30 October 2011

The rollover report of October - November 2011 : Angel Broking

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NIFTY (80.25%) rollover is astonishing. Ever since bounce back began in market from 4700 levels we
have witnessed huge amount of short covering by FII’s and domestic participants piling up short
positions. On last day FII’s bought significantly in index futures and most of that built-up is in November
series. So other participants rolling shorts and FII’s forming fresh longs in next series resulted into such a
high rollover figure for NIFTY. BANKNIFTY (76.45%) is also high but not by very high margin and this
index has seen maximum short positions getting rolled over.
Options data for current series is reflecting call options trading interest going up as high as 5500. This
level now looks quite achievable after looking at fall in implied volatility and relatively positive news
flow coming out of European region. We believe there may be rush for covering short positions, so those
who are long should continue to hold on to their positions for bigger upside moves.



Banking and Financials
 Many large cap PSU banks like SBIN (82.89%),
PNB (87.20%), BANKINDIA (84.91%) and CANBK
(82.90%) have witnessed significant amount of
short positions getting added in last series and
rolled over to this one.
 ICICIBANK (85.16%) have added huge positions in
last series in the range of 860-880. We believe its
accumulation of long positions. We also expect
substantial short covering to take place which may
take it to 1000+ levels.
 BANKBARODA (85.99%) has seen significant short
positions getting piled up. Counter has strong
support around 700 levels. Short covering can take
this counter above its recent high of 780.
Metal & Mining


 HINDALCO (91.49%) has witnessed maximum
rollover in the sector with huge rise in open interest
and most of these positions are short. Short
covering move likely to take counter to 145 levels.
 TATASTEEL (90.22%) is next in terms of high
rollovers and seen bounce from lower levels. This
counter too has substantial short positions. Stock
can rally upto 500-510 levels where it may face
resistance.
 COALINDIA (85.66%) has added maximum
positions in this space and needless to say that they
too are short. Counter has good support around
320, short covering bounce may happen but we
don’t see significant upside above 360 levels.


Oil & Gas
 RELIANCE (83.50%) unlike market and most other
stocks has seen formation of mainly long positions
in last series. We believe that its upside may
continue and levels of 940-950 seem quite
achievable.
 Formation of long positions and rollover of the
same were observed in GAIL (88.73%). Resistance
of 480 is quite likely but before that one can trade
with positive bias.
 ONGC (68.95%) has seen least rollover as its FPO
plans are getting regularly deferred. We believe
there is possibility that counter may go above its
resistance of 290-300 with least open interest and
then government may announce FPO and do it too.


FMCG


 ITC (82.35%) witnessed very less open interest
getting rolled over last time but this time it has
added substantial open interest with rise in prices.
It has just made its all time high but we don’t
expect substantial correction in it.
 HINDUNILVR (86.03%) has added some open
interest and has failed to move above its resistance
of 345. We expect defensive bets to keep
downward pressure on the counter.
 TATAGLOBAL (87.07%) has seen some bounce
from support of 84-85. Fresh formation of long
positions quite likely in this counter and we expect
upside move upto 98 levels in the same.





Auto & Auto Ancillaries

 Interestingly most of the Auto majors like
TATAMOTORS (86.73%), BAJAJ-AUTO (82.64%),
M&M (89.12%) and HEROMOTOCO (79.22%)
have been outperformers and have witnessed
strong rollovers.
 MARUTI (79.36%) has been market performer but
we expect significant underperformance in
November series. Any rise to 1200 levels should
be used to go short in this counter.
 EXIDEIND (79.53%) has seen huge fall in price
with significant rise in open interest. Counter has
very strong support around 105-110 levels.
Investors can accumulate this stock.




Inf ormation Technology

 INFY (78.04%) has been one of the biggest
outperformer in the large cap in last series.
Counter has also added substantial open interest
in same period. It can show initial pop but we
don’t expect significant upside above 3000 levels
in it.
 FINANTECH (88.65%) added substantial open
interest and most of it has been short positions.
Counter is at its strong support of 690 levels. We
suggest going long in it as stock may bounce back
to 820 levels or so.
 POLARIS (92.11%), FSL (91.74%) and OFSS
(90.63%) have seen maximum rollover in this
sector in percentage terms while ROLTA (69.48%)
has seen the least.


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