29 December 2010

Emkay -29.12.10- United Phosphorus

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United Phosphorus
MAI deal signifies investment opportunity in UPL


BUY

CMP: Rs 161                                       Target Price: Rs 230

n     ChemChina has proposed to acquire MAI (a leading global generic crop protection company) at US$ 2.4 bn
n     The deal signifies investment opportunity in UPL since UPL’s current valuations at EV/EBITDA of 6x are at 40% discount to proposed deal’s valuations
n     UPL’s management may lower its guidance for FY11 by ~20% which poses near term risk to the stock
n     Despite near term risks, we believe that investors can buy this stock at current levels with 18 months target of Rs 230

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