Please Share:: 
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Automobiles
India
Festive season off to a strong start: Auto volumes for September 2011 bettered our
expectations for all manufacturers. Passenger car volumes remained subdued in
September while two wheeler and commercial vehicle volumes remained buoyant.
Maruti Suzuki volumes are expected to decline in 2HFY12E due to a strong base effect
while two wheeler and commercial vehicle volume growth is also likely to moderate, in
our view. We advise investors to remain selective in the sector.
Scooters and export volumes boosted TVS Motor volumes
TVS Motors reported 17% yoy growth in volumes in Sep 2011. Scooter and export volumes
increased by 30% and 35% yoy, respectively, which masked the low single digit growth in the
domestic motorcycle segment for TVS Motors. Suzuki Motorcycles (+29% yoy), Honda
Motorcycles (+44% yoy) and Yamaha (35% yoy) also reported a strong growth in volumes in
September. Hero Motocorp and Bajaj Auto have not reported numbers thus far but we expect
strong volume growth from them as well.
Maruti reported a 17% yoy decline in domestic volumes
Maruti Suzuki reported a 17% yoy decline in domestic volumes while export volumes were also
impacted by the strike at the Manesar plant. We estimate Maruti lost close to 18,000-20,000 units
in production volumes in September 2011 due to the strike at the Manesar plant. The strike has
ended as workers have agreed to sign the “good conduct bond” and production is expected to
normalize in the next two days. Passenger car industry volumes are expected to report flat volume
growth in September, in our view, after a 10% yoy decline in volumes in August 2011 boosted by
a strong show from Hyundai, Toyota, Volkswagen and recovery in volumes of Tata Motors.
Mahindra and Tata Motors surprise on the upside
Mahindra and Mahindra posted 31% yoy growth in volumes, boosted by strong growth of
Maxximo + Gio (+42% yoy) and tractor volumes (+41% yoy). Passenger UVs (including pick ups)
volume growth moderated to 7% yoy due to a strong base effect. We expect M&M’s volume
growth to moderate in 2HFY12E due to the base effect.
Tata Motors also beat expectations (+23% yoy growth) in September 2011 driven by strong
growth in LCV and utility vehicle volumes. Domestic MHCV volumes reported a 9% yoy growth
while domestic LCV volumes (+47% yoy) continued to post strong numbers. Passenger vehicle
volumes grew by 10% yoy boosted by 60% yoy growth in utility vehicle volumes and 64% yoy
growth in Indica volumes (aided by launch of the new Indica Vista). Nano volumes continue to
remain a drag, posting a 47% yoy decline in September 2011. Indigo volumes also declined by
11% yoy.
We expect a 5% decline in Maruti Suzuki volumes in 2HFY12E due to strong base effect, while we
expect M&M and Tata Motors to report 11% and 6% yoy growth in volumes in 2HFY12E.
We maintain our positive view on M&M, Tata Motors and Maruti Suzuki
We believe passenger car volume growth is likely to remain muted over 2HFY12E while we expect
two wheeler and commercial vehicle volume growth to moderate as well in 2HFY12E. We expect
raw material costs to decline in 2HFY12E which is likely to boost operating margins for auto
companies. We maintain our positive view on M&M, Tata Motors and Maruti Suzuki due to
attractive valuations.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Automobiles
India
Festive season off to a strong start: Auto volumes for September 2011 bettered our
expectations for all manufacturers. Passenger car volumes remained subdued in
September while two wheeler and commercial vehicle volumes remained buoyant.
Maruti Suzuki volumes are expected to decline in 2HFY12E due to a strong base effect
while two wheeler and commercial vehicle volume growth is also likely to moderate, in
our view. We advise investors to remain selective in the sector.
Scooters and export volumes boosted TVS Motor volumes
TVS Motors reported 17% yoy growth in volumes in Sep 2011. Scooter and export volumes
increased by 30% and 35% yoy, respectively, which masked the low single digit growth in the
domestic motorcycle segment for TVS Motors. Suzuki Motorcycles (+29% yoy), Honda
Motorcycles (+44% yoy) and Yamaha (35% yoy) also reported a strong growth in volumes in
September. Hero Motocorp and Bajaj Auto have not reported numbers thus far but we expect
strong volume growth from them as well.
Maruti reported a 17% yoy decline in domestic volumes
Maruti Suzuki reported a 17% yoy decline in domestic volumes while export volumes were also
impacted by the strike at the Manesar plant. We estimate Maruti lost close to 18,000-20,000 units
in production volumes in September 2011 due to the strike at the Manesar plant. The strike has
ended as workers have agreed to sign the “good conduct bond” and production is expected to
normalize in the next two days. Passenger car industry volumes are expected to report flat volume
growth in September, in our view, after a 10% yoy decline in volumes in August 2011 boosted by
a strong show from Hyundai, Toyota, Volkswagen and recovery in volumes of Tata Motors.
Mahindra and Tata Motors surprise on the upside
Mahindra and Mahindra posted 31% yoy growth in volumes, boosted by strong growth of
Maxximo + Gio (+42% yoy) and tractor volumes (+41% yoy). Passenger UVs (including pick ups)
volume growth moderated to 7% yoy due to a strong base effect. We expect M&M’s volume
growth to moderate in 2HFY12E due to the base effect.
Tata Motors also beat expectations (+23% yoy growth) in September 2011 driven by strong
growth in LCV and utility vehicle volumes. Domestic MHCV volumes reported a 9% yoy growth
while domestic LCV volumes (+47% yoy) continued to post strong numbers. Passenger vehicle
volumes grew by 10% yoy boosted by 60% yoy growth in utility vehicle volumes and 64% yoy
growth in Indica volumes (aided by launch of the new Indica Vista). Nano volumes continue to
remain a drag, posting a 47% yoy decline in September 2011. Indigo volumes also declined by
11% yoy.
We expect a 5% decline in Maruti Suzuki volumes in 2HFY12E due to strong base effect, while we
expect M&M and Tata Motors to report 11% and 6% yoy growth in volumes in 2HFY12E.
We maintain our positive view on M&M, Tata Motors and Maruti Suzuki
We believe passenger car volume growth is likely to remain muted over 2HFY12E while we expect
two wheeler and commercial vehicle volume growth to moderate as well in 2HFY12E. We expect
raw material costs to decline in 2HFY12E which is likely to boost operating margins for auto
companies. We maintain our positive view on M&M, Tata Motors and Maruti Suzuki due to
attractive valuations.
No comments:
Post a Comment