Please Share:: 
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Mundra Port & SEZ Ltd.
Rec PAT +36%YoY on MAT
credit claim; 2Q cargo surprise
�� Rec PAT +36%YoY on cargo +34%YoY & MAT credit; Neutral
MSEZ 2Q Rec. PAT +36%YoY (+8% consensus) on MAT credit, port income
+45%YoY led by +8%YoY tariffs and +34%YoY volume. ASP rose on high margin
cargo growth – Coal +70%YoY. SEZ continue to disappoint at a meager 1% of sales.
We up our EPS by ~25% for FY12-14E to factor-in co’s policy of claiming MAT credit
in same year as payment, which has no cash impact. Maintain Neutral despite a
compelling asset on lower returns on Abbott Point terminal acquisition, leveraged
consol. balance sheet post acquisition (net D/E 2.2x) and lower stock upside v/s other
developers in coverage. Raise PO on roll-forward. We think that its EPS CAGR of
47% over FY11-13E is reflected in its premium valuation at 21x our FY12E EPS.
Coal & container drive cargo +34% + MAT Credit drive PAT
Mundra Port 2Q cargo of 16.8mmT led by coal +70%YoY (50% of incremental
cargo), crude +63%YoY (25% of increment cargo) while high ASP container cargo
grew at muted 16%YoY (14% of incremental cargo). SEZ revenue was minuscule
at Rs60mn. 2Q12 Rec PAT +36%YoY on 8%YoY growth in port tariffs @Rs346/tn
and +34%YoY cargo volume led port income +45%YoY. MSEZ provided for MAT
but claimed equal (Rs551mn) credit to off-set tax burden. Excluding MAT credit,
Rec. PAT growth would have been muted at 10%. Rep. PAT came-in at Rs2.7bn
+29%YoY on Rs139mn derivative loss vs Rs11mn derivative gain 2Q11.
East port & APCT/Dudgeon Point +ves but to up capex/lower RoE
MSEZ is scaling-up its ports business – it has bagged ports at Goa & Hazira and
is working on a port in Orissa. Apart from 80mtpa Abbot Point Coal Terminal in
Australia, it is developing a 30-60mtpa coal terminal at Dudgeon Point and may
set-up 35-50mtpa port to evacuate coal from Tanjung Enim mines of PTBA for
ADE. Expect these capex to be lower RoCE v/s its core Mundra port. New project
concessions wins and SEZ land bank scale up to 32k acres are catalysts. Risks:
Global weakness impacting port traffic, reducing viability of imported coal in India
& slow recovery in private capex at SEZs.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Mundra Port & SEZ Ltd.
Rec PAT +36%YoY on MAT
credit claim; 2Q cargo surprise
�� Rec PAT +36%YoY on cargo +34%YoY & MAT credit; Neutral
MSEZ 2Q Rec. PAT +36%YoY (+8% consensus) on MAT credit, port income
+45%YoY led by +8%YoY tariffs and +34%YoY volume. ASP rose on high margin
cargo growth – Coal +70%YoY. SEZ continue to disappoint at a meager 1% of sales.
We up our EPS by ~25% for FY12-14E to factor-in co’s policy of claiming MAT credit
in same year as payment, which has no cash impact. Maintain Neutral despite a
compelling asset on lower returns on Abbott Point terminal acquisition, leveraged
consol. balance sheet post acquisition (net D/E 2.2x) and lower stock upside v/s other
developers in coverage. Raise PO on roll-forward. We think that its EPS CAGR of
47% over FY11-13E is reflected in its premium valuation at 21x our FY12E EPS.
Coal & container drive cargo +34% + MAT Credit drive PAT
Mundra Port 2Q cargo of 16.8mmT led by coal +70%YoY (50% of incremental
cargo), crude +63%YoY (25% of increment cargo) while high ASP container cargo
grew at muted 16%YoY (14% of incremental cargo). SEZ revenue was minuscule
at Rs60mn. 2Q12 Rec PAT +36%YoY on 8%YoY growth in port tariffs @Rs346/tn
and +34%YoY cargo volume led port income +45%YoY. MSEZ provided for MAT
but claimed equal (Rs551mn) credit to off-set tax burden. Excluding MAT credit,
Rec. PAT growth would have been muted at 10%. Rep. PAT came-in at Rs2.7bn
+29%YoY on Rs139mn derivative loss vs Rs11mn derivative gain 2Q11.
East port & APCT/Dudgeon Point +ves but to up capex/lower RoE
MSEZ is scaling-up its ports business – it has bagged ports at Goa & Hazira and
is working on a port in Orissa. Apart from 80mtpa Abbot Point Coal Terminal in
Australia, it is developing a 30-60mtpa coal terminal at Dudgeon Point and may
set-up 35-50mtpa port to evacuate coal from Tanjung Enim mines of PTBA for
ADE. Expect these capex to be lower RoCE v/s its core Mundra port. New project
concessions wins and SEZ land bank scale up to 32k acres are catalysts. Risks:
Global weakness impacting port traffic, reducing viability of imported coal in India
& slow recovery in private capex at SEZs.
No comments:
Post a Comment