Technicals: Bank of Baroda, Piramal Glass, Everest Industries, Karnataka Bank, Hatsun Agro, CORE Education, Godrej Consumer, ::Business Line

Could you please advise on short- and long-term view of Godrej Consumer Products and CORE Education and Technologies? Is it right time to buy these stocks?

Vishal

Godrej Consumer Products (Rs 554.9): Godrej Consumer Products is in a multi-year bull run. The stock recorded the high of Rs 601 in June and is currently trading close to this peak. The long-term trend in the stock is up. It has strong support in the region between Rs 370 and Rs 406. Long-term investors can hold the stock as long as it trades above this band.

Break below Rs 370 will drag the stock to Rs 346 or Rs 289. Long-term target on a strong break above Rs 600 is Rs 755.

Short-term supports for the stock are at Rs 480 and Rs 458. Investors with greater risk appetite can use declines to these levels to accumulate the stock with stop at Rs 455.

Piramal Glass (Rs 114): BUY ::Business Line

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Piramal Glass : Target 155:: Anand Rathi

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Piramal Glass                                Price    108                                                                                                                             Target   155

~ Company Description

Piramal Glass- The Ajay Piramal group  company with its operations spread across India, Sri Lanka & USA has presence in the Pharma, Specialty Food & Beverage (SF&B) and Cosmetics & Perfumery (C&P) segment.

Piramal Glass (erstwhile Gujarat Glass) has an experience of more than 20 years of glass making in India. With acquisition of Ceylon Glass, Sri Lanka in 1999 and The Glass group, US in 2005, the company made a foray in international arena. Acquisition of the US company gave PGL an access to new technology enabling an entry into the developed, niche flocannage glass market and a large customer base in the premium C&P segment (like Arden, Estee Lauder, L’Oreal, Revlon etc.).

Result Update: Jagran Prakashan, Piramal Glass:: Emkay

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Result Update

Jagran Prakashan Reco: ACCUMULATE CMP: Rs 97 Target Price: Rs 116 Ad growth rebounds, cost pressure remain ·      Standalone revenue at Rs3240mn, up 13.3% yoy (better than our est. of Rs3159mn), driven by ad growth of 14.9% yoy  and 9.8% yoy growth in circulation revenue ·      Ad rev. of Rs2.2bn was up 14.9% yoy (our est. of 11.5%). Event & Outdoor grew 14.6% yoy to Rs289mn. Digital revenue at Rs23mn 15.5% yoy ·      EBITDA was down 5.2% yoy to Rs851mn with EBITDA margin at 26.3% (our est. of 25.7%). Raw material and SG&A cost increased 31.4% and 15.2% yoy, leading to EBITDA decline    ·      We have re-aligned our estimates, cut EPS est. by 10.0%/8.4% for FY12E/13E. Downgrade to ACCUMULATE from BUY with revised TP of Rs116 (from Rs 135)

Piramal Glass Reco: BUY CMP: Rs 115 Target Price: Rs 155 Capacity relining impacts profitability ·      Q2FY12 was below expectations – revenues grew 9.5% yoy to Rs 3.4bn, EBIDTA margins declined 170bps yoy to 21.4% and APAT de-grew by 19% to Rs 188mn ·      Relining in US & Indian furnace resulted in flat growth for C&P. Demand headwinds in Brazil and Turkey led to de-growth in Mass segment. Europe market remains healthy ·      Capacity expansion well on track; major relining of capacities completed. FY13E to witness healthy revenue growth aided by expanded capacities ·      Marginal revision in earnings, FY12E revised downwards by 4% to Rs 12.7 and FY13E by 2% to Rs 17.1. Maintain BUY with revise target price of Rs155/Share

Buy Piramal Glass Ltd - Company Report:: Unicon

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Investment Rationale:

• Focus on high-margin C&P business to drive revenues

• Significant cost advantages Labour Arbitrage

• Capacity expansion to meet the future demand

• Stronger balance sheet to support growth

Valuation:

At the CMP of ~INR 92, the stock trades at ~8.0x and 5.2x of its FY12E and FY13E earning respectively. The company has been steadily shifting its product mix from low margin commodity business to high yield specialized business of C&P. We expect the C&P contribution to company's revenue to increase from 49% in FY11 to 56% in FY13E which is expected to boost EBITDA margins from 23% in FY11 to 25% in FY13E.We have valued the company at ~8x of it FY13E earnings which is at premium compared to other domestic peers, due to PGL's better margins profile and return ratios. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock with a target price of INR143.

Piramal Glass ::Emkay: Top Buys

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TP : Rs205
Investment Rationale
§ Well enriched business model - with multiple drivers
§ Cosmetics and Perfumery (C&P) division continues to surge, share to total revenues rises to 56% - Expect
segment revenues to grow at 23.8% CAGR over FY11-FY13E
§ Specialty F&B business has regained growth momentum with robust growth in Sri Lankan operations and revival
in US subsidiary - Expect 15.5% revenue CAGR during FY11-13E
§ Capacity expansion of Rs 2.6bn through Greenfield and realignments is on track and full benefit would realize in
FY13E – To aid revenue CAGR of 15% in FY11-FY13E period
§ Rising share of C&P division to enhance EBIDTA margins – Expect EBIDTA margins to rise from 22.8% in FY11
to 25.2% in FY13E
Valuations
§ At CMP, the stock is trading at a P/e of 8X FY12E and 5.8X FY13E consolidated earnings of Rs16.9 and Rs23.3
per share respectively

For full list click link below:

Emkay: Top Buys and Sells

Piramal Glass - Growth on track, Maintain BUY: Emkay

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Piramal Glass

Growth on track, Maintain BUY

BUY

CMP: Rs 139                                       Target Price: Rs 205

---

n     Piramal Glass (PGL) Q1FY12 in line with expectations – revenue growth at 14% yoy to Rs 3.2bn and APAT growth at 75.7% to Rs 290.1mn

n     C&P continues with robust performance – grows 30% yoy and contributes 56% of revenues in Q1 FY12, highest till date

n     Capacity expansion to aid growth momentum - 160TPD Greenfield capacity for Mass C&P market and realignment of furnace adding 50-60 TPD capacity

n     Fine-tuning of earnings, FY12E revised downwards by 10% to Rs 16.9 and FY13E remains unchanged. Retain BUY with revise target price of Rs205/Share

Piramal Glass Growth Drivers Intact, Maintain BUY :: EMkay

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Piramal Glass

Growth Drivers Intact, Maintain BUY

BUY

CMP: Rs 130                                       Target Price: Rs 220

---

n     Piramal Glass (PGL) Q4FY11 beat expectations driven by stronger traction & product mix – revenue growth at 15.2% yoy to Rs 3.3bn and APAT growth at 185.7% to Rs 327.1mn.

n     Green shoots in FY11 performance with rise in C&P share and EBIDTA margins at 22.8% - Also, hinting at further traction in ensuing years

n     Capacity expansion undertaken - cash flows utilized for capex and balance sheet de-leveraging may trickle after FY13E

n     Introduce FY13E earnings of Rs23.3/Share – Roll EV/Ebidta to FY13E - Retain Buy rating with revised target price of Rs220/Share

Piramal Glass:: Emkay: Top Recommendations: April 2011

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RECO : BUY TP : Rs160
Investment Rationale
§ Well enriched business model - with multiple drivers
§ Cosmetics and Perfumery to emerge as a strong growth driver - Expect segment revenues to grow at 15.2%
CAGR (FY10-12E) to Rs6.4 bn in FY12E
§ PGL to reduce focus on pharmaceutical business - Expect revenues to decline by 3.5% CAGR to Rs3.1bn during
FY10-12E
§ Momentum in SF&B to continue - Expect 15.5% revenue CAGR during FY10-12E
§ Enrichment of Sales Mix - to improve profitability
§ Restructuring exercise to bear fruit
§ Already incurred capex - now in harvesting stage
§ Eyeing positive cash flow - improvement in balance sheet
Valuations
§ At CMP, the stock is trading at 11.4X FY11E and 6X FY12E consolidated earnings of Rs9.9 and Rs18.7 per
share respectively

Buy Piramal Glass - Target:146 :Quant Investor

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Piramal Glass (Piramal Group Enterprise)

CMP:106                    Target:146                    

Investment Rationale

~ Geo Graphically Disseminated player

~ Major Revenue Drivers

-          Cosmetics & Perfumery   Segment

-          Market Leader in Pharma Segment

      -     Food & Beverage Segment

      -     Decoration Services:

~ Significant Cost Advantages among global players

~ Continuous customer acquisitions enhancing market share globally

~ Lucrative Global glass packaging industry

Buy Piramal Glass Q3FY11 Result Update; Both Fire & Ice; Target: Rs 160 :: Emkay

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Piramal Glass

Both Fire & Ice, Maintain BUY

BUY

CMP: Rs 109                                       Target Price: Rs 160

---

n     Piramal Glass (PGL) Q3FY11 performance buoyed by product mix and operating leverage - revenue growth at 10.7% yoy to Rs3.2 bn and APAT doubles yoy to Rs231 mn

n     Tweaked near-term business strategy – future cashflow earmarked for debt repayment would be diverted to capacity expansion – investing Rs1.0 bn for 160 tpd furnace

n     Strong 9MFY11 performance- aligning FY11E estimates – FY11E earnings revised 7.7% to Rs9.9/Share and retained FY12E earnings of Rs18.8/Share

n     Risk from leveraged balance sheet remains, But valuations attractive – FY12E EV/Ebidta at 4.2X - Maintain BUY with target price of Rs160/Share

Piramal Glass -Diwali Muharat Picks by Emkay

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7.1x FY2012E
CMP : Rs133
RECO : BUY
TP : Rs160

Investment Rationale
§ Well enriched business model - with multiple drivers

§ Cosmetics and Perfumery to emerge as a strong growth driver - Expect segment revenues to grow at 12.6%
CAGR (FY10-12E) to Rs6.1 bn

Piramal Glass Shift Continues, Maintain BUY :: Emkay

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Piramal Glass

Shift Continues, Maintain BUY

BUY

CMP: Rs 137                                       Target Price: Rs 160

---

n     Piramal Glass (PGL) Q2FY11 performance exceeds expectation – revenue growth at 2.6% yoy to Rs3.1 bn and APAT up 3700% yoy to Rs206 mn

n     C&P contribution improves from 43% of revenues to 48% of revenues – C&P register revenue growth of 14.6% yoy to Rs1.4 bn

n     Fine-tune assumptions on interest expenditure and material costs – upgrade FY11E earnings by 9.9% (Rs9.3/Share) and FY12E earnings by 3.0% (Rs18.7/Share)

n     Maintain BUY with revised target price of Rs160/Share