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Media
Potential Result Outperformers: Sun TV
Potential Result Underperformers: Zee TV, DB Corp
Result Expectations – Key Highlights
Check with media planners indicate muted ad spends for months of July, August
and pick up in September. Consequently we believe 2Q likely to be another
muted quarter. Expect strong ad growth from DB Corp in Print and Sun TV in
broadcasting space. Ad growth likely to challenging for zee, could report yoy
declines. Margins likely to be under pressure for print driven by new launches
and circulation increases.
We now see downside risk to our estimates for the sector. However, contrary to
expectations we believe demand for 3Q is robust. We expect muted performance
from all key players except Sun TV.
Zee: Forecast decline of 6% yoy in ad revenue during the quarter, led by
lower revenues from sports. Revenues ex sports likely to be flattish. EBITDA
margins likely to remain muted at ~23% down 400bps yoy. Forecast flattish
growth yoy in net profits for the quarter.
Sun TV: Forecast 5% yoy growth in ad revenues. Pricing hikes implemented
during the year and higher ad growth on two key channels – Surya
(Malayalam GEC) and Kiran (Malayalam Movies) should help drive strong
top line growth. Expect margins to be stable. PAT likely to grow 12% yoy.
DB Corp: Forecast 16% yoy growth in ad revenues led by 15% growth in
print and 25% growth in radio business. EBITDA margins likely to be
impacted by higher newsprint cost and recent launches in Nashik (July 2011)
and Jalgaon (Sept 2011) we forecast EBITDA margins of 25% vs. 32% last
year. PAT likely down ~14% yoy driven by lower margins and forex losses
from MTM of creditors (imported new print costs).
Jagran Prakashan. Forecast 10% yoy growth in ad revenues. EBITDA
margins at 26% down 600bps, impacted by higher newsprint cost and
increase in circulation for Dainik Jagran/ recent launch of Punjabi Jagran..
PAT likely down 16% yoy.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Media
Potential Result Outperformers: Sun TV
Potential Result Underperformers: Zee TV, DB Corp
Result Expectations – Key Highlights
Check with media planners indicate muted ad spends for months of July, August
and pick up in September. Consequently we believe 2Q likely to be another
muted quarter. Expect strong ad growth from DB Corp in Print and Sun TV in
broadcasting space. Ad growth likely to challenging for zee, could report yoy
declines. Margins likely to be under pressure for print driven by new launches
and circulation increases.
We now see downside risk to our estimates for the sector. However, contrary to
expectations we believe demand for 3Q is robust. We expect muted performance
from all key players except Sun TV.
Zee: Forecast decline of 6% yoy in ad revenue during the quarter, led by
lower revenues from sports. Revenues ex sports likely to be flattish. EBITDA
margins likely to remain muted at ~23% down 400bps yoy. Forecast flattish
growth yoy in net profits for the quarter.
Sun TV: Forecast 5% yoy growth in ad revenues. Pricing hikes implemented
during the year and higher ad growth on two key channels – Surya
(Malayalam GEC) and Kiran (Malayalam Movies) should help drive strong
top line growth. Expect margins to be stable. PAT likely to grow 12% yoy.
DB Corp: Forecast 16% yoy growth in ad revenues led by 15% growth in
print and 25% growth in radio business. EBITDA margins likely to be
impacted by higher newsprint cost and recent launches in Nashik (July 2011)
and Jalgaon (Sept 2011) we forecast EBITDA margins of 25% vs. 32% last
year. PAT likely down ~14% yoy driven by lower margins and forex losses
from MTM of creditors (imported new print costs).
Jagran Prakashan. Forecast 10% yoy growth in ad revenues. EBITDA
margins at 26% down 600bps, impacted by higher newsprint cost and
increase in circulation for Dainik Jagran/ recent launch of Punjabi Jagran..
PAT likely down 16% yoy.
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