
5% y/y. In short, we think prices are not yet high enough to curb oil demand in the
world's biggest and most sensitive market.
Top three numbers in today’s weekly US oil data
Crude oil inventories add +2.0mbs – Cushing, OK levels unchanged, but
remain at a record high.
Downstream stocks drew lower, -1.7mbs, resuming the downward trend. Total
product inventories have dropped in 7 of the last 8 weeks.
Demand growth remains weak at +0.1% (four week MA, y/y), dragged lower by
transport fuels.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Weekly US oil data
Demand response, or not yet?
Oil prices ratcheted higher on the back of another interruption to Atlantic Basin sweet
crude oil supplies late last week (a strike in Gabon was to blame this time). Brent
futures rallied into the US$120s on Monday and have held on to gains – despite the
quick return of cargoes from Gabon. Sellers are in short supply. Risks still stack up
to the upside – and the strength of the Brent futures contango shows that
commercial players agree. So the question becomes, once again, at what price will
we see demand growth erode? In the US at least the answer seems to be obvious:
US$4 per gallon is what the consensus is happy to subscribe to. Indeed the latest
weekly data suggest that this is correct.
Gasoline weakness?
The data on inventory and crude oil imports remain relatively constructive, but the
bears amongst us have been picking up on the steadily deteriorating gasoline
demand picture in the weekly numbers. We remain sceptical for broadly two
reasons. One, the overwhelming majority of economic and consumer data suggest
more people have jobs and more people are spending more than was the case a
year ago. Second, the latest batch of good data, covering January, suggest gasoline
demand rose in all areas of the US, except the northeast – where record snowfall
impeded travel for almost the entire month, and where gasoline demand was down
5% y/y. In short, we think prices are not yet high enough to curb oil demand in the
world's biggest and most sensitive market.
Top three numbers in today’s weekly US oil data
Crude oil inventories add +2.0mbs – Cushing, OK levels unchanged, but
remain at a record high.
Downstream stocks drew lower, -1.7mbs, resuming the downward trend. Total
product inventories have dropped in 7 of the last 8 weeks.
Demand growth remains weak at +0.1% (four week MA, y/y), dragged lower by
transport fuels.
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