Goldman Sachs:: Key Things to Watch: October 10 – October 16

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In China, we expect CPI inflation to remain elevated in September, while exports growth is likely to show moderation. On the
central bank policy front, we expect the Bank of Korea and Bank Indonesia to stay on hold and the Monetary Authority of
Singapore to shift to a neutral SGD stance. In the US, retail sales would be key to watch for the latest trends in consumer
spending.
China
Money and credit (Sep) (Oct 10-15)
Trade (Sep) (Oct 13)
CPI, PPI (Sep) (Oct 14)
CPI inflation likely remained elevated in September
 We expect CPI inflation to remain elevated in September because of sticky food
prices. The yoy growth is likely to be largely comparable to that in August and
probably slightly higher by 0.1 ppt or 0.2 ppt.
 The yoy PPI is likely to show a visible softening as upstream prices have remained
weak while last year’s base rose significantly.
 We believe the amount of loans extended in September is likely to be slightly
higher than that in August (Rmb544 billion).
 Exports growth is likely to show some moderation. Although last September’s base
was still low, we believe its sequential growth is likely to fall after showing very
robust growth in August which was probably an anomaly.
India
Industrial production (Aug) (Oct 12)
WPI (Sep) (Oct 14)
Industrial production likely stayed weak in August
 We expect industrial production (IP) growth to remain weak at 4.5% yoy in August
on the back of the poor performance of various activity indicators like the
Infrastructure Index, the PMI etc.
 We expect September WPI inflation to likely come at 9.8% yoy, same as in August,
mainly due to the rise in the prices of primary articles, especially food. The Fuel
Index also went up after an increase in petrol prices.
Korea
Central bank policy meeting (Oct 13)
We expect the Monetary Policy Committee to stay on hold in October
 We do not expect the Bank of Korea to raise the policy rate in the October
Monetary Policy Committee meeting, given the elevated financial stress in Europe.
Singapore
Central bank policy meeting (Oct 14)
Advance GDP (3Q) (Oct 14)
Retail sales (Aug) (Oct 14)
A shift to a ‘neutral’ SGD stance
 We now think that an even greater reduction of the slope to a 0% appreciation
stance is the most likely scenario, in light of the increased downside risks to growth
and given where the SGD NEER is currently trading.
 A shift to a ‘neutral’ SGD stance is therefore now our baseline forecast for the
Monetary Authority of Singapore meeting in October.
Indonesia
Central bank policy meeting (Oct 11)
Bank Indonesia likely to keep rates on hold
 We expect Bank Indonesia to keep rates on hold at 6.75% at their upcoming
meeting. We have also now removed the rate hikes previously forecasted for next
year—we now expect the central bank to keep rates unchanged through 2012.
Philippines
Exports (Aug) (Oct 11)
The Philippines’ exports to sustain its weak trend
 The Philippines’ exports remained weak in July, again dragged down by the poor
performance in electronic exports. We forecast August exports to fall 4.0% yoy,
versus the consensus expectations of a 4.4% yoy decline.
US
FOMC minutes (Oct 11)
Advance retail sales (Sep) (Oct 14)
September retail sales key to watch for the latest trends in consumer spending
 Retail sales weaker than expected in August. Hurricane Irene possibly a small
negative, though the mix of components does not clearly indicate that it was the
only factor depressing sales
Japan
Machinery orders (Aug) (Oct 12)
Economy Watchers Survey (Sep) (Oct 11)
Private-sector machinery orders likely rose in August
 We expect private-sector machinery orders (excluding those from the shipbuilding
and electric power sectors) to rise 2.1% mom in August. This compares to a fall of
8.2% in July, but the trend remains lacklustre.
 Supply-side sentiment has been boosted by the transition to terrestrial digital
broadcasts and energy-saving related demand, but we think the effect of this is
wearing off. We forecast a further lowering of consumer sentiment to 44.0 in
September from 45.2 in August.