23 December 2011

Mundra Port & SEZ (XMANF, Neutral) BofA Merrill Lynch,

Please Share:: Bookmark and Share India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��


Mundra Port & SEZ (XMANF, Neutral)
Bear Case: What can go wrong
􀂄 In the bear case, we expect the delay in Adani Power and Tata Power
capacity addition on non-viable imported coal. This could lead to fall in coal
cargo volume. We cut volume by 7% in FY12E and 10% in FY13-14E.
Further, expect fall in port realization, hence, cut our FY13-14E realization by
5% vs base case.
􀂄 We expect slowdown in capex could delay monetization at SEZ and expect
22% lower SEZ revenue over FY13-14E vs base case.
􀂄 Consequently, we expect sales growth of 12%YoY in FY13E and 14% in
FY14E. We expect parent EPS CAGR of 28% over FY11-14E.
􀂄 In the bear case, we expect MSEZ to trade at Rs126/share translating into a
4x P/BV of FY13E.
Base Case:
􀂄 In the base case, we expect parent earnings to grow at 38% EPS CAGR
over FY11-14E led by strong port traffic growth esp. coal & containers.
􀂄 In the base case, we expect MSEZ to trade at Rs165 per share translating
into a 4.95x P/BV of FY13E.
Risk-Reward: Unfavorable but a defensive
􀂄 In the bear case, we expect MSEZ to trade at Rs126 per share translating
into a 4x P/BV of FY13E.
􀂄 In the base case, we expect MSEZ to trade at Rs165 per share translating
into a 4.95x P/BV of FY13E.
􀂄 Overall, the risk-reward appears unfavorable.

2 comments:

  1.     This is nice post which I was awaiting for such an article and I have gained some useful information from this site. Thanks for sharing this information.

    ReplyDelete
  2.      I haven’t any word to appreciate this post.... i think this is really a great thing about the fashion. Really I am impressed from this post. I am very happy to read this article. Thanks for giving us nice info. Fantastic walk-through. I appreciate this post.

    ReplyDelete