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Mundra Port & SEZ (XMANF, Neutral)
Bear Case: What can go wrong
In the bear case, we expect the delay in Adani Power and Tata Power
capacity addition on non-viable imported coal. This could lead to fall in coal
cargo volume. We cut volume by 7% in FY12E and 10% in FY13-14E.
Further, expect fall in port realization, hence, cut our FY13-14E realization by
5% vs base case.
We expect slowdown in capex could delay monetization at SEZ and expect
22% lower SEZ revenue over FY13-14E vs base case.
Consequently, we expect sales growth of 12%YoY in FY13E and 14% in
FY14E. We expect parent EPS CAGR of 28% over FY11-14E.
In the bear case, we expect MSEZ to trade at Rs126/share translating into a
4x P/BV of FY13E.
Base Case:
In the base case, we expect parent earnings to grow at 38% EPS CAGR
over FY11-14E led by strong port traffic growth esp. coal & containers.
In the base case, we expect MSEZ to trade at Rs165 per share translating
into a 4.95x P/BV of FY13E.
Risk-Reward: Unfavorable but a defensive
In the bear case, we expect MSEZ to trade at Rs126 per share translating
into a 4x P/BV of FY13E.
In the base case, we expect MSEZ to trade at Rs165 per share translating
into a 4.95x P/BV of FY13E.
Overall, the risk-reward appears unfavorable.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Mundra Port & SEZ (XMANF, Neutral)
Bear Case: What can go wrong
In the bear case, we expect the delay in Adani Power and Tata Power
capacity addition on non-viable imported coal. This could lead to fall in coal
cargo volume. We cut volume by 7% in FY12E and 10% in FY13-14E.
Further, expect fall in port realization, hence, cut our FY13-14E realization by
5% vs base case.
We expect slowdown in capex could delay monetization at SEZ and expect
22% lower SEZ revenue over FY13-14E vs base case.
Consequently, we expect sales growth of 12%YoY in FY13E and 14% in
FY14E. We expect parent EPS CAGR of 28% over FY11-14E.
In the bear case, we expect MSEZ to trade at Rs126/share translating into a
4x P/BV of FY13E.
Base Case:
In the base case, we expect parent earnings to grow at 38% EPS CAGR
over FY11-14E led by strong port traffic growth esp. coal & containers.
In the base case, we expect MSEZ to trade at Rs165 per share translating
into a 4.95x P/BV of FY13E.
Risk-Reward: Unfavorable but a defensive
In the bear case, we expect MSEZ to trade at Rs126 per share translating
into a 4x P/BV of FY13E.
In the base case, we expect MSEZ to trade at Rs165 per share translating
into a 4.95x P/BV of FY13E.
Overall, the risk-reward appears unfavorable.
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