Macquarie Research, Fund Flow Tracker Firm finish to a strong year in Asia

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Fund Flow Tracker
Firm finish to a strong year
Local Exchange Data: Ending 2010 on a strong note
 Taiwan and Korea continue to attract foreign buyers. Over the past week,
each of the six MSCI Asia ex-Japan markets where weekly foreign equity
purchase data is available (i.e. Korea, Taiwan, India, Thailand, Indonesia and
the Philippines) recorded net-positive foreign buying. In aggregate, net-buying
increased 74% WoW to US$1.6 bn vs. US$920mn the week before. This
continues to be driven by stronger buying in Taiwan of US$724 mn (up 53%
WoW), with sustained buying in Korea of US$520mn as well.

Glenmark Pharmaceuticals- Felodipine ER – lucrative opportunity: Macquarie

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Glenmark Pharmaceuticals
Felodipine ER – lucrative opportunity
Event
 Glenmark recently launched Felodipine ER (Plendil) in US post US FDA
approval. The opportunity is lucrative, given limited competition (3 players).

Macquarie Research, Asia:: Stronger growth and policy tightening

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What you may have missed
Stronger growth and policy tightening
Summary
 This note provides a quick review of the key economic developments over the
past couple of weeks. Data releases have generally been strong, supporting
the idea that the pace of recovery re-accelerated in late 2010. Reflecting the
stronger growth figures, policy tightening has continued, in the form of interest
rate hikes and capital controls, although benign inflation readings mean the
pace is unhurried.

Macquarie Research, Fund Flow Tracker -North by Northeast

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Fund Flow Tracker
North by Northeast
Local Exchange Data: Northward shift continues
􀂃 Sustained buying in Taiwan and Korea. Although foreign net-buying slowed
during the week ending December 22 for the aggregate of six Asia ex-Japan
markets where high-frequency local exchange data is available – to US$920m
vs. US$1.69bn the week before – a rotation into Northeast Asia (Korea and
Taiwan) remains evident.

Macquarie Research, Weekly US oil data Constructive again

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Weekly US oil data
Constructive again
We think this morning’s DoE weekly oil report was constructive because it effectively
affirmed the two bullish mini-trends introduced last week:
􀂃 One, US crude oil balances are tightening in a seasonal way, though faster than
normal: Crude oil imports are trending lower. Crude oil inventory is falling very fast
– especially on the US Gulf Coast, where refinery runs remain quite high.

Macquarie Research, 2010 spot iron ore average up 84% YoY

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Commodities Comment
2010 spot iron ore average up 84% YoY
Latest news
 The Macquarie Commodities Team would like to wish all our readers a happy
and prosperous 2011.
 Base metals ended the year strongly, with all closing higher in Friday trading.
Over the week, lead (+6%) and zinc (+7%) showed largest gains. LME
copper stocks ended the year at 377,550t, 24.9% below end-2009 levels.
Meanwhile, The Steel Index 62% CFR China iron ore assessment finished the
year at $170.1/t, leaving the 2010 average at $147.0/t, up 84% YoY.

3QFY2011 Sensex earnings outlook; and Sector Outlook: Angel Broking,

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3QFY2011 Sectoral Outlook (CLICK on sector to get details)

Automobile

Banking

Capital Goods

Cement

FMCG

Infrastructure

Logistics

Metals

Oil & Gas

Pharmaceutical

Power/ Utilities

Real Estate

Retail

Software

Telecom

Telecom: 3QFY2011 (December Quarter) Sector Outlook: Angel Broking

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Telecom
During 3QFY2011, almost all telecom stocks slumped, with
Bharti Airtel (Airtel), Reliance Communication (RCOM) and Idea
dropping off by 2.5%, 13.7% and 6.2%, respectively. These
stocks were set on fire by the report issued by the CAG. As per
the report:
(1) 85/122 new licenses issued in 2008 did not fulfill the
eligibility criteria

Software: 3QFY2011 (December Quarter) Sector Outlook: Angel Broking

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Software
Broad-based growth continues to cheer the IT pack
The aggregate US macro data for November 2010 points
towards a sustained recovery going ahead. The positive cues
for November 2010 include 1) capacity utilisation firming up
to 75.2% v/s 74.9% in October 2010; 2) industrial production
holding at 5.4% v/s 5.5% in October 2010; 3) retail sales
continuing to grow at 7.7% yoy in November 2010; 4) personal
income growth sustaining the momentum of 3.8% yoy; and 5)
durable goods order growth expanding to 10.4% yoy
v/s 9.3% yoy in October 2010. Also, in December 2010, the

Retail: 3QFY2011 (December Quarter) Sector Outlook: Angel Broking

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Retail
As against the mild recovery seen in the global economy, the
Indian economy has shown good growth on account of strong
government spend, low dependence on exports and rising
consumerism in India. The Indian economy has steadily
recovered to pre-2007 levels and economists across the board
expect GDP growth of around 9% levels for the next decade.
The Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) is expected
to reach about $1trn (`5,000,000cr) by CY2020. Key growth
drivers for the same include investments in infrastructure by the
government and private sector, which would propel earning
power of the Indian consumer. Rising income levels are likely to
boost consumption in the country and in turn lend a boost to
the modern retail trade. Thus, investments are likely to boost
consumption and vice-versa is also likely to be true.

Real Estate: 3QFY2011 (December Quarter) Sector Outlook: Angel Broking

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Real Estate
For 3QFY2011, we expect residential volumes to report flat to
moderate growth on a sequential basis on account of festive
demand. Revenue of real estate companies will be largely driven
by execution of existing projects and new launches. Companies
such as DLF and Unitech (through UCP) will continue to see
sustainability in office leasing volumes on a sequential basis.
Banks have tightened lending norms in line with the RBI’s
mandate that loan to value (LTV) should not exceed 80%, which
may marginally impact housing demand in the short term.

Power/ Utilities: 3QFY2011 (December Quarter) Sector Outlook: Angel Broking

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Power
For 3QFY2011, we expect power-generating companies in our
universe to report top-line growth of 15.3% yoy, driven by
capacity additions and higher tariffs. However, operating profits
are expected to decline by 12.3% on account of higher fuel
costs. Net profit is expected to fall by 6.5% yoy.

Pharmaceutical: 3QFY2011 (December Quarter) Sector Outlook: Angel Broking

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Pharmaceutical


Pharma sector back in the limelight
During 3QFY2011, the BSE healthcare (HC) index outperformed
the BSE Sensex after underperforming during 2QFY2011-the
first quarter of underperformance in 2010. The HC index surged
by handsome 10.3% as against a flat closing of the Sensex.
With markets nearing 21,000, increased risk-aversion led to
the sector's outperformance.

Oil & Gas: 3QFY2011 (December Quarter) Sector Outlook: Angel Broking

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Oil & Gas
Prices mix, margins firm
In 3QFY2011, crude oil price stood firm (hitting 27-month high)
at US $80-90/bbl. While natural gas price, which weakened
during the later part of 2QFY2011, continued its weak trend in
the first half of 3QFY2011 before showing some recovery in
the second half of 3QFY2011. However, petchem margins
improved. Refining margins were also higher sequentially due
to improvement in heating oil and naphtha cracks.

Metals: 3QFY2011 (December Quarter) Sector Outlook: Angel Broking

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Metals


During 3QFY2011, steel prices remained muted on a qoq basis,
as appreciating INR led to price cuts in November, reversing
October gains; but later in December, companies hiked steel
prices by `500/tonne. Base metal prices also witnessed huge
volatility during the quarter; however, prices increased by
11-19% qoq due to Chinese production cuts and US Treasury
commitment to buy US $600bn treasury securities.
During 3QFY2011, the BSE metals index outperformed the
Sensex by 2.1% and gained 4.3% in absolute terms. A series of
industry and corporate events took place during the quarter,
which dictated the direction of few stocks. In the ferrous space,
Tata Steel topped the charts, outperforming the Sensex by 2.2%,
on account of Rio bidding for Riversdale, in which Tata Steel
holds a 24% stake. SAIL underperformed the Sensex by 13.2%
on reports that its FPO price would be at lower levels. Sesa
Goa underperformed the Sensex by 1.9%, while NMDC
outperformed by 4.3%. On the non-ferrous front, Hindustan
Zinc, Hindalco and Sterlite outperformed the Sensex by 24.1%,
22.8% and 9.6%, respectively, on account of higher LME prices.

Logistics: 3QFY2011 (December Quarter) Sector Outlook: Angel Broking

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For 3QFY2011, we expect Concor and Gateway Distripark
(GDL) to report strong revenue growth of 11.6% and 10.7%
yoy respectively, on the back of healthy volume growth in the
Exim segment following inventory build-up ahead of the festive
season both domestically as well as abroad. We expect Allcargo
Global Logistics (AGL) to post robust revenue growth of 25.7%
yoy on a low base and consistently improving ECU Line numbers.
Operating margins are expected to remain stable for our
coverage universe. While Concor and GDL are expected to
report moderate PAT growth of 6.9% and 4.8% yoy respectively,
we expect AGL's PAT to spike 61.5% yoy on a low base and
moderate appreciation (2.6%) of rupee vis-à-vis the euro
during the quarter. Overall, we expect a 16.0% and 24.4% yoy
increase in revenue and PAT respectively, for our coverage
universe.

Infrastructure: 3QFY2011 (December Quarter) Sector Outlook: Angel Broking

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Infrastructure


We expect the infrastructure sector to post decent numbers -
especially on the top-line front - for 3QFY2011 as the
construction activity picks up in the second half of the year.

FMCG: 3QFY2011 (December Quarter) Sector Outlook: Angel Broking

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FMCG


For 3QFY2011, we expect our FMCG universe to post steady
top-line growth of 20% yoy aided by robust volumes and
selective price hikes. While a buoyant economy, increased
demand owing to the festive season and sustained ad-spends
are expected to drive volumes, the impact of selective price
hikes taken by the companies in 2QFY2011 will also be felt
during the quarter under review. Godrej Consumer (GCPL) is
expected to post the highest top-line growth this quarter albeit
on a low base aided by the revenue traction from its recent
acquisitions. GSK Consumer (GSKCHL), Asian Paints, Dabur
and Marico are also expected to post strong top-line growth
for the quarter.

Cement: 3QFY2011 (December Quarter) Sector Outlook: Angel Broking

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Cement


Dispatches up 7.5% yoy
In 3QFY2011, all-India dispatches grew 7.5% yoy compared
to the 3.7% yoy growth recorded in 2QFY2011. Dispatches
increased by a robust 18.5% yoy in October 2010 due to the
cessation of monsoons and on account of inventory build-up in
anticipation of price hikes by the dealers. However, the
momentum could not be sustained in November due to labour
shortage on account of the festive and harvest seasons, decline
in demand from the infrastructure sector and unavailability of
sand in the southern region due to heavy rainfalls. Going ahead,
we do not expect a major growth in dispatches over the next
few months due to the high base effect in the northern region
and continuing political instability in the southern region.
However, the central and western regions are expected to
perform slightly better due to increase in government spending
on infrastructure.

Capital Goods: 3QFY2011 (December Quarter) Sector Outlook: Angel Broking

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Capital Goods


Capital Goods Index - Lagging behind
The current quarter saw narrowing of premium valuations in
the capital goods (CG) sector vis-à-vis the Sensex. While majority
of the sector specific indices reported positive growth, the CG
index ended 3QFY2011 down 3.6% and underperformed the
Sensex by 5.8%. Valuation consistently drifted during the first
two months of the quarter under review before marginally
recovering during December 2010. The quarter also witnessed
high volatility in the reported numbers for the Index of Industrial
Production (IIP) and CG production. Despite underperforming
the broad-based Sensex for a major portion of the quarter,
valuations of front-line stocks in the CG index continue to trade
at a premium to the Sensex.

Banking: 3QFY2011 (December Quarter) Sector Outlook: Angel Broking

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Banking


Stock performance
During the first two months of 3QFY2011, banking stocks
performed in line with the broader markets on the back of good
2QFY2011 results and continuance of healthy credit demand.
However, in December 2010, banking stocks underperformed
the broader indices due to negative newsflows (related to the
bribes-for-loan scam, telecom-related and MFI exposures of a
few banks) as well as margin worries (expected NIM pressures
due to aggressive deposit rate hikes). Consequently, by the end
of the quarter, the BSE Bankex was down 4.6% sequentially,
underperforming the Sensex by 6.8%. Most banking stocks under
our coverage universe declined in line with the correction in
other banking stocks. Within our coverage universe, IOB gave
the highest returns of 10.8% sequentially, followed by Dena
Bank and ICICI Bank with gains of 9.6% and 3.1%, respectively.

Automobile: 3QFY2011 (December Quarter) Sector Outlook: Angel Broking

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For 3QFY2011, we expect our auto universe to post a strong
net sales growth of ~27% yoy, aided by robust ~26% yoy volume
growth (due to increased production by most players to meet
high festive demand) across product segments. Revenue growth
is expected to be led by Maruti (strong domestic volume offtake
due to the festival season), Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M, robust
tractor sales due to the festive season and post-harvesting
period), Hero Honda (HH, healthy volume growth) and Bajaj
Auto (BAL, increased capacity and low base effect). We expect
Ashok Leyland (ALL) to emerge as a laggard in terms of revenue
growth as commercial vehicle (CV) sales moderated during the
quarter due to pre-buying ahead of emission norm changes
from October 2010 and production constraints of
BS III vehicles. For most companies, the focus continues to be
on volume growth. Going ahead, near-term volume growth
would be tapered off due to the high base effect of 2HFY2010
and an increase in financing cost; while in the long run, we
expect sales momentum to continue, aided by healthy consumer
sentiment, rising income levels, easy availability of finance and
success of new product launches.

2011 Top Picks: Anagram: Growth Momentum to Continue

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Top Picks for 2011 (click on company name for report)

C & C Construction

Supreme Infrastructure (India)

Diamond Power Infrastructure

Glenmark Pharmaceuticals

J B Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals

IL&FS Investment Managers

Balkrishna Industries

(click on company name above for report)


Growth Momentum to Continue ....

Balkrishna Industries: 2011 Top Picks: Anagram

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Balkrishna Industries Ltd.


Balkrishna Ind has presence in niche Off-the highway (OHT) Tyre
market and majorly exports farm, construction and mining tyres.
Leveraging on the structural benefit the company is expanding
its capacity by 90% by 2013 and it has sufficient headroom to
increase prices and maintain margins which will have minimal
risk on cash flows and capex plans. Company has delivered
superior performance in past with 30% earnings CAGR over past
5 years and average ROE of 27%.

J B Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals: 2011 Top Picks: Anagram

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J B Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals



Ready to Storm the Domestic Market
J B Chem as a part of its future strategy to accelerate growth in the
domestic market, expects increased sales through key brands focus and
strengthening its presence in the rural market, it also plans to increase
its field force from 450 to around 800 by the end of this fiscal and to
2000 by end of next financial year. With these initiatives taken by the
company it is expected to clock a CAGR of 19% over FY10-13E, above
the industry growth rate of 13-15% and strengthen its position in the
domestic market.

Glenmark Pharmaceuticals: 2011 Top Picks: Anagram

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Glenmark Pharmaceuticals



Strong Core business growth to support earning momentum
Glenmark over the last few quarters has seen a revival in the financials
driven by the strong growth in its core business with healthy growth
coming in from across all the geographic segments of the company. Our
conservative estimate sees a CAGR of 19% over the next 3 years in its
base business driven by the sustained high growth in the domestic
formulation segment and turnaround of the US operations owing to the
flurry of ANDA approvals (14 approvals from Apr-Dec 2010) and niche
product launches. Further glenmark is expected to record a CAGR of
28% over FY10-13E in the other markets where it is present considering
the company’s significant investments in these markets and expected
high growth in the Latin American market and other Semi-Regulated
markets.

Diamond Power Infrastructure: 2011 Top Picks: Anagram

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Diamond Power Infrastructure

Diamond power infra is the only EPC player with major captive
facilities (80% of the project cost) which gives the company an
advantage (higher margins & lesser volatility, lower cost of carry)
over other EPC player who outsources 60 to 70% of the project
work. With adequate liquidity in place, and experience in T&D
over years DPIL will be able to monetise on $100 bn spend in
T&D sector. Moreover company has not only targeted to increase
top-line but has made constant efforts to improve and sustain
margins through backward integration (Conductors, EPC and
cables).

Supreme Infrastructure (India): 2011 Top Picks: Anagram

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Supreme Infrastructure (India) Ltd


We initiate coverage on Supreme Infrastructure (India) Ltd (SIIL)
with FY12 end target price of Rs 343 per share i.e. 38% upside
from the current market price. Our SOTP based target price
incorporates Rs 319 per share value of the core EPC business
where it enjoys higher than industry operating margins of around
17%, Rs 20.4 per share from its Manor Wada Bhiwandi road BOT
project which is expected to be benefitted from the commercial
/ industrial belt along the highway and Rs 3.8 per share value
from its Kasheli Bridge BOT project where it is sharing 10% of
the total revenue.

C & C Construction : 2011 Top Picks: Anagram

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C & C Construction


C & C Construction is a Gurgaon based infrastructure developer
providing engineering, procurement and construction services in
India and Afghanistan. While historically the company has focused
on projects in roads and highways, it has lately diversified into
power transmission, water & sanitation and commercial buildings.
In India the company mainly works for various state and central
authorities like NHAI, PWD Punjab, AAI etc.

IL&FS Investment Managers: 2011 Top Picks: Anagram

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IL&FS Investment Managers Ltd

First Mover Advantage
The company is reaping the benefits of first mover advantage in the
space of infrastructure focused fund that was introduced in 1996.
Recognizing the latent potential and investment needs of the real estate
sector, it took initiative in bringing private equity in real estate in 2005.
The company is the first to structure participation of Foreign Institutions
in the PE framework.

Religare: Banking Strong quarter amid rising risks

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Banking
Strong quarter amid rising risks
We expect strong NII growth for banks under our coverage supported by a low
base of Q3FY10, strong credit growth and year-on-year NIMs improvement.
However, PAT growth would be relatively lower due to increased operating
expenses and provisions. NIMs are expected to decline from Q2FY11 levels
though the downside would likely be capped by asset re-pricing. Slippages could
remain high (particularly for PSU banks) and hence, we are factoring in higher
provisioning expenses. We are also building in higher operating costs stemming
from provisions towards second pension liabilities. We remain positive on the
sector in the long term and continue to prefer banks with a superior liability
franchise. Our top picks are State Bank of India (SBIN), Bank of Baroda (BOB)
and Axis Bank (AXSB) among large caps and Dena Bank (DBNK) among mid caps.
Key risks to our call are a sharp rise in inflation and negative surprises on asset
quality and pension liabilities.

IDFC research: PSU Banks - Downgrade to Underperformer

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Flattening yield curve and tight liquidity….: PSU banks are bond proxies and hence underperform when G-sec yields harden. 10-year yields had touched 8.2%, up ~30bp over the past month, led by government borrowing programme and tight liquidity. Liquidity has remained scant despite RBI's soothing measures (as second LAF, de-facto SLR cut, etc). We expect it to remain stretched in the next few months due to the following: i) uptick in credit offtake in the busy season; ii) low government spending (further exacerbated by the recent newsflow); iii) advance tax outflow (~Rs550bn) end-December.

Grey Market Premiums continue to dip for IPOs- 5 Jan 2011

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Company Name	Offer Price	Premium
	(Rs.)	(Rs.)
Shekhawati Poly Yarn	30 (Fixed)	0.5 to 1
C. Mahendra Export	95 to 110	2 to 3
Midvalley entertainment	64 to 70	4 to 5

FII & DII trading activity on NSE and BSE as on 05-Jan-2011

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FII trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment

The following is combined FII trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by FIIs on 05-Jan-2011.

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value FII 05-Jan-2011 3245.55 3485.85 -240.3

 

Domestic Institutional Investors trading activity on NSE and BSE on Capital Market Segment

The following is combined Domestic Institutional Investors trading data across NSE and BSE collated on the basis of trades executed by Banks, DFIs, Insurance, MFs and New Pension System on 05-Jan-2011.

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value DII 05-Jan-2011 1349.98 1451.73 -101.75

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 05-Jan-2011

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FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 05-Jan-2011
	BUY		SELL		OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores	No. of contracts	Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES	29614	906.00	83478	2547.80	416922	12626.43	-1641.80
INDEX OPTIONS	172091	5145.25	115425	3493.38	1229550	37190.02	1651.87
STOCK FUTURES	31575	918.06	48226	1412.75	1249717	34843.25	-494.69
STOCK OPTIONS	11813	370.10	11393	354.16	13042	397.94	15.94
						Total	-468.69