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Media
India
Demystifying IRS Q2 2011: Steady performance across companies. Our analysis of IRS
(Indian Readership Survey) Q2 2011 reveals (1) continued growth in readership of Indian
print media and (2) steady performance across the listed companies HTML/HMVL, DBCL and
JAGP (survey period of April 2010-March 2011 does not capture new expansions). We
reiterate our positive view on Hindi/regional print media given the structural advertising
growth opportunity; reiterate ADD on HTML. We focus on yoy changes in readership given
the trend perspective; we highlight qoq changes where they could signal a change in trend.
Continued gains for HTML/HMVL across English and Hindi markets
The average issue readership (AIR) of English dailies increased ~4% yoy (Q2 2011 over Q2 2010)
to reach 17.7 mn (Exhibit 1). HTML’s English daily, Hindustan Times (HT), remains joint leader with
Times of India (TOI) in the Delhi market (Exhibit 2). HT consolidated its runners-up position in
Mumbai with ~27% yoy gain in readership; DNA has started to reinvest in the market (~8% yoy
growth) but the battle is HT’s to lose since it has started to gain advertising traction (though far
behind the leader TOI). However, our concerns on Real Estate and BFSI advertising in metro
markets preclude a more positive view. The AIR of HTML’s business daily, Mint, increased 45% yoy
to reach 240K, consolidating its runners-up position.
The AIR of Hindi dailies increased ~6% yoy to reach 63.2 mn (Exhibit 3), reflecting a relatively
robust environment for print media in Hindi markets. HMVL’s Hindi daily, Hindi Hindustan (HH),
consolidated its leadership position in the key BJH (Bihar-Jharkhand) market though competition
also gained driven by cover price action across the market. The AIR of HH increased ~18% yoy to
reach 12.0 mn led by market share gains in UP-Bihar markets. HH witnessed a modest slowdown
in growth in the Uttar Pradesh-Uttaranchal market on a qoq basis as its focus in this period had
shifted to maintaining its leadership position in BJH market given emerging competition from DB
Corp (re-launch of Patna edition in March 2010). However, the focus returned to UPU expansion
with the launch of the Gorakhpur edition in December 2010 (IRS Q4 2011).
DBCL gains readership in core/legacy market despite new entrants
The AIR of DBCL’s Hindi daily, Dainik Bhaskar (DB), increased ~7% yoy to reach 14.2 mn (18.0 mn
including Gujarati daily Divya Bhaskar). DB consolidated its position in the home MPCG (Madhya
Pradesh-Chhattisgarh) market with ~14% yoy growth despite rising competition led by new
entrants (Nai Dunia and Patrika, Exhibit 6). DB has preemptively launched hyper-local editions in
MPCG to protect its market share (readership as well as advertising) and raise entry barriers for
competition; the strategy seems to be working (1QFY12). DBCL’s overall strong performance was
understated due to IRS limitations, as Jharkhand expansion is not yet counted; nonetheless, DBCL
recorded gains in legacy markets of Punjab, Rajasthan and Gujarat.
JAGP’s renewed investments likely start to bear fruit in UP-Bihar markets
The AIR of JAGP’s Hindi daily, Dainik Jagran (DJ), increased ~3% yoy to reach 16.4 mn (17.1 mn
including Hindi tabloid I-Next). DJ conceded modest market share to runners-up Amar Ujala (AU)
and HH in the home UPU (Uttar Pradesh-Uttaranchal) market (Exhibit 7); DJ was behind the curve
in re-investing in core markets post the robust recovery in advertising environment in FY2010.
However, we highlight (1) headline numbers understate DJ’s steady performance in UPU market,
where it has successfully retained its urban market share (Exhibit 8) and (2) JAGP’s renewed
circulation investments starting from 2HFY11 may have started to bear fruit with robust 3% qoq
growth in readership, led by strategically important UP-Bihar markets. JAGP is also investing in its
niche brands (Mid-Day, I-Next) but the turnaround will take time.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Media
India
Demystifying IRS Q2 2011: Steady performance across companies. Our analysis of IRS
(Indian Readership Survey) Q2 2011 reveals (1) continued growth in readership of Indian
print media and (2) steady performance across the listed companies HTML/HMVL, DBCL and
JAGP (survey period of April 2010-March 2011 does not capture new expansions). We
reiterate our positive view on Hindi/regional print media given the structural advertising
growth opportunity; reiterate ADD on HTML. We focus on yoy changes in readership given
the trend perspective; we highlight qoq changes where they could signal a change in trend.
Continued gains for HTML/HMVL across English and Hindi markets
The average issue readership (AIR) of English dailies increased ~4% yoy (Q2 2011 over Q2 2010)
to reach 17.7 mn (Exhibit 1). HTML’s English daily, Hindustan Times (HT), remains joint leader with
Times of India (TOI) in the Delhi market (Exhibit 2). HT consolidated its runners-up position in
Mumbai with ~27% yoy gain in readership; DNA has started to reinvest in the market (~8% yoy
growth) but the battle is HT’s to lose since it has started to gain advertising traction (though far
behind the leader TOI). However, our concerns on Real Estate and BFSI advertising in metro
markets preclude a more positive view. The AIR of HTML’s business daily, Mint, increased 45% yoy
to reach 240K, consolidating its runners-up position.
The AIR of Hindi dailies increased ~6% yoy to reach 63.2 mn (Exhibit 3), reflecting a relatively
robust environment for print media in Hindi markets. HMVL’s Hindi daily, Hindi Hindustan (HH),
consolidated its leadership position in the key BJH (Bihar-Jharkhand) market though competition
also gained driven by cover price action across the market. The AIR of HH increased ~18% yoy to
reach 12.0 mn led by market share gains in UP-Bihar markets. HH witnessed a modest slowdown
in growth in the Uttar Pradesh-Uttaranchal market on a qoq basis as its focus in this period had
shifted to maintaining its leadership position in BJH market given emerging competition from DB
Corp (re-launch of Patna edition in March 2010). However, the focus returned to UPU expansion
with the launch of the Gorakhpur edition in December 2010 (IRS Q4 2011).
DBCL gains readership in core/legacy market despite new entrants
The AIR of DBCL’s Hindi daily, Dainik Bhaskar (DB), increased ~7% yoy to reach 14.2 mn (18.0 mn
including Gujarati daily Divya Bhaskar). DB consolidated its position in the home MPCG (Madhya
Pradesh-Chhattisgarh) market with ~14% yoy growth despite rising competition led by new
entrants (Nai Dunia and Patrika, Exhibit 6). DB has preemptively launched hyper-local editions in
MPCG to protect its market share (readership as well as advertising) and raise entry barriers for
competition; the strategy seems to be working (1QFY12). DBCL’s overall strong performance was
understated due to IRS limitations, as Jharkhand expansion is not yet counted; nonetheless, DBCL
recorded gains in legacy markets of Punjab, Rajasthan and Gujarat.
JAGP’s renewed investments likely start to bear fruit in UP-Bihar markets
The AIR of JAGP’s Hindi daily, Dainik Jagran (DJ), increased ~3% yoy to reach 16.4 mn (17.1 mn
including Hindi tabloid I-Next). DJ conceded modest market share to runners-up Amar Ujala (AU)
and HH in the home UPU (Uttar Pradesh-Uttaranchal) market (Exhibit 7); DJ was behind the curve
in re-investing in core markets post the robust recovery in advertising environment in FY2010.
However, we highlight (1) headline numbers understate DJ’s steady performance in UPU market,
where it has successfully retained its urban market share (Exhibit 8) and (2) JAGP’s renewed
circulation investments starting from 2HFY11 may have started to bear fruit with robust 3% qoq
growth in readership, led by strategically important UP-Bihar markets. JAGP is also investing in its
niche brands (Mid-Day, I-Next) but the turnaround will take time.
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