Please Share:: 
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Metals
Potential Result Outperformers: JSPL
Potential Result Underperformers: JSW Steel, Tata Steel
In the September Q on a QoQ basis, we expect aggregate profit to decline 23%;
EBITDA to decline 19% and sales to decline 4%. On a YoY basis, we expect
profits to grow 17% and EBITDA to grow 20% on YoY basis. In Sept Q, base
metal prices were flat QoQ for Zinc, Cu and lead, but Al LME was down 7%QoQ.
Weaker INR should support higher realizations. In steels, we expect marginal
improvement in volumes and flat ASP on a QoQ basis. But domestic margins for
most steel cos will likely be lower due to full impact of higher coking coal prices.
Sterlite – We forecast PAT to decline 3%QoQ to Rs14.8bn. Zinc LME was
flat QoQ in September Q but INR was marginally weaker (-1.5%QoQ). We
forecast refined zinc volumes of 192.4kt (flat QoQ) and Al volumes of 60.7kt
(flat QoQ) in Sept Q. We estimate Sterlite Energy to contribute Rs802mn to
2QFY12 EBITDA.
Hindalco – We forecast profits to decline 10%QoQ to Rs5.3bn and EBITDA
to decline 6%QoQ. We forecast Al volumes to increase 4%QoQ and Cu
volumes to be flat QoQ. We expect full impact of higher coal costs to kick in
this quarter.
Nalco – We expect profits to decline by 10%QoQ to Rs3.4bn. We expect Al
LME to decline 7%QoQ. Also full impact of coal price revision in June Q will
start coming thru Sept Q onwards in our view. We forecast alumina volumes
to increase 2%QoQ and aluminum volumes to decline 14%QoQ.
Tata Steel – We forecast consol. PAT to decline 29%QoQ to Rs10.4bn in
September Q led by lower margins at TSE (Corus, -US$34/t QoQ). We
expect TSE margins to decline QoQ led by lagged impact of higher input
costs. We expect TSE volumes to decline 2%QoQ led by softer demand in
Europe owing to macro headwinds. In India, we expect EBITDA to be flat as
we expect 7%QoQ increase in volumes to be negated by lower margins
owing to higher coking coal costs. We forecast standalone PAT of Rs18bn
(+3%QoQ) in India.
SAIL – We expect profits to increase 7%QoQ to Rs9.0bn mainly led by 9%
increase in volumes. We expect margins to decline by US$3/t to US$103/t
led by higher coking coal costs, though this will be partly cushioned by
absence of Rs2.3bn LTA related charges taken in 1Q FY12.
Jindal Steel and Power – We expect consolidated PAT to increase 4%QoQ
to Rs9.7bn in 2Q. We forecast steel volumes to increase 8%QoQ and ASP to
increase 6%QoQ. We expect blended power tariff of Rs3.80/kwh (+1%QoQ).
However we expect power sales volumes to decline 3%QoQ due to
announced maintenance shutdowns at two of the power units. Our
standalone PAT forecast for JSPL is Rs5.9bn, up 26% QoQ.
JSW Steel – We forecast profits (standalone) to decline 39%QoQ to Rs3.5bn
in 2Q. We expect realizations to be marginally lower in 2Q. Also costs are
likely to increase as impact of higher coking coal costs starts coming thru. In
addition impact of Karnataka mining ban will partially come thru in Sept Q.
We expect EBITDA/t to decline to US$137/t in 2QFY12 from US$181/t in 1Q
FY12.
Coal India: We forecast PAT of Rs27.4bn, down 34%QoQ (+61%YoY). We
forecast dispatches to decline 6%YoY to 94mt due to disruptions led by rains
and logistic bottlenecks. However, we expect ASP to be flat QoQ at
Rs1365/t.We assume CIL starts providing for wage cost hikes Sept Q
onwards. We expect employee costs to increase by 9%QoQ in Sept Q.
Sesa Goa – We expect profits to increase 9%YoY (decline 55%QoQ) to
Rs3.8bn. Given strong seasonality in iron ore volumes, YoY comparison is
more meaningful. This is led by 9%YoY increase in ASP due to higher iron
ore spot prices. We expect volumes to decline 59%QoQ and 2% on a YoY
basis led by closure of Orissa mines, export restrictions and mining ban in
Karnataka.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Metals
Potential Result Outperformers: JSPL
Potential Result Underperformers: JSW Steel, Tata Steel
In the September Q on a QoQ basis, we expect aggregate profit to decline 23%;
EBITDA to decline 19% and sales to decline 4%. On a YoY basis, we expect
profits to grow 17% and EBITDA to grow 20% on YoY basis. In Sept Q, base
metal prices were flat QoQ for Zinc, Cu and lead, but Al LME was down 7%QoQ.
Weaker INR should support higher realizations. In steels, we expect marginal
improvement in volumes and flat ASP on a QoQ basis. But domestic margins for
most steel cos will likely be lower due to full impact of higher coking coal prices.
Sterlite – We forecast PAT to decline 3%QoQ to Rs14.8bn. Zinc LME was
flat QoQ in September Q but INR was marginally weaker (-1.5%QoQ). We
forecast refined zinc volumes of 192.4kt (flat QoQ) and Al volumes of 60.7kt
(flat QoQ) in Sept Q. We estimate Sterlite Energy to contribute Rs802mn to
2QFY12 EBITDA.
Hindalco – We forecast profits to decline 10%QoQ to Rs5.3bn and EBITDA
to decline 6%QoQ. We forecast Al volumes to increase 4%QoQ and Cu
volumes to be flat QoQ. We expect full impact of higher coal costs to kick in
this quarter.
Nalco – We expect profits to decline by 10%QoQ to Rs3.4bn. We expect Al
LME to decline 7%QoQ. Also full impact of coal price revision in June Q will
start coming thru Sept Q onwards in our view. We forecast alumina volumes
to increase 2%QoQ and aluminum volumes to decline 14%QoQ.
Tata Steel – We forecast consol. PAT to decline 29%QoQ to Rs10.4bn in
September Q led by lower margins at TSE (Corus, -US$34/t QoQ). We
expect TSE margins to decline QoQ led by lagged impact of higher input
costs. We expect TSE volumes to decline 2%QoQ led by softer demand in
Europe owing to macro headwinds. In India, we expect EBITDA to be flat as
we expect 7%QoQ increase in volumes to be negated by lower margins
owing to higher coking coal costs. We forecast standalone PAT of Rs18bn
(+3%QoQ) in India.
SAIL – We expect profits to increase 7%QoQ to Rs9.0bn mainly led by 9%
increase in volumes. We expect margins to decline by US$3/t to US$103/t
led by higher coking coal costs, though this will be partly cushioned by
absence of Rs2.3bn LTA related charges taken in 1Q FY12.
Jindal Steel and Power – We expect consolidated PAT to increase 4%QoQ
to Rs9.7bn in 2Q. We forecast steel volumes to increase 8%QoQ and ASP to
increase 6%QoQ. We expect blended power tariff of Rs3.80/kwh (+1%QoQ).
However we expect power sales volumes to decline 3%QoQ due to
announced maintenance shutdowns at two of the power units. Our
standalone PAT forecast for JSPL is Rs5.9bn, up 26% QoQ.
JSW Steel – We forecast profits (standalone) to decline 39%QoQ to Rs3.5bn
in 2Q. We expect realizations to be marginally lower in 2Q. Also costs are
likely to increase as impact of higher coking coal costs starts coming thru. In
addition impact of Karnataka mining ban will partially come thru in Sept Q.
We expect EBITDA/t to decline to US$137/t in 2QFY12 from US$181/t in 1Q
FY12.
Coal India: We forecast PAT of Rs27.4bn, down 34%QoQ (+61%YoY). We
forecast dispatches to decline 6%YoY to 94mt due to disruptions led by rains
and logistic bottlenecks. However, we expect ASP to be flat QoQ at
Rs1365/t.We assume CIL starts providing for wage cost hikes Sept Q
onwards. We expect employee costs to increase by 9%QoQ in Sept Q.
Sesa Goa – We expect profits to increase 9%YoY (decline 55%QoQ) to
Rs3.8bn. Given strong seasonality in iron ore volumes, YoY comparison is
more meaningful. This is led by 9%YoY increase in ASP due to higher iron
ore spot prices. We expect volumes to decline 59%QoQ and 2% on a YoY
basis led by closure of Orissa mines, export restrictions and mining ban in
Karnataka.
No comments:
Post a Comment