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Well positioned for overall growth…
�� Strong foothold in domestic & international formulations
• Lupin is one of the most consistent Pharma companies which has
grown consistently for the last 23 quarters. It is the only Indian
company to have presence in both branded and generic space in
the US market.
• In the domestic formulation market, Lupin is growing at ~16-17%
annually. It has a strong presence in therapies like Cardiac, Antiinfectives
and Anti-TB segments.
• For US market, it has filed 148 ANDAs with the USFDA, received
approval for 48 ANDAs and launched 30 products. 14 out of these
30 products enjoy highest market share.
• Lupin is the 5th largest generic player in the US in terms of
prescriptions. It also enjoys highest success rate among Indian
players in US litigations for para IV launches.
• Around 60 ANDAs were filed with Para IV certification, of which
15 have first to file status (four ANDAs solo exclusivity). Market
size of these opportunities would be around US$ 30 billion.
• It plans to launch 3-4 products in the high margin Oral
Contraceptives space in the US and has pipeline of at least 20
products to be launched post approval in the next 3-4 years.
• The company is one of the early entrants in the Japanese generic
market, the second biggest market after US
�� Going ahead
• Launch of Oral Contraceptives along with a branded product
Allernaze will improve the margins going ahead.
• It is also planning to launch 2 FTFs i.e. generic Fortamet (antidiabetic,
annual sales US$88 million) and Ziprasidone (Antipsycotic,
share 180 days exclusivity, annual sales of US$1.2
billion)
• Good overall growth, high return ratios and one of the best
working capital management are hallmarks for Lupin.
• It expects at least 50 bps improvements in EBITDA margins every
fiscal on account of niche launches in the US and Japan and
Chronic focus in Indian and emerging markets.
• It will increase R&D spend in high margin Bio Similar space
Valuation
Lupin is growing in all major geographies to reduce its reliance on a
particular geography. Taking into account the good show in a tough
environment and robust product pipeline along with legacy strongholds
such as a strong balance sheet, working capital efficiency and trustworthy
management, we remain bullish on the stock.
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