25 January 2011

UBS: Asia refining margins reach 22-month high - Most preferred -Essar Oil

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UBS Investment Research
Asia Oil Explorer
Asia refining margins reach 22-month high
􀂄 Refining margins at highest level since Feb 2009
The Reuters Singapore complex refining margin index averaged US$7.6/bbl last
week, up from US$6.3/bbl the previous week. Diesel and fuel oil spread versus
Dubai were up US$1.8/bbl and US$1.2/bbl, respectively WoW, while gasoline
spread rose US$0.4/bbl to US$14.2/bbl. PX spread (to naphtha) rose 5.3% to close
at US$774/t, while benzene spread rose 8.6% to close at US$271/t.

􀂄 US crude stocks fall for the sixth week
Brent prices fell 1.2%, ending last week at US$97.0/bbl, while WTI crude oil
prices fell 3.9%, ending last week at US$88.0/bbl. Oil rose towards the end of
week after renewed confidence that the European debt crisis could be solved
pushed the dollar to a two-month low against the euro. According to the US
Department of Energy (DOE) for the week ended 14 January, crude inventories
rose 2.6mbbls to 335.7mbbls vs. Reuters’ consensus of a 0.6mbbls draw. Products
inventories rose more than expected, with gasoline stocks piling up by 4.4mbbls
and distillate stocks by 1.0mbbls.
􀂄 Integrated stocks have outperformed in the past month
For the month ended 21 January and based on simple average performance,
integrated stocks in Asia under UBS coverage rose 2.1%, while, on an average,
refining and E&P stocks fell 2.5% and 3.8%, respectively.
􀂄 Top picks
Our Most Preferred stocks in Asia are PetroChina (0857.HK), SinoTech, Essar Oil,
Siam Cement, S-Oil, and Nan Ya Plastics.

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