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India leading China on TD-LTE?; 3G ecosystem developing rapidly
QCOM India-On Event takeaways: 3G ecosystem developing fast
Our interaction with industry participants at the Qualcomm India-On
conference reinforces our view that the 3G ecosystem (handsets/content) is
developing rapidly and should help Bharti/Idea to capitalize on the 3G
opportunity in next 9-12 months. As such we reiterate our Buy ratings on
both Bharti and Idea. We found strong focus on launching low-end
smartphones to ensure mass adoption of 3G. Qualcomm estimates data
as % of revenues to increase to 30% by 2016 (from 15% currently) and
expects smartphones to show 233% growth in India from 2010-2015.
On 3G rollout, Idea appeared more aggressive than Bharti
Following our discussion with vendors and comments from Bharti/Idea, we
believe Idea might have a better 3G footprint by end of FY12. We note that
Idea is aiming to cover 3,000 towns vs. 1,000 towns by Bharti. In our view,
Bharti appears to be more focused on quality vs. coverage for Idea. We
remain unsure whose strategy will be more successful in the near term.
LTE ecosystem development lags that of 3G, but pace picking up
At the event, there were announcements on launch multi-mode TD-LTE
devices by Huawei, ZTE, Quanta and Bandrich using MDM9x00 chipsets.
Vendors indicated that most of these devices are commercially available
(others will be available by the end of 2011) and are already shipping some
of them to Clearwire in US, Softbank in Japan. One of the reasons why we
see TD-LTE ecosystem is developing so rapidly is that vendors are
leveraging on the already available FD-LTE prototype(s) and scale.
Read-across for TD-LTE deployment in China
We agree with Qualcomm that Chinese government licensing rather than
TD-LTE technology seems to be the deciding factor for TD-LTE launch in
China. China Mobile (CM) hopes to launch TD-LTE in early 2013. Judging
by the progress of TD-LTE in the US, India and Japan we do not rule out
that Clearwire, Softbank and Reliance Industries may launch TD-LTE before
CM, giving CM a learning curve advantage (unlike in TD-SCDMA) and
potentially putting pressure on the Chinese government to licensing TDLTE sooner. We believe that 2013 could potentially be an inflection year for
TD-LTE to help decelerating CM’s market share loss.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
India leading China on TD-LTE?; 3G ecosystem developing rapidly
QCOM India-On Event takeaways: 3G ecosystem developing fast
Our interaction with industry participants at the Qualcomm India-On
conference reinforces our view that the 3G ecosystem (handsets/content) is
developing rapidly and should help Bharti/Idea to capitalize on the 3G
opportunity in next 9-12 months. As such we reiterate our Buy ratings on
both Bharti and Idea. We found strong focus on launching low-end
smartphones to ensure mass adoption of 3G. Qualcomm estimates data
as % of revenues to increase to 30% by 2016 (from 15% currently) and
expects smartphones to show 233% growth in India from 2010-2015.
On 3G rollout, Idea appeared more aggressive than Bharti
Following our discussion with vendors and comments from Bharti/Idea, we
believe Idea might have a better 3G footprint by end of FY12. We note that
Idea is aiming to cover 3,000 towns vs. 1,000 towns by Bharti. In our view,
Bharti appears to be more focused on quality vs. coverage for Idea. We
remain unsure whose strategy will be more successful in the near term.
LTE ecosystem development lags that of 3G, but pace picking up
At the event, there were announcements on launch multi-mode TD-LTE
devices by Huawei, ZTE, Quanta and Bandrich using MDM9x00 chipsets.
Vendors indicated that most of these devices are commercially available
(others will be available by the end of 2011) and are already shipping some
of them to Clearwire in US, Softbank in Japan. One of the reasons why we
see TD-LTE ecosystem is developing so rapidly is that vendors are
leveraging on the already available FD-LTE prototype(s) and scale.
Read-across for TD-LTE deployment in China
We agree with Qualcomm that Chinese government licensing rather than
TD-LTE technology seems to be the deciding factor for TD-LTE launch in
China. China Mobile (CM) hopes to launch TD-LTE in early 2013. Judging
by the progress of TD-LTE in the US, India and Japan we do not rule out
that Clearwire, Softbank and Reliance Industries may launch TD-LTE before
CM, giving CM a learning curve advantage (unlike in TD-SCDMA) and
potentially putting pressure on the Chinese government to licensing TDLTE sooner. We believe that 2013 could potentially be an inflection year for
TD-LTE to help decelerating CM’s market share loss.
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