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United States
Rising from its ashes
Loin de rechuter au troisième trimestre, la croissance américaine a accéléré, à +2,5% (rythme trimestriel annualisé), après +1,3% au T2 et
+0,4% au T1. Alors que les dépenses publiques sont restées inchangées, la consommation des ménages a rebondi de façon assez
marquée si l’on tient compte de la double contrainte (emploi atone, inflation élevée) qui pèse sur leur revenu disponible. De fait, la vraie
source de dynamisme réside dans l‘investissement des entreprises et les exportations. Les dépenses en équipements et logiciels ont
progressé particulièrement rapidement (+17,4%), alors qu’une nouvelle contribution positive du commerce extérieur illustre
l’amélioration de la compétitivité des Etats-Unis (via une baisse des coûts unitaires de production, mais aussi une baisse du dollar).
Now, it’s unquestionable: the US economy did not double-dipped,
since GDP actually accelerated in the third quarter, posting the highest
rate of growth for 2011. After sluggish growth over the first half of the
year (+0.4% in Q1 and +1.3% in Q2, on a quarterly annualised basis),
GDP grew by 2.5% in Q3.
The public sector kept on weighing down on overall demand, with
government spending flat over the quarter. Government demand has
been cutting overall GDP growth for a full year, now. Since it peaked, in
2010 Q3, public spending lost 2.4%, subtracting 0.6 point to overall
GDP growth. This is to continue: while the budget consolidation
process is still ongoing at the state and local levels of government, it
will start as next year for the federal government. Additionally, the
impact is way larger than the direct one on GDP figures.. Since the
summer of 2008, government (federal, state and local) payrolls have
been cut by 1 114 000 employees: this represents 22% of the total
decline in the US employment over the period. The government directly
contributed to the decline in households’ labour income, even it was
partly offset with a rise in benefits.
With real disposable income constrained by a depressed labour
market and rising commodity prices, in a context of deleveraging,
households’ demand cannot be buoyant. It however held up quite well
in Q3, with a 2.4% increase in consumption and even a small increase
in residential investment (+2.4%).
The main source of strength was thus in business spending and
exports. Non-residential investment grew by an annualised 16.3%,
spending on equipment and software being a particularly bright sport,
at +17.4%. As for exports, they gained an annualised 4.0% in Q3,
highlighting the continuous improvement of the US external
competitiveness, achieved through a massive drop in unit labour costs,
and helped by a declining dollar.
The strengths within today’s report are unquestionable. Even if,
together, the business and the external sectors represent only a small
part of overall demand, they can feed a self-sustained recovery. For
this to happen, the US economy “just” needs the households sector to
hold up a little longer. Federal money would help…
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
United States
Rising from its ashes
Loin de rechuter au troisième trimestre, la croissance américaine a accéléré, à +2,5% (rythme trimestriel annualisé), après +1,3% au T2 et
+0,4% au T1. Alors que les dépenses publiques sont restées inchangées, la consommation des ménages a rebondi de façon assez
marquée si l’on tient compte de la double contrainte (emploi atone, inflation élevée) qui pèse sur leur revenu disponible. De fait, la vraie
source de dynamisme réside dans l‘investissement des entreprises et les exportations. Les dépenses en équipements et logiciels ont
progressé particulièrement rapidement (+17,4%), alors qu’une nouvelle contribution positive du commerce extérieur illustre
l’amélioration de la compétitivité des Etats-Unis (via une baisse des coûts unitaires de production, mais aussi une baisse du dollar).
Now, it’s unquestionable: the US economy did not double-dipped,
since GDP actually accelerated in the third quarter, posting the highest
rate of growth for 2011. After sluggish growth over the first half of the
year (+0.4% in Q1 and +1.3% in Q2, on a quarterly annualised basis),
GDP grew by 2.5% in Q3.
The public sector kept on weighing down on overall demand, with
government spending flat over the quarter. Government demand has
been cutting overall GDP growth for a full year, now. Since it peaked, in
2010 Q3, public spending lost 2.4%, subtracting 0.6 point to overall
GDP growth. This is to continue: while the budget consolidation
process is still ongoing at the state and local levels of government, it
will start as next year for the federal government. Additionally, the
impact is way larger than the direct one on GDP figures.. Since the
summer of 2008, government (federal, state and local) payrolls have
been cut by 1 114 000 employees: this represents 22% of the total
decline in the US employment over the period. The government directly
contributed to the decline in households’ labour income, even it was
partly offset with a rise in benefits.
With real disposable income constrained by a depressed labour
market and rising commodity prices, in a context of deleveraging,
households’ demand cannot be buoyant. It however held up quite well
in Q3, with a 2.4% increase in consumption and even a small increase
in residential investment (+2.4%).
The main source of strength was thus in business spending and
exports. Non-residential investment grew by an annualised 16.3%,
spending on equipment and software being a particularly bright sport,
at +17.4%. As for exports, they gained an annualised 4.0% in Q3,
highlighting the continuous improvement of the US external
competitiveness, achieved through a massive drop in unit labour costs,
and helped by a declining dollar.
The strengths within today’s report are unquestionable. Even if,
together, the business and the external sectors represent only a small
part of overall demand, they can feed a self-sustained recovery. For
this to happen, the US economy “just” needs the households sector to
hold up a little longer. Federal money would help…
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