Showing posts with label DBS. Show all posts
Showing posts with label DBS. Show all posts
26 January 2011
DBS: Economics Overview of Asia
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Southeast Asia, India
• SG: Industrial production for December due today is expected to register 20.3% YoY,
down from 39.8% in the previous month. While a modest pullback in pharmaceutical
output cannot be discounted, a softer production growth from the electronics segment
could be the key factor for the moderation. Apart from seasonal effect where producers
typically front-load their Christmas season output to October, global electronics inventory
restocking is also coming to an end. This is evident in the recent SEMI book-to-bill
ratio as well as the global semiconductor sales numbers, which both are moderating
from the peak in early 2010. Concomitantly, the PMI numbers are also showing some
signs of weakening in manufacturing growth. The broad manufacturing PMI index
though continues to show that the sector remains in expansion mode, the pace of
growth is moderating. Moreover, the PMI sub-indices show that new orders and production
are declining while inventory and stock levels are building up, suggesting that the
manufacturing sector could be in for a soft patch ahead. Couple that with the Chinese
New Year effect in the next two months, in which plants in China will typically go into
a lull period during the festive season, the headline production index will surely
experience significant volatility.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Southeast Asia, India
• SG: Industrial production for December due today is expected to register 20.3% YoY,
down from 39.8% in the previous month. While a modest pullback in pharmaceutical
output cannot be discounted, a softer production growth from the electronics segment
could be the key factor for the moderation. Apart from seasonal effect where producers
typically front-load their Christmas season output to October, global electronics inventory
restocking is also coming to an end. This is evident in the recent SEMI book-to-bill
ratio as well as the global semiconductor sales numbers, which both are moderating
from the peak in early 2010. Concomitantly, the PMI numbers are also showing some
signs of weakening in manufacturing growth. The broad manufacturing PMI index
though continues to show that the sector remains in expansion mode, the pace of
growth is moderating. Moreover, the PMI sub-indices show that new orders and production
are declining while inventory and stock levels are building up, suggesting that the
manufacturing sector could be in for a soft patch ahead. Couple that with the Chinese
New Year effect in the next two months, in which plants in China will typically go into
a lull period during the festive season, the headline production index will surely
experience significant volatility.
24 January 2011
DBS research: Monday’s The Week Ahead: Jan 24, 2011
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Monday’s The Week Ahead
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Monday’s The Week Ahead
Southeast Asia, India
• IN: All eyes will be on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy meeting tomorrow.
Inflation has leaped higher in December led by an especially large rise in food prices.
Expectations are for a 25bps hike but there are calls for a 50bps hike from many
quarters to nip the inflation genie in the bud. DBS expectation is for a 25bps hike at
this meeting but we think this will soon be followed by another 25bps hike at the
meeting in March. We also expect the repo rate to rise to 7.50% by end-Dec11.
We continue to think food inflation is increasingly a structural issue driven by rising
demand or at least enduring gaps in food demand and supply (more on this in our
special report out today). However, the recent rise in food prices is especially concentrated
in vegetable prices. Both the narrowly based food inflation and the extremely sharp
rise in vegetable prices suggest December’s food inflation is more a temporary weather
related phenomenon. Of course, this doesn’t mean generalized price pressures are
absent or that food inflation can be completely down-played. Core inflation as proxied
by WPI manufacturing inflation ex-food has also been on the rise especially in the last
three months. In December, ‘core’ inflation rose to 8% (MoM, saar) and in 4Q10 core
inflation averaged 6% (QOQ, saar), both above central bank comfort level of 5%.
14 January 2011
Economics: Southeast Asia, India:: DBS
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Economics
Greater China, Korea
• KR: The Bank of Korea lifted the benchmark 7-day repo rate by 25bps to 2.75%
yesterday, against market consensus but in line with our forecast. This rate move is
clearly aimed at curbing the rise in inflation and inflation expectations. Oil and
food prices have increased markedly in tandem with the global uptrend. Core
inflation is picking up gradually and continuously as a result of the sustained
recovery in aggregate demand in the domestic economy. Housing prices have also
resumed the upward trend since the government relaxed mortgage lending
controls late last year. CPI inflation (3.5% YoY as of Dec10) is expected to stay
elevated at around 3.7% in 1Q11 and 4% in 2Q11, topping the BOK’s policy target
of 2-4%. Core inflation is also likely to approach 3% by the end of this year. We
have revised the full-year inflation forecast to 3.7% for 2011, up from the previous
estimate of 3.4%.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Economics
Greater China, Korea
• KR: The Bank of Korea lifted the benchmark 7-day repo rate by 25bps to 2.75%
yesterday, against market consensus but in line with our forecast. This rate move is
clearly aimed at curbing the rise in inflation and inflation expectations. Oil and
food prices have increased markedly in tandem with the global uptrend. Core
inflation is picking up gradually and continuously as a result of the sustained
recovery in aggregate demand in the domestic economy. Housing prices have also
resumed the upward trend since the government relaxed mortgage lending
controls late last year. CPI inflation (3.5% YoY as of Dec10) is expected to stay
elevated at around 3.7% in 1Q11 and 4% in 2Q11, topping the BOK’s policy target
of 2-4%. Core inflation is also likely to approach 3% by the end of this year. We
have revised the full-year inflation forecast to 3.7% for 2011, up from the previous
estimate of 3.4%.
12 January 2011
Daily Breakfast Spread -DBS Group Research 12 Jan 2011
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Economics
Greater China, Korea
• CN: M2 still managed to advance 19.7% in 2010 despite persistent monetary
tightening on all fronts (average M2 growth between 2000 and 2008 is 17%). The
growth of money is also clearly much faster than the economy. The differential
between M2 and nominal GDP last year was about 700bps, way higher than the
average of 100bps between 2000 and 2008. The surge of money supply is consistent
with the big jump of foreign reserves to USD2.85trn from USD2.39trn in 2009. Even
after discounting sterilization done by the PBOC, the expansionary impact of
surging foreign reserves on domestic monetary supply will subsequently ramp up
inflationary pressure. This in turn will dwarf borrowing costs in real terms over time.
India Equity Research Reports, IPO and Stock News Visit http://indiaer.blogspot.com/ for complete details �� ��
Economics
Greater China, Korea
• CN: M2 still managed to advance 19.7% in 2010 despite persistent monetary
tightening on all fronts (average M2 growth between 2000 and 2008 is 17%). The
growth of money is also clearly much faster than the economy. The differential
between M2 and nominal GDP last year was about 700bps, way higher than the
average of 100bps between 2000 and 2008. The surge of money supply is consistent
with the big jump of foreign reserves to USD2.85trn from USD2.39trn in 2009. Even
after discounting sterilization done by the PBOC, the expansionary impact of
surging foreign reserves on domestic monetary supply will subsequently ramp up
inflationary pressure. This in turn will dwarf borrowing costs in real terms over time.
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