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OIL INVENTORY INDICATORS
Key observations for inventory data - 25 Mar'11
q We believe the spread between WTI (USD$106/bbls) and Brent (USD$117/
bbls) is going to persist and can widen going forward, mainly due to
storage capacity at Cushing, USA is close to its peak level. Currently,
stocks at Cushing has jumped to a record high of 41.9 Mn bbls as against
a maximum storage capacity of 44 Mn bbls. Generally, it takes three
weeks to get actual physical delivery of crude after expiration of contract.
Hence, inventors won’t be able to take delivery of crude for next
two weeks (due to capacity constraints) and will have to sell any long
crude oil position leading to pressure on WTI crude prices whereas Brent
will go up due to geo-political issues in Libya.
q Indian crude oil basket consist of Brent crude oil. We expect Brent crude
oil to remain high in the short term till supply concern from Libya settles
down. This will lead to higher raw material cost for OMCs leading to
pressure on their profitability as we don’t expect retail fuel price hike till
April’11 end. Finally, we are bullish on crude oil prices.
q US commercial crude oil inventories were up 2.9 Mn bbls (WoW) to
355.71 Mn bbls in the week ended 25th Mar'11.
q Stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery point for the US light sweet
crude contract jumped to a record high.
q Gasoline stocks fell 2.68 Mn bbls (WoW) to 217 Mn. Both finished gasoline
and blending components inventories were down. This reflects refiners
draining winter grade fuel ahead of summer driving season providing
some support to US gasoline futures.
q Imports of crude into the US gained 141 Kbopd to 9.1 Mn bopd. In the
last four weeks ending 25 Mar'11, crude imports averaged 8.8 Mnbopd,
down 70 Kbopd from the comparable period in 2010.
q The input of crude into US refineries declined 17 Kbopd to 14.3 Mn bopd
in the latest week with refinery operating at 84.1% of the capacity.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News
Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
OIL INVENTORY INDICATORS
Key observations for inventory data - 25 Mar'11
q We believe the spread between WTI (USD$106/bbls) and Brent (USD$117/
bbls) is going to persist and can widen going forward, mainly due to
storage capacity at Cushing, USA is close to its peak level. Currently,
stocks at Cushing has jumped to a record high of 41.9 Mn bbls as against
a maximum storage capacity of 44 Mn bbls. Generally, it takes three
weeks to get actual physical delivery of crude after expiration of contract.
Hence, inventors won’t be able to take delivery of crude for next
two weeks (due to capacity constraints) and will have to sell any long
crude oil position leading to pressure on WTI crude prices whereas Brent
will go up due to geo-political issues in Libya.
q Indian crude oil basket consist of Brent crude oil. We expect Brent crude
oil to remain high in the short term till supply concern from Libya settles
down. This will lead to higher raw material cost for OMCs leading to
pressure on their profitability as we don’t expect retail fuel price hike till
April’11 end. Finally, we are bullish on crude oil prices.
q US commercial crude oil inventories were up 2.9 Mn bbls (WoW) to
355.71 Mn bbls in the week ended 25th Mar'11.
q Stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery point for the US light sweet
crude contract jumped to a record high.
q Gasoline stocks fell 2.68 Mn bbls (WoW) to 217 Mn. Both finished gasoline
and blending components inventories were down. This reflects refiners
draining winter grade fuel ahead of summer driving season providing
some support to US gasoline futures.
q Imports of crude into the US gained 141 Kbopd to 9.1 Mn bopd. In the
last four weeks ending 25 Mar'11, crude imports averaged 8.8 Mnbopd,
down 70 Kbopd from the comparable period in 2010.
q The input of crude into US refineries declined 17 Kbopd to 14.3 Mn bopd
in the latest week with refinery operating at 84.1% of the capacity.
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