01 October 2011

UBS : Voltas- Improved risk-reward profile 􀂄 target Rs170

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UBS Investment Research
Voltas Ltd
I mproved risk-reward profile
􀂄 Event: management meeting to gauge business; FY12 will be challenging
The management meeting indicated a challenging FY12 due to Qatar project costs,
lower retail air conditioner (AC) sales in Q1 FY12, higher working capital and
poor sentiment impacting order flow (Rs44-45bn order book). The next six months
will be critical for order flow to support FY13 visibility. It will be net cash in
FY12E. An exceptional gain of Rs815m booked in Q1 FY12 from the sale of the
material handling business will boost yearly results.
􀂄 Impact: lower estimates and price target on Qatar costs, weak AC sales
We lower our FY12 EPS (excluding exceptionals) estimate by 27.3% and
including exceptionals estimate by 5.6% on the above reasons, and our FY13
estimate by 14.5% assuming peaking of rates, macro improvement, and better
room AC sales, and given UBS does not expect a global recession. We also lower
our price target sharply from Rs225 to Rs170, with lower implied valuations of
14.5x FY13E PE (historical mean of 17.5x) on medium-term uncertainties.
􀂄 Action: better risk-reward profile on valuations, infra story & high returns
Post significant underperformance (26.3% YTD to Nifty) and near trough
valuations (FY13E PE of 10x), the risk-reward profile of the stock has improved.
Long-term mechanical, electrical and plumbing (MEP)/retail AC opportunity in
India/MENA, the company’s net cash position, Tata management and high ROCEs
make us positive on the stock over the long term, albeit with medium-term
uncertainty (difficult to estimate the trough of negative newsflow).
􀂄 Valuation: maintain Buy; long term levered to infra story
We maintain our Buy rating. We derive our price target from a DCF-based
methodology and explicitly forecast long-term valuation drivers using UBS’s
VCAM tool (assume a 12.7% WACC). Our price target implies 14.5x FY13E PE.
Better risk-reward profile post sharp price
correction
Voltas’ share price has significantly underperformed YTD compared with the
Nifty (26.3%), due to higher-than-expected deterioration in macro such as rate
hikes, slowdown of capex/investment cycle, worsening of the global
environment, and to top it all, a weaker retail AC sales market due to pleasant
weather. This was exacerbated by the muted management outlook on Qatar
projects due to possible cost over-runs. When we initiated coverage in April
2011, we expected the non-project business (retail AC and engineering) at least
to perform well and macro to improve in one to two quarters, both of which
have not happened.
We now believe that post the share price correction, the risk-reward profile of
the stock has materially improved, given the stock is trading at near trough
valuations at a PE of 10.0x (almost near -1 standard deviation) and EV/EBITDA
of 6.0x FY13E (see charts 1 and 2), below historical mean of 17.5x PE and
12.2x EV/EBITDA. Its closest competitor in India, Blue Star, is also trading at
similar low valuations. While it would be difficult to estimate the end of
negative newsflow given the weaker management outlook for FY12 (hence
trough for the stock), we believe the current share price looks compelling over
the long term. The significant assumptions we make here are that we are
near the peak of the rate cycle, capex/investment will improve with a lag in
India, and UBS does not expect a recession globally. Our analysis of
operational performance indicates a flat order book (no collapse even in
FY08/09) over the past few quarters and revenue billing will materially increase
as spending sentiment improves, indicating an immediate financial impact.
Voltas is present in structurally infrastructure under-invested markets such as
India and the Middle East, where every build environment requires MEP. Also,
there is low penetration of ACs in India (~3% as indicated by Voltas
management) representing a long-term sustainable opportunity in consumer
durables space. We like their high-return net cash business (albeit, even after
assuming a slight structural easing of ROCEs on lower sustainable margin
guidance) and Tata management. Consequently, we retain our Buy rating with a
lowered price target of Rs170 (lower estimates, higher WACC), which reflects a
lower implied PE valuation of ~14.5x FY13E due to uncertainties on FY12E.


Quarterly performance
Historical order book analysis indicates that it has remained sluggish with weak
order accretion, yet with no collapse over the past 1-1.5 years. UBS Middle East
analyst Anuj Mehrotra highlighted that orders are delayed by one to two quarters,
with lower margins and higher working capital currently. So, while the
international order book has eased over the period, the domestic order book has
actually grown, beating the trend in a weak real investment cycle/construction
deflator (broad indicator though) over the same period. Also worth observing is
that when real investment growth dipped in FY09, the domestic order book did
not correct sharply, but overall revenues stagnated instead. Hence, we believe
that better sentiment could improve billing at a much faster pace, immediately
impacting the financial performance (excepting any project-specific risk).
Further, the past four to six quarters have been weak because of Segment A
(Electro-mechanical projects), which was impacted by poor sentiment and Qatar
project costs, mixed engineering segment performance, divestment of the
material handling business and adverse weather, which limited the sales of room
ACs.


Voltas senior management meeting highlights
While management did not give any financial guidance, it highlighted the
medium-term challenges such as Qatar project costs, a slowdown in retail AC
consumption, and weaker capex/investment sentiment impacting the pace of
new order flow. Following our discussion, we are of the view that FY12 is likely
to be worse than FY11 in terms of financial performance (de-growth likely in
profits, excluding exceptional gain from the sale of the material handling
business), the extent of which is not clear yet (and hence, potential timing of the
end of negative newsflow). Based on the assumption of rates peaking and
sentiment improving in FY13, we remain positive on the long-term structural
story in India/Middle East. We highlight below the key questions asked by UBS
and management thoughts on the same.
􀁑 What has led to the Qatar project cost over-runs and extent of margin
pressure? The Qatar project (cRs15bn at c12-15% of combined FY12/13
revenues and ~30% of current order book) is a design-and-build job, which is
also a fixed-price contract, with any adjustment in variations typically done
after the final certification at the end of the project. Firstly, the start of the
project has been delayed. Secondly, not all drawings/designs have been
finalised and execution depends on work completion by other agencies.
While Voltas has factored in some delay, the project completion now needs
to be done on a fast-track basis (higher capital, labour deployment). Given
this, Voltas cannot risk a potential delay penalty of 10% of project cost. To
take stock of the situation, Voltas is planning a detailed techno-commercial
audit by the end of quarter (independent study) and will likely take
provisioning if required based on the audit. Hence, profitability in Segment
A (Electro-mechanical Projects) will likely be under pressure, but there is no
clarity from management on margin expectations. Management also
refrained from commenting on being asked if Segment A will be profitable
for all quarters in FY12 due to any potential provisioning.
􀁑 Sustainable margins in Segment A (Electro-mechanical)? Although
management does not give any guidance, it now assumes lower margins on a
sustainable basis from ~8% to 7-7.5%. Forecasting the quarterly margin
trend is likely to be extremely difficult, as it would depend on the execution
and proportion of profitable versus less profitable projects. We largely reflect
this in our long-term and terminal assumptions.
􀁑 Is the India order book susceptible to similar cost pressures? Unlikely, as
the ticket size of large domestic projects averages ~Rs1-3bn, so any major
delays in one project will unlikely impact the overall profitability. However,
for international projects, the average ticket size is fairly large—between
Rs1-10bn for independent projects and larger for consortium projects.
􀁑 Order book break up ~Rs19-20bn is the domestic order book that
comprises Rs2bn of water projects (MEP and water, effluent or sewage
treatment; largely projects and no annuities); Rs2.25bn of electrical projects
under Rohini, Rs2bn of metro rail, Rs1bn of hospital projects, Rs2-3bn of
airport projects, and IT parks of ~Rs0.75-1.0bn, with the rest being heating,
ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) jobs. Except for the Metro Rail
(likely to start in 2012), the project execution cycle is likely to be 12-13

months. The international order book is ~Rs25bn, with ~Rs15bn of Qatari
projects (Sidra hospital and Barwa residential complex; original project cost).
The average execution cycle for international projects is likely to be 15
months. While in India order flow continues (still weak due to high cost of
capital), no international orders have been received in the past three months.
This is due to obvious weak sentiment and Voltas’s international benchmark
of high operating margin orders, which it has now slightly downgraded from
5-7% to 4-5%.
􀁑 Segment C (Unitary Cooling) performance? The market has been
significantly affected (de-growth in volumes in H1 FY12) by the pleasant
weather (mild summer and prolonged rains) and slightly weaker consumer
sentiment impacting spending. Most players are hoping for sales to pick up
in the festival season. Also, management highlighted inventory build-up in
the industry. We believe this is likely to result in a potential volume degrowth
for Q2 FY12 and discounts offered to consumers (slightly lowering
margins). Nevertheless, UBS remains positive on the growth potential of the
retail AC business, and we factor in rapid growth from FY13E.
􀁑 Plans to expand product range over the long term to expand brand
appeal? No clarity yet although this has been debated internally. While
management believes the retail AC opportunity is considerable (~3% AC
penetration in India), it needs to strongly invest in the brand to sustain its one
product appeal. There are no plans yet to look at other products and we
believe it may only consider this over the long term, when the overall macro
sentiment improves. Voltas is working on strengthening its distribution
network, especially in Tier 2 and 3 towns and it sells through both multibrand
outlets and smaller dealers.
􀁑 Higher working capital? The working capital cycle will likely be prolonged
(incremental 5-10 days) due to delays in payments from some domestic
clients and more capital involvement in the Middle East projects. Also, lack
of international order flow has meant no benefit of advances when orders are
awarded. Given weaker sustainable margin expectations and higher capital
employed, we expect a lower sustainable ROCE.
􀁑 Lead indicators for improvement in business While the obvious one is the
capex/investment cycle coming back, easing of working capital (meaning
clients clearing payments) and order flow are key to gauge any improvement.
Order flow in the next three to six months is critical for strengthening the
visibility for FY13.
Lowering FY12/13 estimates, price target
In Segment A (Electro-mechanical), we are cautious on Qatar project cost overruns
and we now factor in 5-6% margins in this segment for FY12. The technocommercial
audit by end-Q2 FY12 will likely provide more clarity on how
margins could evolve. For FY13, we assume margins to improve by 150-200
bps based on the assumptions of domestic order flow improvement in FY13
(potential peaking of rates), completion of Qatar projects, and possible
settlement of variation in these projects. Our revenue growth assumption is 4-
5% for FY12 and we forecast it to improve to c14-15% in FY13.


In Segment B (Engineering), we now assume lower revenues because of the sale
of the material handling business and higher commission-based margins.
However, we expect the performance of this segment to only improve as the
capex/investment cycle revives.
Segment C (Unitary Cooling) has had an incredibly challenging year due to the
weak summer, extended rains leading to pleasant weather, slower spending and
potential margin pressure due to inventory build-up in the system. This will be
evident in FY12. The Q4 FY12 quarter will be decisive on the potential
growth/decline in sales for the year (we assume growth of 10% in FY12 on
potential sales in Q4 FY12 and refrigeration/cold-chain product sales). We
estimate industry growth to improve to ~20-25% in FY13. We forecast margins
to ease in FY12/13 on higher competition.
After factoring in the above, we trim our EPS estimate (excluding exceptionals)
for FY12 by 27.3% owing to the uncertainties, cost over-runs at Qatar and the
current weaker spending sentiment. However, EPS including exceptionals has
been lowered by 5.6% only, due to the impact of a gain of Rs815m from the sale
of its material handling business. For FY13, we slightly lower our estimates by
14.5% and are building in an improvement in the environment (peaking of rates
and capex/investment cycle improving; India/Middle East are structurally underinvested
markets).

We derive our price target from a DCF-based methodology and explicitly
forecast long-term valuation drivers using UBS’s VCAM tool. We believe DCF
captures Voltas’ long-term growth potential in infrastructure-focused markets
like India and the Middle East. However, to account for the uncertainties, we
assume a high WACC of 12.7% (12.5% earlier) and also slightly trim our longterm
assumptions of sales growth (7% in Year 15+ versus 8% earlier and higher
downgrade in Year 10+ assumptions) and sustainable margins (4% versus 6.2%
earlier in Year 15+ and lower terminal assumptions). Our price target from this
methodology is Rs170, which implies a PE of 14.5x FY13E, much lower than
the historical mean PE valuation of 17.5x. This is because of the higher
uncertainty over the Qatar projects and the global macro environment.
Consequently, we do not believe the stock will re-rate to historical multiples
soon.


􀁑 Voltas Ltd
Voltas is an engineering solutions provider and project specialist, operating in
India and also international markets such as the Middle East and Asia. The
company offers engineering solutions (electro-mechanical) in areas such as
heating, ventilation and air conditioning, refrigeration and executes electromechanical
projects. In addition to this, it also provides water management
solutions such as desalination, waste water treatment, etc. Voltas operates in
three segments: electro-mechanical projects and services, engineering products
and services, and unitary cooling products.
􀁑 Statement of Risk
Key risks are near to medium term uncertainties on Qatar project costs, potential
slowdown of retail AC sales and weak order accretion for next 6-12 months and
volatility in currency, commodity prices.






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