Supreme Infrastructure - Poised for Strong Growth; Result Update Q3FY15 :: Edelweiss

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Supreme Industries - Inventory Loss Pain; Outlook Optimistic; Result Update Q2FY15 :: Edelweiss

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Supreme Infrastructure - In Deep Value Zone; Initiating Coverage :: Edelweiss

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Weak performance continues… • Supreme Infrastructure :: ICICI Securities, link

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Supreme Infrastructure Growth to continue; Buy :: Anand Rathi

Supreme Infrastructure
Growth to continue; Buy
Key takeaways
Strong order book drives revenues. We expect Supreme Infrastructure’s
revenue in 3QFY14 to have grown 2.4% yoy (81% qoq), following strong
execution in its road and buildings projects. Its order book in Sep’13
(including L1 projects of `12.5bn) was `65bn (3.3x TTM revenue).
Conversion of L1 orders and fresh order inflows would be positive triggers
for the stock. In 1HFY14, the company bagged orders of `12.2bn.
Healthy margins to continue. For the quarter, we expect the company to
register a 15% EBITDA margin vs 15.8% in the previous quarter and 17.3%
in the year-ago quarter. Given the high interest cost, we expect it to record a
5.5% net profit margin.
Update on BOT road projects. For ten BOT road projects, the company
has an equity commitment over FY12-15 of ~`8.9bn. Of this, it has infused
`5.72bn through investment, advances and debt at the hold-co level; ~`3.1bn
is to be infused by 3i India Infra Fund (of which `2bn has already been
received), the rest will be invested over FY14-15. The last tranche from 3i has
not yet been received and is awaiting certain NHAI clearances. The
proportion of BOT projects, 23% of the order book, is now being reduced.
Our take. Considering the pickup in execution in its road projects, the
company could register 2% yoy revenue growth in 3QFY14. We expect a
15% EBITDA margin and a 5.5% net profit margin. Conversion of its L1
orders to order book, together with reduced debt, would be the key
monitorable during the quarter. Our sum-of-parts target of `360 is based on
4x PE of the FY14e construction business (`304, a 50% discount to midcap
target multiples) and 0.8x Mar’13 P/BV (`56). Risk. Rise in interest rates.

Supreme Infrastructure India Ltd-Q4FY13 Result Update Maintain : BUY --KC research

::􀂉 Supreme Infrastructure India Ltd (SIIL) has reported a revenue of `6533.8 mn in
Q4FY13, with a modest revenue growth of 28.7% on Y-o-Y basis and by 18.7% on
sequential basis. For FY13 SIIL’s revenue of `19869.5 mn with growth of 31.9%. During
the year SIIL’s consolidated revenue grew by robust 35.1% to `23328.8 Mn.

Supreme Infrastructure Consistent performance; Buy :: Anand Rathi

Key takeaways
Revenue growth strong, margins dip. Supreme Infrastructure’s revenue
grew 28.7% yoy (19% qoq), beating our estimate. Its reported EBITDA
margin, however, declined 175bps yoy to 12.7% (down 460bps qoq), lower
than we estimated. The company has made a one-time `110m provision for a
defunct liability, which led to the margin decline; adjusting for this, the margin
stood at 14.3%. Over FY14-15 management expects to maintain the margin
at 15-17%. As a result of the strong revenue growth and lower EBITDA
margin, adjusted PAT grew 50.4%, and came higher than we expected. Debt
has increased, taking net gearing to 1.8x.
Order book strong. The order book (incl. L1 projects of `11.2bn) of
`60.4bn (3x TTM revenue) is dominated by roads & bridges (40%) and
buildings (49%). Order inflows during FY13 stood at `31.3bn. The company
surpassed its full-year target order inflow of ~`25bn.
BOT projects update. For 10 BOT road projects, the company has an
equity commitment over FY12-15 of ~`8.1bn. Of this, it has infused `4.35bn
through investment, advances and debt at the hold-co level; ~`3.1bn is to be
infused by 3i India Infra Fund (of which `2bn has already been received), the
rest will be invested over FY12-15. The last tranche from 3i has not yet been
received and is awaiting certain NHAI clearances. BOT projects comprise
25% of the order book and is reducing. The Manor-Wada road project has
been operational since Jan’13. The company expects to raise `2bn-2.5bn by
securitizing the cash flows of this project and to repay some of its debt.
Our take. The company continues to demonstrate consistent and strong
revenue growth, with a stable operating performance. We expect it to post
~15%/19% revenue/PAT CAGRs in the next two years. We retain a Buy,
with a target of `360. Our sum-of-parts-based target of `360 is based on 4x
FY14e PE of the construction business (`304, a 50% discount to midcap
target multiples) and 1x Mar’12 P/BV (`56). Risk: Rise in interest rates.

Supreme Industries - TP: ` 409 Buy :Dolat Capital

Supreme Industries Q3 FY13 results review
Supreme Industries (SIL) for Q3FY13 has reported net revenues at ` 9.04bn
(Dolat Est. ` 9.1bn), growth of 19% YoY on the back of impressive revenue
growth of ~42% YoY in its plastic piping segment. On the other hand, while
consumer & industrial product segment grew 9% & 1% respectively, the
packaging product segment de-grew by 5% YoY for the quarter under review.
Overall volume growth was quite impressive with 13% YoY growth at 74,526
tonnes (Dolat estimates at 75,000 tonnes) while realization grew by impressive
4.1%.
Impressive operating performance powered by 110 bps expansion in
margins
Higher operating margins during the quarter resulted in EBIDTA growing by
28% YoY to ` 1.34bn (Dolat estimates at ` 1.3bn). SIL’s operating margins
improved by 110bps from 13.8% in Q3 FY12 to 14.9% in Q3 FY13 (Dolat
estimates at 14.2%) due to: a) strong 14.7% margins (an increase of 170 bps
YoY) reported by plastic piping segment (53% of overall revenues) and b)
inventory gains.
Core profitability rises 38% to ` 680mn (higher than estimates)
Profits from the core business (adjusted for construction business profits &
excluding share of associates) grew by 38% to ` 680mn (Dolat estimates at `
631mn) as compared to ` 493mn. On consolidated basis (including share of
associates & construction business), SIL has reported a YoY growth of 39% to
` 758mn from ` 547mn YoY.
View: We roll our numbers to FY15. Thus change our rating to ‘BUY’from
‘ACCUMULATE’ with a revised target price of ` 409 (14xFY15E EPS)

Supreme Infrastructure - Initiation - Centrum

Initiating Coverage

Supreme Infrastructure

Buy

Target Price: Rs373

CMP: Rs198

Upside: 87.9%

Growth in the offing

Supreme Infrastructure (Supreme) is an integrated and diversified EPC player present across segments and geographies. It has established itself as a leading BOT player with total projects worth Rs43.7bn spanning over 1,810 lane km (currently 4 operating projects spanning over 720 lane km and project investment of Rs10.6bn). Further inroads into the BOT segment has become easier with equity commitment from private equity 3i Capital which is committed to invest over Rs3.06bn in Supreme’s four BOT projects. In the Union Budget 2013-14 it was announced that during H1FY14 over 3,000km of new road projects will be awarded and Supreme, with its freed up capital is well placed to capitalise on this opportunity. The EPC segment which enjoys above industry margins due to backward integration is likely to support earnings with order book of over Rs54.4bn catering to segments like buildings, bridges, roads (both BOT and cash contracts), water and power (earnings CAGR of 39.8% over FY12-15E). Additionally, toll revenues are expected to rise with five BOT projects likely to be operational during FY14-15E. We like Supreme due to its integrated business model in EPC, diversified order book, BOT concentration in high traffic density states (Maharashtra, Punjab) and availability of growth capital with equity infusion by 3i Capital. We initiate coverage on the stock with a ‘Buy’ rating and target price of Rs373.

Supreme Industries - Power packed growth; visit note; Buy ::Edelweiss pdf LINK

Supreme Industries (SI IN, INR 282, Buy)

We attended the AGM of Supreme industries (SIL) and interacted with its Managing Director, Mr MP Taparia to get an update on growth and new launches of the company. SIL has maintained its topline growth guidance of 25% driven by a 16% growth in volume in FY13E and a strong traction across most segments except consumer segment. The company plans to launch composite cylinders and pipes and also plans to enter the high quality bathroom fittings segment. Maintain ‘BUY’.

Supreme Infrastructure -Management meet reinforces confidence; Buy: Anand Rathi

We recently met the senior management of Supreme Infrastructure to
get an insight on latest developments in various business verticals and
overall industry scenario. We raise our profit estimates by 6% for FY13
& FY14 and target price by 5% to `350 and maintain a Buy.

Supreme Infrastructure India Ltd Buy :Target Price Rs 344 :KJMC

Buy Supreme Infra; Target : Rs 316 : ICICI Securities, PDF link

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http://content.icicidirect.com/mailimages/ICICIdirect_SupremeInfrastructure_InitiatingCoverage.pdf


’  S  u p  r e m e  ’   v a  l u e   p o t e  n t i a  l …
Supreme Infrastructure (Supreme)  is a Mumbai based mid-sized
construction company with a presence primarily across roads, bridges,
and buildings. With a strong order book of | 3772 crore as on Q3FY12,
2.8x book to bill on a TTM basis, we expect Supreme’s revenues to grow
at 30% CAGR during FY11-14E. It enjoys superior margins vis-à-vis its
peers through access to quarries and own RMC, asphalt and crushing
plants, which lends it comparative  advantage in terms of cost of
aggregates. Supreme also has a portfolio of nine BOT projects, the equity
of which is largely tied up, providing us comfort over funding of the
projects. We are initiating coverage on the stock with a BUY rating.

Buy Supreme Infrastructure: Q3FY12 Result Update:: BP Equities

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Results Highlights
 The company has registered a robust revenue growth of 70.4% yoy to Rs. 4,106 mn, showing
superior execution strength of the company. This strong execution was seen in the building segment
as well as in the road projects viz., Manor Wada Bhiwandi, Nagar Kopargaon and Patiala
Malerkotla.
 EBIDTA margins remained under pressure and declined by 34 bps yoy at 16.9%. This was mainly
due to marginal rise in cost of materials as a percentage of sales by 332 bps yoy. Going ahead
we expect the margins to remain between 16.5% to 17%.
 At the PAT level we saw a decline in margins by 179 bps yoy at 6.1%. The decline was mainly
due to rise in interest cost as a percentage of sale by 185 bps yoy at 6.2% and in addition to that
we also saw increase in cost of deprecation by 58.5% yoy which further dented the margins.
 Average cost of borrowing stands between 13% to 13.5%.

Buy Supreme Infrastructure: Q3FY12 Result Update:: BP Equities

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Results Highlights
 The company has registered a robust revenue growth of 70.4% yoy to Rs. 4,106 mn, showing
superior execution strength of the company. This strong execution was seen in the building segment
as well as in the road projects viz., Manor Wada Bhiwandi, Nagar Kopargaon and Patiala
Malerkotla.
 EBIDTA margins remained under pressure and declined by 34 bps yoy at 16.9%. This was mainly
due to marginal rise in cost of materials as a percentage of sales by 332 bps yoy. Going ahead
we expect the margins to remain between 16.5% to 17%.
 At the PAT level we saw a decline in margins by 179 bps yoy at 6.1%. The decline was mainly
due to rise in interest cost as a percentage of sale by 185 bps yoy at 6.2% and in addition to that
we also saw increase in cost of deprecation by 58.5% yoy which further dented the margins.
 Average cost of borrowing stands between 13% to 13.5%.

Supreme Infrastructure India Ltd Buy ::KJMC

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Supreme Infrastructure India Ltd (SIIL) reported better than expected
Q3FY12 results. The company reported strong 70.6% yoy growth in Q3FY12
net revenue and 68% growth in adjusted PAT on strong execution in roads,
building and power contracts. In the quarter, the company added Rs 6.3 bn of
new orders resulting into total order book at Rs 37.72 bn. The OB includes Rs
4.21 bn of L1 orders. In the quarter the company announced addition of new
BOT road projects; Sangli-Shiroli with Rs 2.73 bn of project cost and Patiala
Malerkotla of Rs 930 mn project cost. Further, 3i India Infrastructure Fund
recently invested USD 61 mn in SIIL’s BOT road projects which would
support SIIL in terms of meeting equity commitment in the BOT road assets.
Key Highlights
Robust Q3FY12 performance: In Q3FY12, revenue grew by 70.6% yoy to Rs 4.09
bn which was above our expectation. The growth in revenue was driven by
strong execution of road, building and power projects. In road segment
strong execution witnessed in Manor Wada project, Japur Ring road project
and Dorha-Ludhiyana contract. The EBITDA margin for the quarter stood at
16.7% which declined by 41.4 bps on yoy basis. The adjusted PAT for the
quarter grew by 68% on yoy to Rs 250.2 mn. The interest cost grew by 144.7%
on yoy and 24.7% on qoq to Rs 252.7 mn. The reported PAT grew at lower
rate of 32% on yoy on account of a high base led by Rs 40.7 mn of exceptional
items in Q3FY11.
Order Book remained robust at Rs 37.7 bn: In the quarter SIIL added Rs 6.3 bn of
new orders resulting into total order book at Rs 37.72 bn. This includes Rs 4.2
bn of L1 orders. The order book includes 47.8% of the orders from its own
BOT road projects and 52.2% of non BOT projects from buildings, power,
roads, etc. In the quarter, the company announced addition of new BOT road
project Sangli-Shiroli in Maharashtra with Rs 2.73 bn of project cost and
Patiala Malerkotla of Rs 930 mn project cost.
BOT projects got Private equity funding booster: SIIL needs over Rs 5 bn of equity
infusion in the road BOT road projects which includes major projects like
NKT, Manor Wada Bhiwandi, Jaipur ring Road and Panvel Indapur project.
Hence USD 61 mn investment by 3i India Infrastructure Fund would be a
major booster for SIIL to complete the projects in time.

Supreme Industries : Target Price: Rs 246 Buy ::Dolat Capital,

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We rate Supreme as preferred pick in this segment considering its diversified product portfolio, strong geographic
reach and most importantly having a strict working capital which is a key differentiator vis-à-vis other plastic
processors. This has enabled the company to enjoy higher return ratios over a sustained period of time. Thus we
believe that SIL will continue to command a premium over the other plastic processors.
Supreme Industries Limited (SIL), one of the largest plastic processors in India, is expected to reap benefits of its
ongoing capacity expansions amidst strong demand outlook across its product portfolio. Revenues and PAT are
expected to exhibit a CAGR of 17.5% and 24.1% respectively from FY11-13. At CMP, SIL’s core business is attractively
valued at 9.4x FY13E earnings and 6x EV/EBIDTA. We initiate coverage on SIL with a Buy rating and TP of Rs246 on
SoTP basis, representing an upside of 35% from the current levels.
Investment Rationale
Standing tall in an unorganised sector
With over six decades of experience and through regular innovation and
introduction of cost-effective solutions, Supreme Industries (SIL) has created
a place and brand for itself in a business dominated by the unorganised
sector. SIL is now acclaimed with having the most diversified range of products
(over 7,000) resulting in market as well as customer diversification. With the
bulk of revenues coming from supplies to OEMs and through distribution
channels, the company has been able to get assured and large volumes,
resulting in revenue CAGR of around 20% over FY07-FY11.
Capacity expansion to drive growth, VAPs to drive margins
Backed by strong demand, SIL has planned an aggressive capex of Rs 10bn
across segments over five years. With this, SIL will see a volume CAGR of
18.4% in FY11-13 from 225bn tonnes per annum (btpa) in FY11 to 315btpa in
FY13 in terms of polymers processed. Apart from capex, SIL will continue to
increase its share of value-added products (VAPs) -- having margins upwards
of 17% -- by enhancing its focus on cross-laminated films (100% VAPs) and
other VAPs that will help maintain or even increase its margins.
Clean balance sheet, strict working capital, strong dividend payouts
We believe SIL will continue to maintain high RoE and RoCE due to: 1) healthy
topline growth on the back of strong capex initiatives and higher fixed asset
turnover, 2) increasing cash flows from core operations through strict control
of working capital, and 3) stable margins. Besides, SIL has been continuously
rewarding shareholders with strong dividend payout ratio ranging 30-50%
over three years. SIL has not raised capital in 15 years since the current
management took over, despite its asset-heavy business. It, in fact, bought
back shares in FY09 at an average Rs 111 per share (pre-split).

Supreme Infrastructure India Ltd (SIIL) – BUY ::Unicon

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Supreme Infrastructure India Ltd (SIIL) – BUY

Supreme Infrastructure India Ltd. (SIIL) has gained its reputation as fastest growing construction companies in India with proven track record in project execution in Road, Real-estate and allied infrastructure segments. Initially started as roads and buildings contractors, SIIL now has successfully diversified its service offering into power, irrigation, railways and sewerage. SIIL projects are scattered across states. Quality asset book, superior return on capital with low valuation offers good opportunity for investor to buy at current level for potential upside of 24%.

ü  Robust and diversified order book to sustain growth momentum

ü  Sustainable higher operating profit margin due to backward integration

ü  Moving up in value chain

Valuation and Outlook

Diversified skill sets with proven execution track record and superior operating profit margins enable SIIL to go aggressively to secure new contracts to maintain its growth momentum.

With RoE of 22% and RoCE of 18.5% in FY13e, stock currently trades at 4x our earning estimates for FY13e, EV/Sales of 0.7x and EV/EBITDA of 4.5x. Revenue and net profit after tax are expected to grow at CAGR of 21% and 12% respectively over FY13. We set price objective of INR 280 (exit PE of 5x its FY13e earning per share of INR 55.4).

Thanks & Regards

Unicon Wealth Research

KIFS Result update of Zydus,BOC,BASF,Supreme Petrochem

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KIFS Result update of:

ZYDUS WELLNESS Q1 FY12

OVERVIEW

Zydus is engaged in the business of manufacturing and selling of all types of health food and wellness product. It combines the best of healthcare, nutrition and cosmeceuticals to bring to its users an array of the best wellness products to enrich its customers' life. Its products comprise Sugar Free, Nutralite and EverYuth. The Company also made its foray in neutraceuticals space by launching ActiLife, a nutritional milk additive for adults. The management is targeting revenue of Rs. 500 crores by 2013-14 by creating newer experiences through its products that nourish, nurture and energies the lives of the consumers.

Key highlights:

· Total income  grew marginally to Rs. 88 cr. v/s Rs. 87 cr in June-10

· Operating Profit grew by 24% Y-o-Y to Rs. 15 cr.  v/s Rs. 12 cr in June-10

· OPM grew by 323 bps Y-o-Y to 16.75%  v/s 13.52 % in June-10

· Net profit grew by 10 % Y-o-Y to Rs. 8.5 cr.  v/s Rs. 7.7 cr in June-10

· NPM grew by 87 bps Y-o-Y to 9.62 %  v/s 8.75 % in June-10

BOC INDIA Q1 FY12

OVERVIEW

BOC India (BOCI) is engaged in manufacturing of industrial gases and undertaking engineering projects. The company supplies more than 20,000 gases and mixtures - that makes steel plants more efficient, helps conserving environment, preservation of food, helping hospitals sustain lives and in general makes customers more productive. BOC India owns one of the Asia’s largest air separation units. The company owns more than 20 manufacturing units, 40 warehouses and depots, 100 dealers and more than 100 dedicated tankers in the distribution fleet. BOC India has signed 15 year gas supply agreement with Steel Authority of India (SAIL) Rourkela Steel Plant.

Key highlights:

· Total income  grew by 1% Y-o-Y to Rs. 250 cr. v/s Rs. 249 cr in June-10

· Operating Profit grew by 12% Y-o-Y to Rs. 53 cr.  v/s Rs. 48cr in June-10

· OPM grew by 306 bps Y-o-Y to 21.34%  v/s 18.28% in June-10

· Net profit grew by 11% Y-o-Y to Rs. 27 cr.  v/s Rs. 24 cr in June-10

· NPM grew by 151 bps Y-o-Y to 10.77%  v/s 9.26 % in June-10

BASF INDIA Q1 FY12

OVERVIEW

BASF India Ltd (BIL) is the flagship company of the Germany-based BASF group’s India operations. BASF is world’s leading company in chemical sector. BASF Group is a conglomerate that caters to various segments such as plastics, care chemicals, construction chemicals, petrochemicals, automotive and refinery chemicals, paper chemicals etc. BASF India has three manufacturing facilities located in Thane, Mangalore and Dadra.

Key highlights:

· Total income  grew by 53% Y-o-Y to Rs. 1016 cr. v/s Rs. 664 cr in June-10

· Operating Profit grew by 10% Y-o-Y to Rs. 91 cr.  v/s Rs. 83 cr in June-10

· OPM fell by 347 bps Y-o-Y to 8.99%  v/s 12.46% in June-10

· Net profit grew by 8% Y-o-Y to Rs. 53 cr.  v/s Rs. 49 cr in June-10

· NPM fell by 218 bps Y-o-Y to 5.18%  v/s 7.36 % in June-10

SUPREME PETROCHEM Q1 FY12

OVERVIE

Supreme Petrochem Ltd (SPL) is a joint venture between the Supreme Industries Ltd. and the Rajan Raheja Group. SPL is the leader in Polystyrene business in the Indian market place with a share of more than 50%. SPL is also the largest exporter of PS from India, exporting to over 80 countries around the globe. Currently SPL's exports are over 100,000 tonne per year. Supreme Petrochem owns and operates a state-of-the art Polystyrene facility, with an installed capacity of 2,72,000 TPA located at Nagothane in Raigad District. The facility also includes a world class colouring and compounding facility with an installed capacity of 17000 TPA.

Key highlights:

· Total income  grew by 11% Y-o-Y to Rs. 518 cr. v/s Rs. 466 cr in June-10

· Operating Profit grew by 34% Y-o-Y to Rs. 38 cr.  v/s Rs. 28 cr in June-10

· OPM grew by 127 bps Y-o-Y to 7.39%  v/s 6.12% in June-10

· Net profit grew by 56% Y-o-Y to Rs. 21 cr.  v/s Rs. 14 cr in June-10

· NPM grew by 119 bps Y-o-Y to 4.1%  v/s 2.91 % in June-10

Shareholding patterns:: Business Line,

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With construction stocks, along with their infrastructure and real-estate contemporaries, falling out of favour with the markets, have institutional investors — domestic and foreign — also shunned the stocks?

Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) remained invested, reducing holdings in a little under half the stocks in the construction universe over the past two years. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) on the other hand, have pared holdings in more than half the stocks, even exiting a few.

We considered the quarterly shareholding patterns over the past two years, for 25 of the bigger construction companies to gauge holding patterns.

Increases and decreases

Between March '09 and '10, DIIs increased stakes in 11 of the 25 companies that make up the construction universe. Stocks such as Simplex Infra, CCCL and Ahluwalia Contracts have seen the maximum holding increases by DIIs. Companies have also not seen DIIs completely liquidating their holdings and exiting the stock.

The disfavour for construction stocks appears to have affected FIIs, with 60 per cent of the stocks seeing reduction in FII holdings between March '09 and December ‘10. FIIs had also exited three stocks by end-December '10 — Atlanta, Tantia Constructions and KNR Constructions — where they had stakes of over 5 per cent.

Favoured stocks

Even as FIIs consistently shed stakes, they did push up stakes in a select few. Stocks that found favour, where both DIIs and FIIs hiked holdings, include C&C Constructions, CCCL, Supreme Infrastructure and Marg Constructions.