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MacqTech Express
Tech supply chain disruption update
Event
We update our analysis of tech supply chain disruptions stemming from the
11 March earthquake in Japan. Our checks show an improved situation for BT
resin and KF polymer and a recovery in digital camera production. We remain
concerned about semiconductor wafer supply (unchanged).
Impact
The situation continues to improve this week, in particular in mechanical
components and BT material. Alps on Monday indicated that the remaining
two plants in Fukushima Prefecture have started production. Our checks
indicate that domestic production is now back to 70% of the pre-quake level.
Our checks with Hirose also indicate that all three domestic plants have
suffered little physical damage and production has recovered to 60~70% of
the pre-quake level. Hirose thinks that it will take another 1-2 months before it
fully recovers due to some shortage of key parts supplied by the supporting
companies. The capacitor situation has not changed much with power
rationing impacting utilization rate at Taiyo Yuden and TDK. But Nippon
Chemi-Con has set out a timetable for the recovery of major domestic plants.
It will take 1-3 months for the major domestic plants to recover. BT material
has improved substantially as Mitsubishi Gas Chemical announced that it
plans to recover back to pre-quake level production by early May.
Recovering camera production: In the precision instruments sector, 66% of
suspended plants have resumed after the earthquake. Since our last update
“From tsunami to power outage” on Monday, Canon has resumed its
Nagasaki Plant (DSC) on Wednesday and Canon Chemicals (toner) on
Monday, and plans to start operating its Ohita Plant (DSC) from Friday. Nikon
started operations of Sendai Nikon (DSC) and Miyagi Nikon Precision
(stepper devices). Fujifilm's high-end DSC (X100) production in Miyagi has
also been resumed.
Kureha's production of KF polymer (polyvinylidine fluoride) for lithium ion
batteries (used as a binder), had been scheduled to be restored by the
second half of April. However on 31 March the company indicated that some
portion of production has already been restarted. The company has ~70%
share in this material.
LCD (ITO) – more clarity for JX Nippon Mining. JX Nippon Mining
(estimated 45% market share) targets ITO production to resume in April with
shipments from the end of May. While there had been no prior official
announcement regarding a specific date, our own initial assumption was for a
resolution in April (so this is slightly later). Mitsui Mining (estimated 25%
market share), whose ITO production is in Kyushu, was not affected.
Outlook
We continue to assume the duration of disruption for most key components is
2-3 months, rather than 4-6 months, and that demand will be pushed out but
not lost. The key risk remains that firms that rely on materials in short supply
may continue to talk down their CY2Q (June quarter) outlooks.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
MacqTech Express
Tech supply chain disruption update
Event
We update our analysis of tech supply chain disruptions stemming from the
11 March earthquake in Japan. Our checks show an improved situation for BT
resin and KF polymer and a recovery in digital camera production. We remain
concerned about semiconductor wafer supply (unchanged).
Impact
The situation continues to improve this week, in particular in mechanical
components and BT material. Alps on Monday indicated that the remaining
two plants in Fukushima Prefecture have started production. Our checks
indicate that domestic production is now back to 70% of the pre-quake level.
Our checks with Hirose also indicate that all three domestic plants have
suffered little physical damage and production has recovered to 60~70% of
the pre-quake level. Hirose thinks that it will take another 1-2 months before it
fully recovers due to some shortage of key parts supplied by the supporting
companies. The capacitor situation has not changed much with power
rationing impacting utilization rate at Taiyo Yuden and TDK. But Nippon
Chemi-Con has set out a timetable for the recovery of major domestic plants.
It will take 1-3 months for the major domestic plants to recover. BT material
has improved substantially as Mitsubishi Gas Chemical announced that it
plans to recover back to pre-quake level production by early May.
Recovering camera production: In the precision instruments sector, 66% of
suspended plants have resumed after the earthquake. Since our last update
“From tsunami to power outage” on Monday, Canon has resumed its
Nagasaki Plant (DSC) on Wednesday and Canon Chemicals (toner) on
Monday, and plans to start operating its Ohita Plant (DSC) from Friday. Nikon
started operations of Sendai Nikon (DSC) and Miyagi Nikon Precision
(stepper devices). Fujifilm's high-end DSC (X100) production in Miyagi has
also been resumed.
Kureha's production of KF polymer (polyvinylidine fluoride) for lithium ion
batteries (used as a binder), had been scheduled to be restored by the
second half of April. However on 31 March the company indicated that some
portion of production has already been restarted. The company has ~70%
share in this material.
LCD (ITO) – more clarity for JX Nippon Mining. JX Nippon Mining
(estimated 45% market share) targets ITO production to resume in April with
shipments from the end of May. While there had been no prior official
announcement regarding a specific date, our own initial assumption was for a
resolution in April (so this is slightly later). Mitsui Mining (estimated 25%
market share), whose ITO production is in Kyushu, was not affected.
Outlook
We continue to assume the duration of disruption for most key components is
2-3 months, rather than 4-6 months, and that demand will be pushed out but
not lost. The key risk remains that firms that rely on materials in short supply
may continue to talk down their CY2Q (June quarter) outlooks.
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